The Impact of Surplus Schooling on Worker Productivity

Human capital theory suggests that education enhances worker productivity and is reflected in higher individual earnings. We use data from the 1969 Survey of Working Conditions and the 1973 and 1977 Quality of Employment Surveys, and a model derived from the industrial psychology literature, to test the proposition that workers' education in excess of what their jobs require can have adverse effects on job satisfaction and other correlates of worker productivity. Our results support earlier studies that have found surplus schooling has a negative effect on job satisfaction. Our findings also indicate that the negative impact of surplus schooling on job satisfaction and turnover is more significant for workers with a higher level of surplus education. Finally, the negative effects of surplus schooling appear to change over time.     

Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Inter‐ and Intranational Risk Sharing

This study extends the empirical model of incomplete risk sharing developed by Crucini ( 1999 ) by allowing unequal income pooling and explores the implications of using an alternative measure for aggregate risk. Based on samples from Canadian provinces, G‐7, and OECD countries spanning the years 1961–2008, we show that the empirical procedure used by Crucini tends to overstate the average degree of risk sharing and understate the dispersion of risk sharing, when compared to our unequal income pooling model. The empirical results from our unequal pooling model show that (i) the degree and dispersion of risk sharing across Canadian provinces, G‐7 countries, and OECD countries remain stable over time; (ii) the degree of risk sharing across Canadian provinces is higher than that across the G‐7 and OECD countries; and (iii) the degree of risk sharing seems positively related to equity and trade diversification.     

REVENUE, PROGRESSIVITY, AND THE FLAT TAX

This paper uses detailed household data to analyze revenue potential and progressivity under two popular "flat tax" proposals. The results show that the Hall and Rabushka version of the flat tax would generate $626 billion in revenue in 1993 while the more generous plan of Armey and Shelby would produce only $538 billion. Integrating the individual tax with the business tax indicates that both proposals are progressive. However, there is a substantial shift of the tax burden from the highest income classes to the middle classes in comparison to the current system.     

Federal Judge Ideology: A New Measure of Ex Ante Litigation Risk

Drawing on the political theory of judicial decision making, our paper proposes a new and parsimonious ex ante litigation risk measure: federal judge ideology. We find that judge ideology complements existing measures of litigation risk based on industry membership and firm characteristics. Firms in liberal circuits (the third quartile in ideology) are 33.5% more likely to be sued in securities class action lawsuits than those in conservative circuits (the first quartile in ideology). This result is stronger after the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in the Tellabs case. We next show that the effect of judge ideology on litigation risk is greater for firms with more sophisticated shareholders and with higher expected litigation costs. Furthermore, judicial appointments affect litigation risk and the value of firms in the circuit, highlighting the economic consequences of political appointments of judges. Finally, using our new measure, we document that litigation risk deters managers from providing long‐term earnings guidance, a result that existing measures of litigation risk cannot show.     

论西部大开发的经济布局模式

从西部地区开发的历史和当前发展出发,近期西部大应主要采用点轴开发模式,其主要思路是设计西部地区空间布局的点轴系统;以此为基础确定近期开发建设的重点。     

Terms‐of‐Trade Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes in a Small Open Economy*

We examine the impact of terms‐of‐trade shocks on key macroeconomic variables by numerically solving a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model considers nominal price rigidity under different exchange rate regimes. The numerical solutions obtained are consistent with the empirical regularities documented by Broda (2004), in which output responses to shocks are smoother in floats than in pegs; in moving from pegs to floats, the rise in nominal exchange rate volatility is coupled by the rise in real exchange rate volatility; and in both exchange rate regimes, net foreign assets is the most volatile variable.     

Growth of US Industries and Investments in Information Technology and Higher Education

This paper presents new data on the sources of growth for the US economy over the period 1977-2000. Our principal innovation is the incorporation of detailed information for individual industries, including those involved in the production of information technology equipment and software. We show that economic growth is dominated by investments in information technology and higher education, both for individual industries and the economy as a whole. We also show that a jump in information technology investment, gains in the employment of college-educated workers, and the revival of productivity growth account for the resurgence of the US economy since 1995.     

A Risk Minimizing Strategy for Portfolio Immunization

Consider a fixed-income portfolio whose duration is equal to the length of a given investment horizon. It is shown that there is a lower limit on the change in the end-of-horizon value of the portfolio resulting from any given change in the structure of interest rates. This lower limit is the product of two terms, of which one is a function of the interest rate change only, and the other depends only on the structure of the portfolio. Consequently, this second term provides a measure of immunization risk. If this measure is minimized, the exposure of the portfolio to any interest rate change is the lowest.