Fundamentals or Noise? Evidence from the Professional Basketball Betting Market

This paper uses the betting market for professional basketball games to address the issue of unexplained asset price volatility. A pricing model is presented which identifies two components in point spreads for professional basketball games. Both components—the market's estimate of relative team abilities and an idiosyncratic factor—are essentially unobserved, but can be identified ex post. The structure of this market enables tests of competing hypotheses about point spread variation. The tests reject the hypothesis that variation in the two components represents irrelevant noise. The hypothesis that unobserved fundamentals account for this variation is consistent with the data.     

A model of standard setting in auditing

Abstract. Auditing is modeled as a monitoring device to moderate information asymmetry between a firm manager and a consumer-investor in a contingent claims, general equilibrium model of a production economy. The firm manager may bias his report of state realization and returns to security holders. The role of the audit is to probabilistically discover and correct any such bias. Managers, who share in firm value, choose audit intensity in response to market forces. The market solution is characterized by a lack of unanimity between managers and consumer-investors with respect to audit intensity. This creates a demand by consumer-investors for Central Authority intervention. Standard setting is, thus, modeled as a response to public demands to remedy perceived shortcomings of a market solution. Some of the consequences of such intervention are examined. Résumé. La vérification représente un mécanisme de surveillance servant à réduire l'asymétrie d'information entre le gestionnaire et l'investisseur-consommateur, dans le cadre d'un modèle d‘économie de production fondé sur les réclamations éventuelles et Téquilibre général. Le gestionnaire peut “biaiser” le compte rendu des résultats et rendements présenté aux détenteurs de titres. Le rôle de la vérification consiste à découvrir (de façon probabiliste) et corriger toute forme de ce type de biais. Les gestionnaires, partageant dans la valeur de l'entreprise, choisissent l'intensité de la vérification en réaction aux pressions du marché. L'absence de consensus entre les gestionnaires et les consommateurs-investisseurs quant à l'intensité de la vérification caractérise la solution du marché. Cet état de fait suscite chez les consommateurs-investisseurs une demande d'intervention de la part d'une “autorité centrale”. La normalisation est dès lors assimilée à une réaction face aux demandes du public pour corriger les carences visibles de la solution du marché. Quelques conséquences d'une telle intervention sont étudiées ici.     

Equal Employment Opportunity and the "Managerial Woman" in Japan

Over the past three decades, women have represented an increasing proportion of newly employed four-year college graduates, in Japan. We analyze the determinants of female representation among these new recruits in terms of the supply of female four-year college graduates, the desire of Japanese women to participate in the paid labor force, shortages of male four-year college graduates, and the impact of the Equal Employment Opportunity Law (EEOL) that went into effect in April 1986. Multivariate regression analysis reveals that the supply of female four-year college graduates and the EEOL account for the rising proportion of women among university-educated recruits into the paid labor force. We go on to explore the enhanced, but still limited, career opportunities that have opened up to Japanese women under the EEOL, and we relate their progress to the recent debate over the use of the "mommy track" in managerial hierarchies in the United States.     

Why Did NASDAQ Market Makers Stop Avoiding Odd-Eighth Quotes?

On May 26 and 27, 1994 several national newspapers reported the findings of Christie and Schultz (1994) who cannot reject the hypothesis that market makers of active NASDAQ stocks implicitly colluded to maintain spreads of at least $0.25 by avoiding odd-eighth quotes. On May 27, dealers in Amgen, Cisco Systems, and Microsoft sharply increased their use of odd-eighth quotes, and mean inside and effective spreads fell nearly 50 percent. This pattern was repeated for Apple Computer the following trading day. Using individual dealer quotes for Apple and Microsoft, we find that virtually all dealers moved in unison to adopt odd-eighth quotes.     

A hierarchical approach to the external auditor's evaluation of the internal auditing function*

Abstract. The objective of this study was to examine the external auditor's evaluation of the internal audit function. A hierarchy of the attributes that enter into this decision process was developed based on prior research and with the assistance of Big 8 audit managers. An experiment which used the Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted with 22 audit supervisors and managers. Contrary to previous studies, the results indicated that the competence of the internal auditors was the most important factor, followed by the objectivity and work of the internal auditors. The AHP methodology allowed us to assess which specific attributes were most important to the external auditor's assessment of these factors. However, the variability of the weights of these attributes indicates low agreement among the practitioners as to which attributes are most important. Résumé. Les auteurs de la présente étude avaient pour objectif d'examiner l'évaluation de la fonction de vérification interne par le vérificateur externe. La hiérarchie des attributs qui entrent en ligne de compte dans ce processus de décision a été dressée à partir de travaux de recherche antérieurs et avec la collaboration de chefs de groupe en vérification des huit grands cabinets. Vingt-deux chefs d'équipe et chefs de groupe ont participé à une expérience faisant appel au processus de hiérarchie analytique. Contrairement aux résultats des études précédentes, les résultats de cette étude ont révélé que la compétence des vérificateurs internes était le facteur primordial, suivi de l'objectivité et du travail des vérificateurs internes. La méthodologie du processus de hiérarchie analytique a permis d'évaluer quels attributs précis étaient les plus importants dans l'évaluation de ces facteurs par les vérificateurs externes. Toutefois, l'importance des écarts relevés dans la pondération de ces attributs indique que l'unanimité est loin d'être faite chez les praticiens quant à l'importance relative des attributs.     

Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings

We find that firms mitigate refinancing risk by increasing their cash holdings and saving cash from cash flows. The maturity of firms’ long‐term debt has shortened markedly, and this shortening explains a large fraction of the increase in cash holdings over time. Consistent with the inference that cash reserves are particularly valuable for firms with refinancing risk, we document that the value of these reserves is higher for such firms and that they mitigate underinvestment problems. Our findings imply that refinancing risk is a key determinant of cash holdings and highlight the interdependence of a firm's financial policy decisions.