Second Mover Advantage and Entry Timing

We describe a model of entry timing assuming that a second mover can benefit from observing the experience of a first mover. We focus on how market attractiveness characteristics such as size and cost affect the time until first entry. The effects depend on whether the number of participants is exogenous or endogenous. In the former case, a more attractive market leads to earlier entry. In the latter case, it leads to later entry. Treating the number of firms as an integer, free entry leads to non‐monotone, but testable, effects of market attractiveness on entry timing.     

Prospective utility study of patients with multiple cardiovascular events

Objectives: The effects of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) events on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and the time dependency of these effects are unknown. This study aimed to characterize health utilities in ACS patients to aid development of future economic models estimating the cost per quality-adjusted life-year impact of ACS events and potential treatments.

Methods: Multi-center, non-interventional, longitudinal evaluation of health utility in patients experiencing ACS or stroke events. EuroQol-5 dimension 3 level (EQ-5D-3L) surveys were sent to patients (≥18 years) from three UK centers, 1 month after hospital discharge for myocardial infarction (MI), unstable angina (UA), or stroke. Patient demographics, lifestyle, and baseline utility score were collected in the first survey. Follow-up surveys were sent at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months to prospectively capture utility and subsequent health events. Two methods of patient identification were adopted—prospective, where the patient’s qualifying events occurred after the study index date, and retrospective, where the patient’s qualifying event occurred prior to the study index date. General healthy population utility values were assumed for pre-event HRQoL.

Results: Between January 2011 and March 2014, 2,103 prospectively (n?=?1,350)/retrospectively (n?=?753) identified patients (mean age?=?68.3 years; 67.9% male) responded: MI?=?55.9% (n?=?1,176), UA?=?42.7% (n?=?898), stroke?=?1.4% (n?=?29); 24% had type 2 diabetes. Post-event utility values were lower than general healthy population values, although significant differences in utility between subsequent 6 (n?=?1,031, change?=?–0.002), 12 (n?=?1,096, change?=?–0.008), 18 (n?=?1,246, change?=?–0.007), and 24 (n?=?1,277, change?=?–0.004) month timepoints were not detected. Through multivariate regression analyses, wheelchair use, current smoking, and secondary mental and joint health events were associated with the greatest statistically significant utility decrements.

Conclusions: This study indicates that health utility decreases following a cardiovascular event and, although some improvement occurs over the subsequent 24 months, general healthy population utility is not necessarily attained.     

The integrability of generalized working models

This paper demonstrates the integrability of the generalized Working (1943) model as proposed by Laitinen, Theil and Raparla (1983).     

Estimating dynamic R&D choice: an analysis of costs and long‐run benefits

This article estimates a dynamic structural model of discrete Research and Development (R&D) investment and quantifies its cost and long‐run benefit for German manufacturing firms. The model incorporates linkages between R&D choice, product and process innovations, and future productivity and profits. The long‐run payoff to R&D is the proportional difference in expected firm value generated by the investment. It increases firm value by 6.7% for the median firm in high‐tech industries but only 2.8% in low‐tech industries. Simulations show that reductions in maintenance costs of innovation significantly raise investment rates and productivity, whereas reductions in startup costs have little effect.     

