Initial Steps in High-Frequency Modeling of China

This paper presents the first step in building a forecasting model of Chinas GDP. Being constrained by a statistical history that effectively begins in 1993, it uses high frequency data and principal components analysis to construct a single-equation model that generates elasticities and is applied to two-quarter-ahead forecasts. Initial results suggest a gradual deceleration of growth, consistent with Chinese government policy.A version of this paper was presented as part of Lawrence R. Kleins Adam Smith Award Address at the NABE Annual Meeting, October 4, 2004. The Adam Smith Award Address was sponsored by Global Insight.JEL Classification C5,O53     

Aligning employees with the organization's strategic objectives: out of ‘line of sight’, out of mind

This research focuses on the strategic alignment of a firm's human resources. Specifically, I investigate employee ‘line of sight’ to an organization's strategic objectives. Line of sight is conceptualized as an employee's understanding of an organization's objectives and how to contribute to those objectives. Line of sight was expected to vary across individual characteristics (e.g. hierarchical level, tenure) and relate to important work outcomes (e.g. work attitudes, turnover). Results of a field study confirmed many of the hypotheses, supporting the importance of this construct to research and practice.     

The new ecological paradigm and responses to climate change in China

The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Chinese-Mandarin version of the revised new ecological paradigm (NEP-R) scale. In a sample of 515 Mandarin-speaking Chinese nationals, we first assessed the factor structure and internal consistency of the NEP-R and assessed its validity by examining associations with global warming risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Respondents completed the NEP-R scale, together with measures of risk perception and mitigation behavior. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a two-factor solution, reflecting ecocentric and anthropocentric worldviews, best fit the data. Multi-group path analysis revealed that respondents with stronger ecocentric and weaker anthropocentric worldviews perceived more risks associated with global warming. In turn, respondents who perceived more risks reported engaging in more global warming mitigation behaviors. But importantly, the path between risk perceptions and behavior was significantly stronger for highly educated respondents than for less educated respondents, suggesting that education may represent an important strategy for bridging the gap between perceived risks about global warming and action.     

Evaluating flood risk management options in Scotland: A participant-led multi-criteria approach

The characteristics of flood risk management include complexity, large spatial scales, inter-temporal issues, plural values and conflicts of interests. It is argued that issues with such characteristics require public participation in the decision making process. This study builds on existing deliberative processes to develop a new participant-led multi-criteria method to evaluate flood risk management options in Scotland. The results show that participants preferred regeneration or planting of native woodland to other flood management options, and least preferred building flood walls and embankments. The design of the workshops allowed a rich dataset to reveal the thinking behind such results and provided a deeper understanding of why participants came to these conclusions.