Political Culture, Economic Structure and Policy: The Laffont-Tirole Model Extended to Modern Japan

This paper deals with two issues. By linking culture and political systems, we develop alternatives to the "Developmental State" approach and propose, among other types, the "Bureaucratic State" for explaining the case of Japan. We extend the Laffont-Tirole (L-T) model of regulatory capture and propose a "bureaucratic capture" model. Variations of capture are shown to apply, given particular cultural predispositions. The case of atomic energy in Japan and the United States is then studied to assess the predictive efficacy of the extended L-T model. We conclude that cultural predispositions and the corresponding state types affect the degree to which capture takes place.     

The economic consequences of increased disclosure: Evidence from international cross-listings

We examine market behavior around earnings announcements to understand the consequences of the increased disclosure that non-U.S. firms face when listing shares in the U.S. We find that absolute return and volume reactions to earnings announcements typically increase significantly once a company cross-lists in the U.S. Furthermore, these increases are greatest for firms from developed countries and for firms that pursue over-the-counter listings or private placements, which do not have stringent disclosure requirements. Additional tests support the hypothesis that it is changes in the individual firm's disclosure environment, rather than changes in its market liquidity, ownership, or trading venue, that explain our findings.     

Entrepreneurial Dispositions and Goal Orientations: A Comparative Exploration of United States and Russian Entrepreneurs

We refine and extend the study of entrepreneurial dispositions by linking three classic hallmarks of the entrepreneur—achievement motivation, risk–taking propensity, and preference for innovation—to the goal orientations of United States and Russian entrepreneurs. The results suggest that entrepreneurial dispositions vary according to culture and the entrepreneur's primary goal for the venture. The results have important implications for theoretical development linking dispositions and entrepreneurial behavior in different settings and for entrepreneurial education and government policy.     

Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them to answer "what if" type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call "future jump-off date forecasts". Future jump-off date forecasts are valuable because they show policy-makers the likelihood that crucial features of today's forecasts will also be present in forecasts made in the future.