Alliance portfolio reconfiguration following a technological discontinuity

Research summary : We study how technological discontinuities generate first‐ and second‐order effects on alliance formation and termination, leading to reconfiguration of firms' alliance portfolios. Following technological shocks, we argue that firms often seek alliances that provide new resources while also having incentives to form alliances for reinforced and challenged resources that complement the new resources. In parallel, alliance terminations, even involving resources otherwise unaffected by the discontinuity, increase due to limits in firms' alliance carrying capacity. We study biopharmaceutical firms between 1990 and 2000, which faced a technological discontinuity in 1995 in the form of combinatorial chemistry and high‐throughput screening. We improve understanding of how technological discontinuities affect the value of resources and how firms reconfigure alliance portfolios in response. Managerial summary : When firms form alliances to gain new resources during technological discontinuities that disrupt their industry, they cannot consider only the focal new partnerships. Instead, new alliances create complementarity and substitution pressures that lead to broader reconfiguration of the firms' alliance portfolios: (1) complementarity creates incentives to also form alliances for resources that the technological discontinuity reinforces or challenges in order to improve the collective value of co‐specialized assets; (2) substitution creates incentives to terminate existing alliances, even if their value is otherwise unaffected by the discontinuity, in order to create carrying capacity for new alliances. Thus, one new alliance can generate a cascade of reconfiguration that challenges the balance between the benefits of stability and the need for change in an alliance portfolio. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Virtuous or vicious cycles? The role of divestitures as a complementary Penrose effect within resource‐based theory

Research summary: Studies of how divestitures affect firm performance offer mixed results. This paper unpacks relationships between divestitures and subsequent performance, focusing first on the moderating role of prior performance and then on mechanisms through which divestitures by higher‐ and lower‐performing firms affect performance. The study suggests that divestitures can exacerbate weakness and reinforce strength: divestitures by lower performers improve profits but inhibit sales growth and tend to speed the firms’ exits as independent actors; by contrast, higher‐performing divesters invest in support of existing assets and gain new growth, while avoiding becoming acquisition targets. Most generally, divestitures help reduce constraints to changing a firm's resource base, which we refer to as a complementary Penrose effect. Managerial summary: Divestitures help both struggling firms and high performers free financial and managerial resources that they can reinvest in more productive uses. In doing so, divestitures reinforce the strength of high performers but may exacerbate weaknesses of struggling firms. Divestitures by lower performers improve their profits but inhibit their sales growth and increase the chances that the firms will be acquired. By contrast, higher‐performing divesters gain new growth by investing in support of existing and recently acquired assets and, by doing so, are less likely to become targets of acquirers who seek their productive assets. Thus, divestiture is part of a downward cycle for struggling firms but supports a virtuous cycle for superior firms.     

Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1

In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have raised the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real‐world data. Results using household data for 10 observations on nine low‐income countries show that the short‐run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low‐income countries substantially.     

Deregulation reforms,resource reallocation and aggregate productivity growth in the Australian dairy industry

Deregulation reforms in the Australian dairy industry had long‐lasting repercussions for Australian agriculture and the wider Australian economy. Using farm‐level data from 1979 to 2013, we investigate the effect of these reforms on productivity in the Australian dairy industry which arose from correcting resource misallocation between farms and across segregated state milk markets. Our results demonstrate that after the dairy reforms in 2000, relative market share shifted from less productive farms to more productive ones, and between farms using different production systems – generating additional productivity gains for the farm sector, but imposing some costs on downstream manufacturers by strengthening the seasonality of milk supply. Lessons from the Australian experience provide timely guidance for those countries exploring deregulation now or in the future to improve the industry‐level agricultural productivity growth through facilitating resource reallocation from less efficient to more efficient farms.     

Time horizons matter: the hazard rate of coalition governments and the size of government

This study examines how coalition governments affect the size of government, measured by total central government expenditure as a share of GDP. Existing studies suggest that the presence of multiple political parties within ruling coalitions generate common pool resource problems or bargaining inefficiencies which, in turn, leads to more government spending when coalition governments are in office. We demonstrate that coalition governments have shorter time horizons than single party governments and use that finding to motivate a simple formal model. The model shows that coalition governments have greater incentives to increase government spending because of a lower discount factor in office. Results from empirical models estimated on a global sample of 111 democracies between 1975 and 2007 provide strong statistical support for the aforementioned theoretical prediction. The empirical results remain robust when we control for alternative explanations, employ different estimation techniques, and use different measures of government spending.     

Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes

The latest versions of the Global Trade Analysis Project database and the Linkage model of the global economy (projected to 2015) are used to estimate the impact of removing all merchandise trade distortions (including agricultural subsidies). Results suggest that a move to free merchandise trade would increase farm employment, the real value of agricultural output and exports, real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in developing countries. This would occur despite the decline in international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries.     

When is more better? The impact of business scale and scope on long‐term business survival,while controlling for profitability

Empirical research shows that larger businesses tend to survive longer than smaller companies. Little research, though, shows whether size confers survival advantages in addition to the survival benefits of baseline profitability. Moreover, no prior research attempts to disentangle the benefits of organizational capital that accrue from greater scale from those that arise from greater business scope. Thus, we lack a conceptual understanding of the underlying benefits of business size for long‐term survival. We expect business scale and business scope to reflect organizational capital that offers survival benefits, where we conceptualize scale in terms of annual sales revenue and scope in terms of product line breadth and sub‐sector participation within a related business context. We first argue that greater business scale and business scope each enhance long‐term survival, independent of baseline profitability, owing to greater availability of financial resources, organizational routines, and external ties. We then argue that the benefits of scale are greatest for multi‐product businesses, stemming from positive interactive effects of breadth and depth. We find support for these hypotheses with data from 618 firms that operated in the U.S. medical sector between 1978 and 1995. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

50 Jahre Hans-Bredow-Institut

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