个人投资者交易行为研究——来自台湾股市的证据

本文基于台湾股市数据,主要研究个人投资者的交易行为。参照Kaniel et al.(2008)构建了个人投资者交易不平衡性指标─净交易,以反映投资者股票交易的强度。采用这种交易不平衡性指标来构建投资组合研究个人投资者的交易行为。首先研究个人投资者交易和股票的收益之间的动态关系从而分析投资者的交易策略,然后研究个人投资者净交易的收益预测能力从而分析个人投资者交易的信息含量。本文研究发现:台湾股票市场的个人投资者采用负反馈的交易策略,并且个人投资者在交易中表现出很强的处置效应;个人投资者在交易中的信息含量不足;个人投资者交易中的盈利主要来自两个方面:过度反应和价格冲击。文章最后给出政策建议。     

Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach

We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil.     

Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations

This paper studies the implications for business cycle dynamics of heterogeneous expectations in a stochastic growth model. The assumption of homogeneous, rational expectations is replaced with a heterogeneous expectations model where a fraction of agents hold rational expectations and the remaining fraction adopt parsimonious forecasting models that are, in equilibrium, optimal within a restricted class. Our approach nests the literature on rational expectations in business cycle models with a recent approach based on adaptive learning. We demonstrate that (i.) heterogeneous expectations can lead to substantial improvement in the internal propagation of equilibrium business cycle models and (ii.) the internal propagation depends on the degree of heterogeneity. A calibrated model with heterogeneity provides a closer fit to business cycle data than its representative agent, rational expectations counterpart.     

TFP change and its components for Swedish manufacturing firms during the 2008–2009 financial crisis

Journal of Productivity Analysis - A driving force of economic development is growth in total factor productivity (TFP). Manufactured goods are, to a large extent, exports, and represent an...     

Time to default in the UK mortgage market

This paper employs duration analysis to investigate the timing of default in the UK mortgage market. Our analysis is performed on an ex ante basis, in that our explanatory variables are available to mortgage lenders when the loan is first made. We estimate both standard Weibull distributions and generalizations of the Weibull that permit non-monotonic hazard functions. The models fit the data well, suggesting that we have captured the major sources of variation in duration. We find that ‘cash flow’ variables, such as salary and interest rate paid, play the largest role. Surprisingly, loan-to-value ratios are either insignificant or influence default times in a counter-intuitive direction.     

Furthering Organizational Priorities with Less Than Truthful Behavior: A Call for Additional Tools

Though codes of ethics exist in many businesses, employees still view less than truthful behaviors to be a significant ethical problem. The current study examines the related and somewhat counterintuitive issue of less than truthful behaviors intended to further organizational priorities. Such behaviors risk violating one organizational priority (e.g., adhering to a code of ethics) to achieve another. Data indicated four unique though non-mutually exclusive motivations: (1) to avoid confrontation or conflict; (2) to ensure quality in the delivery of a product or service; (3) to buy time for an organization’s strategy to play out; and (4) for self-protection or self-enhancement. The evidence further suggests that enhanced managerial training, particularly in handling confrontation and conflicts, could reduce the contradiction between stated codes of ethics and actual behaviors.     

Global diversification strategy and corporate profit performance

Based on a sample of 62 multinationals, this paper examines the impact of global diversification strategy on corporate profit performance by integrating the product and the international market dimensions of diversification. The results suggest that the corporate profit performance impact of related and unrelated diversification varies contingent upon the extent of a firm's international market diversification. One important lesson of this work is that both business strategy researchers and managers should review corporate diversification as having distinct yet interactive strategic dimensions—product and international market—and they would do well to recognize both the different and the joint effect of these dimensions on corporate profit performance.     

The single family home in the investment portfolio

This article uses recent measures of the risk and return to investment in housing to estimate the effects of including a single family home in the investor portolio. We estimate the expected return and standard deviation of that return, as well as its correlation with other major investment classes.