A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited

This article reexamines the duration‐based explanation of the value premium using novel estimates of the firms' equity and cash flow durations based on analyst forecasts. We show that the value premium can be explained by cross‐sectional differences in the shares' equity durations, but not by their cash flow durations. Different from the duration‐based explanation of the value premium that explains the value premium with cross‐sectional differences in the firm's cash flow timing, we find that short‐horizon stocks have lower (expected) returns than long‐horizon stocks. This result is consistent with an upward‐sloping equity yield curve.     

Delayed Adjustment and Persistence in Macroeconomic Models

Estimated impulse responses of investment and hiring typically peak well after the impact of a shock. Standard models with adjustment costs in capital and labor do not exhibit such delayed adjustment, but we argue that it arises naturally when we relax the assumption that the production technology is separable over time. This result, which holds for both convex and nonconvex cost functions, is strong enough to match the persistence observed in the data for reasonable parameter values. We discuss some evidence for our explanation and ways to test it.     

Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests

This paper proposes a novel methodology to calibrate the magnitude of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) using market-based stress tests. The macroprudential authority in our paper aims to contain the possibility of a breach of a minimum capital ratio in the event of a severe system-wide shock within a certain permissible failure probability. We apply the methodology by stress-testing major banks in six advanced economies on a quarterly basis over a period of 27 years. The estimates suggest that the cap on the CCyB should not be less than around 1.7% of total assets. Its potential normal-times level is estimated at approximately 0.8% of total assets.     

A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence

We propose a novel theory of intrinsic inflation persistence by introducing trend inflation and Kimball (1995)-type aggregators of individual differentiated goods and labor in a model with staggered price- and wage-setting. Under nonzero trend inflation, the non-CES (constant elasticity of substitution) aggregator of goods and staggered price-setting give rise to a variable real marginal cost of goods aggregation, which becomes a driver of inflation. This marginal cost consists of an aggregate of the goods' relative prices, which depends on past inflation, thereby generating intrinsic inertia in inflation. Likewise, the non-CES aggregator of labor and staggered wage-setting lead to intrinsic inertia in wage inflation, which enhances the persistence of price inflation. With the theory we show that inflation exhibits a persistent, hump-shaped response to monetary policy shocks. We also demonstrate that lower trend inflation reduces inflation persistence and that a credible disinflation leads to a gradual decline in inflation and a fall in output.     

Firm-Level Climate Change Exposure

We develop a method that identifies the attention paid by earnings call participants to firms' climate change exposures. The method adapts a machine learning keyword discovery algorithm and captures exposures related to opportunity, physical, and regulatory shocks associated with climate change. The measures are available for more than 10,000 firms from 34 countries between 2002 and 2020. We show that the measures are useful in predicting important real outcomes related to the net-zero transition, in particular, job creation in disruptive green technologies and green patenting, and that they contain information that is priced in options and equity markets.