Impact of energy audits on home energy consumption

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of energy audits on home energy consumption rate, and to determine factors affecting participation in energy audit/weatherization programmes. Objectives included: (i) developing a linear model for predicting home energy consumption; (ii) examining the role of home energy audits in consumption rate; (iii) determining whether audit participation had increased over a two-year period; (iv) surveying reasons for non-participation, and (v) identifying sources of audit/conservation information which were most acceptable to consumers. The model expressed home energy consumption per square foot as a linear function of demographic, attitudinal and structural variables. The three most significant predictors in the model were adequacy of information, housing tenure and income. Eight out of 10 conservation measures studied were significantly more likely to exist in the homes of those who had had an audit. Three of these measures were also significant in the model. Study findings included a 7% increase in audit participation from 1981 to 1983. Lack of money and information were the two major factors inhibiting participation. Consumers indicated a need for conservation information from acceptable sources such as short courses or workshops, county extension agents, or skilled craftspeople.     

Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule

Actual federal funds rates in the U.S. have, at times, deviated from the recommendations of a simple Taylor rule. This paper proposes a “nowcasting” Taylor rule that preserves the form of the Taylor rule but encompasses realistic assumptions on information observable to policymakers. Because contemporaneous inflation rates and output gaps are not observable at the time policy is set, policymakers must form “nowcasts.” The optimal nowcast will depend, in part, on forecast uncertainty whenever policymakers have asymmetric costs to over‐ and underpredicting inflation and output. Empirical evidence shows that actual policy rates are consistent with those recommended by a nowcasting Taylor rule.     

TOWARD BEHAVIORAL MODELING OF ALASKA GROUNDFISH FISHERIES: A DISCRETE CHOICE APPROACH TO BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TRAWL FISHERIES

This article implements a discrete choice model of fishery participation in the multispecies trawl fisheries of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands Region off Alaska. Nonparametric estimates of the operation-specific moments of quasirent by fishery and week are used to explain probabilities of choosing different target fisheries. There are pronounced risk aversion, seasonal, and relative performance effects. Notably, the model runs with regularly collected data, so this type of discrete choice modeling can be used routinely in the management and policy evaluation process. Improvements are needed, though, in both the quality and the extent of economic data on fisheries in Alaska and elsewhere in the United States. (JEL Q22, C25, Q28)     

What Can America Learn from the British Tax System?

This paper examines elements of British tax policy and discusses their implications for the US, where several recent proposals would mirror aspects of the British system. These include reducing filing requirements under the individual income tax, indexing capital gains for inflation, cutting mortgage interest deductions, enacting a value added tax, and integrating the corporate and personal income taxes. The paper also discusses implications of the poll tax for tax reform. Britain and America have made different choices involving equity, efficiency, simplicity and other goals. These choices offer the chance to help identify the impact of tax policy. JEL classification: H20.     

House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults

The transaction price of identical housing units can vary widely due to heterogeneity in buyer and seller preferences, matching, and search costs, generating what we term “markups” above or below the average market price. We measure markups for 3.4 million purchase-money mortgages and show that they can predict mortgage defaults and credit losses conditional on default even after accounting for collateral coverage (loan-to-value ratio) and a comprehensive set of other covariates. The findings suggest that standard collateral coverage estimation may be inaccurate, with implications for both individual and portfolio-level credit risk assessment.