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211.
Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence? 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
Joseph E. Aldy 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2006,33(4):533-555
212.
Hans-Martin Krolzig Massimiliano Marcellino Grayham E. Mizon 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(2):233-254
There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this
paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid
1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the
phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component.
The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and
output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction
model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the
sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis
highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate
the advantages of generating regime dependent responses.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001 相似文献
213.
实际汇率、工资和就业--对中国贸易部门和非贸易部门的实证研究 总被引:16,自引:1,他引:16
在同时考虑贸易部门和非贸易部门的情况下,实际汇率贬值会增加贸易部门就业,但会减少非贸易部门就业,对实际工资的影响则是不确定的.按照理论分析的结果,文章对人民币实际汇率和中国两部门实际工资及就业的关系进行协整检验,结果发现:人民币实际汇率贬值显著增加贸易部门就业,但非贸易部门就业对实际汇率变动不敏感,而两部门的实际工资和实际汇率之间则都没有协整关系存在.进一步检验发现实际汇率变动对就业在贸易和非贸易部门之间的结构也没有影响.总的结论认为,即使考虑到非贸易部门,人民币实际汇率升值对整个就业也是不利的,而贬值有利于整个就业. 相似文献
214.
"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence." 相似文献
215.
This article examines the external shocks and subsequent adjustment processes in the Soviet Union, China, and Hungary during 1974–76, 1979–81, and 1984–87. It compares the experiences of the three socialist countries with regard to external shocks to those of inward-and outward-oriented groups of newly industrializing countries (NICs). In contrast to the NICs, terms of trade effects were of secondary magnitude to export demand effects of external shocks in the three socialist countries during the first two periods. The oil-exporting Soviet Union had beneficial terms of trade effects during the first two periods, with unfavorable effects coming only in the third period. The adjustment responses to the external shocks varied greatly in the Soviet Union from the other two reform-oriented socialist countries and from both groups of NICs. It is interesting to note that the types of responses in the Soviet Union were quite opposite to that one observes for market economies. However, reform-oriented China and Hungary seemed to have response patterns similar to those of market economies, though China's response was similar to the outward-oriented NICs, while Hungary's was similar to the inward-oriented NICs.The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees, as well as Robert Dernberger, Albert Fishlow, Gregory Grossman, Chung Lee, Michael Plummer, Laura Tyson, and Benjamin Ward, for useful comments on this paper. Research in preparing this study was partly supported by a grant from the Institute of International Studies and Center for Slavic and East European Studies of the University of California, Berkeley. 相似文献
216.
Factor models are often used to reduce the complexity of data. It is simple to find common factors and to interpret them. However, it is doubtful whether factor models are always appropriate. Especially when the common factor is considered to be an attitude, it must be stable through time and explain a considerable part of the variances. A procedure is suggested to test the usefulness of a common factor. In an experimental pilot study in which an attitude towards immigrant workers was investigated, the instability and superfluousness of a common factor is shown. An alternative model is presented which suggests that changing opinions can be explained by specific variables. Finally it is shown that a more stable common factor is found if a so-called MIMIC-design is used. 相似文献
217.
218.
219.
The multiple objectives of perishable product inventory management are examined in this paper. These objectives include: (1) satisfying demand by carrying sufficient inventories, (2) holding down inventory carrying costs, (3) keeping the amount of product spoilage (outdating) at an acceptable level, and (4) maintaining quality by using the product while it is still fresh, and (5) keeping the cost of rotation low. Some of the above objectives are in conflict. Thus, certain redistribution policies may help attain one or more of these objectives to a greater extent. Redistribution involves the transfer of the product from outlets where demand is low to outlets where demand is high. A goal programming model for solving redistribution problems is presented. An example is provided and sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine when redistribution is advantageous. Applicability of the model is discussed. 相似文献
220.
Entropy concepts have developed in four general contexts—thermodynamics, communication theory, statistical information theory and social and life sciences. These concepts have five distinct mathematical forms. Ambiguity and complexity in utilization of the concept has been heightened by this multi-faceted heritage. Effective utilization may be strengthened by a sharper articulation of entropy through combinations of literal, mathematical and graphical modes of expression. Geography and planning as user disciplines have important responsibilities in enhancing cross-disciplinary communication of this important adisciplinary concept. Implications of these arguments for the social sciences include the need for caution in drawing social analogies from the ambiguous entropy concepts of statistical mechanics; and an indication of the potential benefits of social science models based on the unambiguous entropic constructs of statistical information theory. 相似文献