Controlling for Burnout in Estimating Mortgage Prepayment Models

Burnout is a consequence of unobservable predictive variables. This paper describes a methodology for estimating mortgage prepayment models which corrects for burnout. The paper generalizes the approach of Deng, Quigley, and Van Order (Econometrica, 68, 275–307, 1998) and Stanton (Rev. Finan. Stud.8, 677–708, 1995) in modeling the impact of unobservable variables as a probability distribution. The estimator is applied to a sample of loan histories and the results compared to a conventional logit analysis of the data. Predictions and simulations from both models are compared to illustrate the properties of the new estimator.     

Nature Tourism Seminar

On the 10th and 11th November 1992, a two-day seminar on nature tourism was held at the Whitianga campus of the Bay of Plenty Polytechnic in New Zealand. The seminar attracted over 80 people from the northern half of New Zealand and included tourism operators, local government representatives, academics and interested members of the local community. Dr C. Michael Hall describes the objectives of this regional forum as well as the lessons learnt.     

Ethical Rationality: A Strategic Approach to Organizational Crisis

In this paper, we present an ethical and strategic approach to managing organizational crises. The proposed crisis management model (1) offers a new approach to guide an organization’s strategic and ethical response to crisis, and (2) provides a two-by-two framework for classifying organizational crises. The ethically rational approach to crisis draws upon strategic rationality, crisis, and ethics literature to understand and address organizational crises. Recent examples of corporate crises are employed to illustrate the theoretical claims advanced. Finally, the paper provides guidelines for a morally optimal outcome for the organization and its stakeholders. Peter Snyder is a Ph.D. student in Organizations and Strategic Management at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. His research interests include strategy making and corporate governance. Molly Hall is an attorney who practices international and environmental law in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. She teaches adjunct courses in business ethics, environmental policy, and the European Union. Joline Robertson is a Ph.D. candidate in Organizations and Strategic Management at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Her research interests include international business. Tomasz Jasinski is a Ph.D. student in Organizations and Strategic Management at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. His research interests include strategic alliances. Janice S. Miller received her Ph.D. from Arizona State Univerity in Business Administration with a concentration in Human Resource management. She has been on the faculty at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee UWM since 1996 and has served as the Associate Dean for Academic Programs in the School of Business Administration since 2002. Dr. Miller’s primary research interests include performance management, compensation and ethical issues in organizations.     

Social Exclusion and Transgenic Technology: The Case of Brazilian Agriculture

Many argue that transgenic technology will have wide-ranging implications for farmers in developing nations. A key concern is that competencies may be destroyed by predominantly foreign multinational transgenic technologies, exacerbating problems of social exclusion in the case of subsistence farmers. Conversely, those that fail to adopt the technology may become uncompetitive, particularly in commodity-based export markets. Drawing on interview data conducted in Brazil and supporting data collected in North America, Europe and China, we found that the impact of transgenic technology varies. It has less impact on farmers that adapt the products to their crop systems and environment, and greater negative implications for less formally educated subsistence farmers in consequence of both complexity and compatibility. Earlier attempts at industrializing agriculture through technological innovation led to vastly improved agricultural output and exports, but the benefits of productivity was not equitably distributed [D. Lee: 2005, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(5), 1325–1334], nor was it designed to meet specific local environmental and socioeconomic farmer conditions, exacerbating social exclusion. Multinationals attempting to introduce transgenic technology without considering the broader social and ethical implications will invite resistance. We discuss the implications for policy makers, multinationals and small-scale farmers.     

Can investors time their exposure to private equity?

Private equity performance, both for buyouts and venture capital, has been highly cyclical: periods of high fundraising have been followed by periods of low performance. Despite this seemingly predictable variation, we find modest gains, at best, to pursuing realistic, investable strategies that time capital commitments to private equity. This occurs, in part, because investors can only time their commitments to funds; they cannot time when commitments are called or when investments are exited. There is a high degree of time-series correlation in net cash flows even across commitment strategies that allocate capital in a very different manner over time.     

New development: Spin-outs and social enterprise: the ‘right to request’ programme for health and social care services

The ‘right to request’ policy encouraged and supported National Health Service (NHS) community health staff in England to ‘spin out’ services into independent social enterprises. This article considers the processes and outputs of the initiative and reflects on the likelihood of positive outcomes for patients being achieved. It highlights lessons for future programmes seeking to transfer services out of public ownership.     

Does Integrated Reporting Matter to the Capital Market?

Integrated reporting (<IR>) is an emerging international corporate reporting initiative to address limitations to extant corporate reporting approaches, which are commonly criticized for being both voluminous and disjointed. While <IR> is gaining in popularity, current momentum has been limited due to a lack of clear evidence of its benefits. Utilizing the most suitable setting currently available, being discretionary disclosures made by listed companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, this study provides evidence that analyst forecast error reduces as a company's level of alignment with the <IR> framework increases. Further, the improved alignment is associated with a subsequent reduction in the cost of equity capital for certain reporting companies. The results are obtained after controlling for factors relating to financial transparency and the issuance of standalone non‐financial reports, which suggests that <IR> is providing incrementally useful information to the capital market over and above existing reporting mechanisms.