ECONOMIC VALUATION OF MORTALITY‐RISK REDUCTION: STATED PREFERENCE ESTIMATES FROM THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA

Two internet‐based surveys were conducted with adults aged 35 to 84–885 respondents in the United States and 641 respondents in Canada—to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for reducing mortality risks through out‐of‐pocket costs for health‐care programs. All respondents were asked a series of choice questions followed by a payment‐card question. Causes of death included cancer and heart attack. Levels of annual mortality‐risk reduction were 1, 2, and 5 in 10,000. Converted to values of statistical life, results were in the range of $4–5 million (2002 U.S. dollars) for the choice‐question results for a 2‐in‐10,000 annual risk reduction for illness‐related mortality. U.S. and Canadian results were similar. The payment‐card results were about 50% lower than the choice‐question results. WTP to reduce mortality risk was essentially the same for cancer and heart attack. The results showed WTP weakly increasing with age, and no evidence of lower WTP for older adults versus middle‐aged adults. (JEL Q51)     

中国的健康人力资本与收入增长

本文首次将人口健康作为人力资本的一种形式,探讨其在中国经济奇迹中的作用。基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据,我们估计了以家庭为基础的个人收入生产函数,发现以下主要结论。首先,个人健康是决定中国家庭人均收入的重要因素。第二,相对而言,农村人口比城市人口的健康经济回报更大。第三,女性比男性的健康经济回报更大。本文首次将人口健康作为人力资本的一种形式,探讨其在中国经济奇迹中的作用。基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据,我们估计了以家庭为基础的个人收入生产函数,发现以下主要结论。首先,个人健康是决定中国家庭人均收入的重要因素。第二,相对而言,农村人口比城市人口的健康经济回报更大。第三,女性比男性的健康经济回报更大。     

HARD OR SOFT? INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS AND INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING AS DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN CHINA*

We examine whether hard infrastructure in the form of more highways and railroads or soft infrastructure in the form of more transparent institutions and deeper reforms lead to more foreign direct investment (FDI). We use data on FDI from the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwanese and Korea to various regions of China from 1990 to 2002. We control for the standard determinants of FDI—regional market sizes, wage rates, human capital and tax policies. Then we add indices of hard and soft infrastructures. We found that empirically soft infrastructure consistently outperforms hard infrastructure as a determinant of FDI.     

Growth of Participant Direction in Defined Contribution Plans

Using data from IRS Form 5500, this study examines the causes and consequences of the shift toward participant direction of investments in defined contribution plans. The analysis reveals that collective bargaining and pension investments in employer stock reduce the chance of a switch to participant direction, whereas below average returns increases the chance. Also, a switch to participant direction increases employee contributions to the pension and reduces the share of assets invested in employer securities.     

Applications of Optimal Stopping in Resource Economics*

Some applications of optimal stopping rules in the analysis of resource economic problems are surveyed. The conceptual foundation for the approach stems from the dual roles of uncertainty and irreversibility in these problems. A stochastic adaptation of Wicksell's ‘tree-cutting’ paradigm is exposited and shown to provide a rigorous methodology that is as intuitive as more familiar contingent-asset approaches. Four resource economic applications are considered: environmental problems, urban development, bioeconomic harvesting and resource project timing and valuation.     

Changes in Task Uncertainty Induced by Zero-Base Budgeting: Using the Thompson and Hirst Models to Predict Dysfunctional Behaviour

Generic budgeting systems such as PPBS and Zero-Based Budgeting (ZBB) are criticized by academics for failing to give consideration to some of the key variables affecting behaviour in budgeting endeavours. Despite this criticism, the literature has devoted little attention to modifications that can be made to make the systems more responsive to different configurations of organizational variables. This paper addresses this oversight in regard to ZBB. In particular the paper discusses ZBB within the context of two variables: (a) the degree of task uncertainty engendered by the system and (b) the character of performance measures used to evaluate units that employ ZBB. The paper argues that ZBB materially increases the degree of task uncertainty. Configured with the type of performance measures used to evaluate departments employing ZBB, the paper maintains that the increase in task uncertainty creates incentives to engage in dysfunctional behaviour, largely in the form of invalid data reporting. It is hypothesized that this problem may be responsible for the general failure of ZBB to lead to large budget re-allocations.     

Half a Career: Discrimination & Railroad Internal Labor Markets

This paper examines the causes and consequences of the racial structure of railroad internal labor markets in the American South. By 1900, many southern railroads hired blacks almost exclusively for middle-level occupations on their trains but did not permit their promotion to top-level positions. This institutionalized bias in promotion helps explain the employment of whites and blacks at identical jobs but different wages. It also explains why it was impossible for some southern railroads to adopt the seniority-based promotion ladders that had become standard on railroads elsewhere in the United States.     

ENERGY UTILITIES, CONSERVATION, AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

Academic and policy debate has centered around an apparent "underinvestment in conservation." This paper outlines traditional explanations for underinvestment and presents a prospect theory analysis of individual conservation behavior. On the basis of investment criteria, individuals seem to discriminate against conservation investments. While these decisions might appear rational as life style decisions, individual choice across different household appliances shows little consistency. For policymaking purposes, understanding and modeling actual behavior is crucial to maximizing social welfare. The insight of certain positive models of human behavior supports economic efficiency arguments for marketplace intervention. This paper argues that because individuals making conservation investment decisions apparently do not act according to the dictates of utilitarian economics, utility sponsored conservation programs are justified on economic efficiency grounds. Finally, in light of prospect theory considerations, the paper suggests marketing guidelines for conservation investments sponsored by electric utilities.     

Comparaison empirique des méthodes d'inférence de probabilités subjectives*

Résumé. Les méthodes d'inférence de probabilités subjectives que sont l'amplitude directe et la bissection ont été comparées par l'auteur en ce qui a trait à l'exactitude, telle que déterminée par l'environnement (fréquence relative), des probabilités résultant de l'application de ces méthodes et à l'acceptabilité des méthodes d'inférence. Chaque participant à l'expérience a utilisé les deux méthodes et attribué à chacune d'elles une cote d'acceptabilité. L'auteur a mis à la disposition des sujets un logiciel d'inférence interactive, comprenant l'affichage graphique sous forme d'histogramme des probabilités selon les deux méthodes d'inférence, afin de les aider et d'assurer une comparaison plus raffinée des méthodes. Des étudiants de deuxième cycle diplômés en gestion, bien renseignés tant sur le contexte de la tâche que sur les probabilités subjectives, se sont prêtés à l'expérience. L'inférence directe a donné des probabilités subjectives beaucoup plus exactes que la bissection et s'est révélée beaucoup plus acceptable aux yeux des participants.