Structural Econometrics of First-price Auctions: A Survey of Methods

Over the past decade, the structural analysis of auction data has attracted considerable attention. The structural approach relies on the hypothesis that observed bids are the equilibrium bids of the gametheoretic auction model under consideration. In this paper, we survey econometric methods that have been recently developed for estimating first-price auction models within the private value paradigm. In particular, we focus on two important issues. A first question is to know whether the structural elements of the model, mainly the underlying latent distribution of bidders private values, are identifiable from observations, usually the observed bids. A second issue concerns the estimation of the underlying density. This can be performed through different methods ranging from parametric to nonparametric ones. After a brief review of basic auction models, we first consider the simple first-price auction model with- in the symmetric independent private value paradigm with a nonbinding reserve price. In a second part, more advanced models are considered allowing for a binding reserve price, affiliation among private values, and asymmetry among bidders. The conclusion presents some future lines of research. Depuis une dizaine d'années, I'analyse structurale des mécanismes en jeu dans la conduite des enchères suscite une attention considérable. Cette démarche structurale sefonde sur I'hypothèse selon laquelle les offres observées constituent les offres à l'équilibre d'un modèle d'enchères basé sur la théorie des jeux. Dans le présent exposé, nous pas sons en revue les méthodes économétriques qui ont été mises au point ces derniéres années pour construire des modéles d'enchéres au premier prix dans le cadre du paradigme des valeurs personnelles. Nous nous intéressons en particulier à deux questions importantes: la première est de savoir si les éléments structuraux du modèle, essentiellement la distribution latente sous-jacente des valeurs personnelles des enchérisseurs sont identifiables à partir des observations, c'est-à-dire habituellement les offres observées. La deuxième question concerne l'estimation de la densité sousjacente. Elle peut se faire par différentes méthodes allant des paramétriques au non paramétriques. Après une brève revue des modèles d'enchères de base, nous considérons d'abord le modèle d'enchère, simple au premier prix dans le cadre du paradigme des valeurs personnelles indépendantes symétriques, assorti d'un prix minimum non liant. Dans la seconde partie, nous examinons des modèles plus avancés, autorisant unprix minimum liant, Vaffiliation parmi les valeurs personnelles et I'asymétrie parmi les enchérisseurs. En conclusion, nous proposons quelques avenues de recherches futures.     

Emissions Trading, Wealth Transfers and the Wounded Bull Scenario in Power Generation

Electricity generators accept that emissions trading is fundamental to meeting CO₂ reduction targets. But unless a percentage of permits are allocated, existing generators will face non-trivial wealth transfers. Seldom contemplated in academic works are the adverse economic consequences of an all-auction approach to emissions trading. Using Victoria to illustrate, we find that once CO₂ prices exceed $17.50/t, the marginal coal generator facing large wealth transfers will withhold generating capacity to raise prices and recoup stranded investments, thus becoming a 'wounded bull' in the market place. This has material welfare implications with modelling results indicate an intermediate-run 300 per cent increase in wholesale power prices.     

Estimation of nonparametric inefficiency effects stochastic frontier models with an application to British manufacturing

The purpose of this paper is to propose a simple stochastic frontier model with a non-parametric specification for covariates affecting the mean of technical inefficiency. We derive a simple two-step semiparametric estimation procedure to estimate the frontier parameters as well as the mean of the technical inefficiency. The consistency of the estimator and its asymptotic normality are shown. The proposed method is illustrated using a large panel data set of British manufacturing firms.     

The Spatial Integration of Paddy Markets in Vietnam

This paper examines whether there is spatial integration between and within paddy markets in the north and south of Vietnam. The empirical model developed uses estimates of transfer costs to generalise Ravallion's model of spatial market integration to allow for threshold effects. A sequential testing strategy is used to test for market segmentation, the number of thresholds, long‐run integration, informational efficiency and the Law of One Price within an error‐correction framework. We find neither threshold effects nor weak evidence of paddy market integration between northern and southern Vietnam. There is, however, evidence of both threshold effects and stronger market integration within the Red and Mekong River deltas. Whenever price spreads exceed their thresholds, at least 60% of price changes are transmitted between regional markets within a month. Nonetheless, the instantaneous version of the Law of One Price only holds for a few regimes and market pairs. These results suggest that national level policies cannot be relied upon to stabilise or support paddy prices in Vietnam. Instead, policies need to be designed with the specific production, consumption and marketing characteristics of northern and southern Vietnam in mind.     

The relationship between corporate social responsibility,financial misstatements and SEC enforcement actions

This study explores the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR), financial misstatements and SEC enforcement actions. We find that firms with higher CSR are less likely to receive SEC enforcement actions for financial misstatements. Drawing on insights from stakeholder theory and the reputational literature, we identify two channels underpinning this relationship: (i) firms with higher CSR are less likely to engage in financial misstatements and (ii) the reputational effect of CSR reduces the likelihood of SEC enforcement actions. We find empirical evidence consistent with both channels.     

International Trade and Income Inequality*

We propose a simple theory that shows a mechanism through which international trade entails wage and job polarization. We consider two countries in which individuals with different abilities work either as knowledge workers, who develop differentiated products, or as production workers, who engage in production. In equilibrium, ex ante symmetric firms attract knowledge workers with different abilities, and this creates firm heterogeneity in product quality. Market integration disproportionately benefits firms that produce high-quality products. This winner-take-all trend of product markets causes a war for talents, which exacerbates income inequality within the countries and leads to labor-market polarization.