On the backfitting algorithm for additive regression models

We analyse additive regression model fitting via the backfitting algorithm. We show that in the case of a large class of curve estimators, which includes regressograms, simple step-by-step formulae can be given for the back-fitting algorithm. The result of each cycle of the algorithm may be represented succinctly in terms of a sequence of d projections in n-dimensional space, where d is the number of design coordinates and n is sample size. It follows from our formulae that the limit of the algorithm is simply the projection of the data onto that vector space which is orthogonal to the space of all n-vectors fixed by each of the projections. The formulae also provide the convergence rate of the algorithm, the variance of the backfitting estimator, consistency of the estimator, and the relationship of the estimator to that obtained by directly minimizing mean squared distance.     

Forecasting employment : The role of forward-looking behaviour

Manufacturing output per head rose at an unprecedented rate in the UK in 1981/2, and conventional econometric relationships failed to forecast the associated falls in employment. In this paper we estimate manufacturing employment equations in which output expectations play a central role. These compare fabourably with alternative models, and are able to predict most of the large falls in employment over this period.     

Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32

The 2013 Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen and Robert Shiller for their work on empirical asset pricing. Hansen's primary contribution to the cited work was the development of the generalised method of moments (GMM), a statistical method that has proved such a valuable tool for testing the validity of empirical asset pricing models. The public announcement of the award also acknowledges the wider impact of GMM on empirical analysis in economics and beyond, referring to the 1982 Econometrica paper in which Hansen introduced the method as ‘one of the most influential in econometrics’. In this paper, we reflect on how the GMM‐based inference framework has evolved since 1982, reviewing developments on four main issues: model diagnostic testing, moment selection, identification and inference in misspecified models. We also illustrate the broader influence of GMM on econometrics by briefly exploring the connections between GMM and three other estimation methods: indirect inference, moment inequality based techniques, and a group of techniques that can be presented equivalently within either the generalised empirical likelihood or info‐metric frameworks.     

Job preferences of students and new graduates in nursing

This article investigates the preferences of student and newly graduated nurses for pecuniary and nonpecuniary aspects of nursing jobs. It is the first study applying methods based on discrete choice experiments to a developed country nursing workforce. It is also the first to focus on the transition through university training and into work. This is particularly important as junior nurses have the lowest retention levels in the profession. We sample 526 individuals from nursing programmes in two Australian universities. Flexible and newly developed models combining heteroscedasticity with unobserved heterogeneity in scale and preference weights are estimated. Overall, salary remains the most important feature in increasing the probability that a job will be selected. ‘Supportive management/staff’ and ‘quality of care’ follow as the most important attributes from a list of 11 nonpecuniary characteristics. However, the subset of new graduates rank ‘supportive management/staff’ above salary increases, emphasizing the importance of a supportive workplace in the transition from university to the workplace. We find substantial preference heterogeneity and some attributes, such as the opportunity for clinical rotations, are found to be attractive to some nurses while seen as negative by others. Nursing retention could be improved by designing different employment packages to appeal to these different tastes.     

The empire strikes back: Adam Smith,John Stuart Mill,and the Robust Political Economy of empire

Recent scholarship regarding the idea of a U.S. Empire has raised serious questions as to the feasibility and desirability of imperial ambitions. This paper traces the debate over the net-benefit of empire back to the Classical economists. Adam Smith argued that the British Empire was a net cost while John Stuart Mill concluded the same empire was a net benefit. Contemporary arguments about a U.S. Empire map neatly to the divergent views of Smith and Mill. In addition to engaging in an exercise in history of thought, we use Smith’s political economy as a means of adjudicating between the different claims regarding the feasibility of empire. In doing so, we subject the claims of proponents of American Empire against the standard of robust political economy, which holds that intervention must generate desirable outcomes where less than ideal incentive and epistemic conditions hold. In doing so, we conclude that many of the claims made by proponents are fragile under less than ideal conditions.     

Working Capital Management,the Credit Crisis,and Hedging Strategies: Canadian Evidence

This study uses a sample of Canadian natural resource firms during the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008 to examine the influence of firm hedging strategies on their working capital management. Our evidence implies that increased cash holdings and derivatives are alternative ways of hedging risk, and also provides another perspective on the U.S. “trapped cash” controversy as our sample firms are not R&D intensive and do not face the same tax regime as U.S. multinationals.     

Leadership in educational technology: Insights from the corporate world

More than 100 years ago, John Dewey, a major influence in American education, argued for the need to “stimulate the spirit of inquiry into actual fact” (Dewey, 2002, p. 118). The debate among politicians and educators about the structure, purpose, and goals of education and inquiry continues. Yet the world has changed, largely because of widely accessible and versatile technologies. We are unclear how Dewey's spirit of inquiry will grow, die, or reinvent itself through boundaryless tools of inquiry such as the Internet, but the technology is here and will not disappear while educators debate best methods. Twenty‐first‐century society demands new ways to learn and understand, and these new ways of learning require new ways of teaching (McPheeters, 2009/2010). For many students, especially the younger generations, technology intertwines with almost all daily activities, including social contact. Many educators lag behind the technological curve and express frustration at the challenge to shift their educational paradigms toward increasingly technological means of communication and interaction, or entertain “virtual realities” as legitimate educational forums. The purpose of this symposium is to examine the role of technology in transforming higher education. The goal is to seek best methods of using technology more effectively to educate learners for the 21st century. The shifts in society's focus and the characteristics of learners going into the future are also critical, and part of this discussion.     

An examination of ex-ante factors and their influence on equity carve-out long-term performance

This study examines the influence of several ex-ante factors on three-year market-adjusted returns of two-stage carve-out combinations from 1988 to 2006. We observe that several factors maintain their significance over a three-year period after equity carve-out ex-dates. Also, we report that, contrary to Vijh (J Bus 75(1):153–190, 1999), negative three-year carve-out returns are statistically significant. In addition, we note that negative combination carve-out/spin-off three-year returns are higher than those of carve-outs acquired by third parties or reacquired by their parents. Moreover, we observe that our independent variables explain 14.56% of the multiple regression three-year returns for carve-outs. Also, our negative correlation of three-year returns with initial period returns supports the “leaning against the wind” hypothesis of Loughran and Ritter (Rev Financ Stud 15(2):413–443, 2002). In addition, our results for the post-bubble period (2001–2006) provide an extension of the changing issuer objective function noted by Loughran and Ritter (Financ Manage 35(3):23–51, 2004) for IPOs and Hogan and Olson (J Financ Res 27(4):521–537, 2004) for equity carve-outs.