WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU: KNOWLEDGE PROBLEMS IN MONETARY POLICY

Many economists hold that monetary policy missteps played a role in causing or prolonging the 2007–2008 financial crisis. In light of the perceived failure of monetary orthodoxy, models are being theoretically refined and empirically recalibrated. Absent from these technical debates is a recognition of the immense knowledge burdens inherent in monetary policy. We argue that Fed authorities do not have the knowledge required to achieve their own monetary objectives, given their inability to approximately measure or predict changes in the demand for money. Finally, we evaluate the ability of free banking to overcome this knowledge problem. (JEL E42, E52, E58, E61, P16)     

Do city–county mergers in China promote local economic development?

Municipal mergers have become a worldwide phenomenon in the past few decades, primarily advanced to exploit economies of scale. While most evaluations of municipal mergers have focused on the efficiency of local public goods provision, it is rare in the literature to explore how such mergers promote economic growth in a developing country context. This research investigates the economic consequences of a policy experiment of city–county mergers (che xian she qu) in China during the period 2000–2004. Using comprehensive datasets at city, county and firm levels, we present evidence that the merger significantly increases local economic development, and the magnitude of the effect depends on local endowments related to agglomeration forces. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications. We further verify that improved transport infrastructure and urban agglomeration economies after merger are potential contributors to the positive merger effects.     

Fixed versus flexible election terms: explaining innovation in the timing of Canada’s election cycle

This paper argues that there is an efficiency gain underlying the recent adoption of legislation calling for a fixed 4-year governing term by the federal and most provincial governments in Canada. The efficiency gain arises from foreclosing an externality produced by the Canadian constitutional provision that sets a maximum length for a legislative term (5 years) while allowing the governing party (through the Governor General) to dissolve the House early. Because the opportunistic use of surprise can improve the governing party’s probability of winning, strategic choice can lead to elections being held at times that most disadvantage the incumbent’s rivals. Evidence from Canada is introduced suggesting that federal elections became less predictable through successive reductions in the campaign time given to competitors, thus raising the cost of this externality. The same reasoning suggests that the party most likely to propose this legislative innovation will be the party in opposition rather than in power and/or the new leader of an established party facing loss in the upcoming election. By fulfilling the fixed term even when it could benefit by calling the election early, the party establishes a precedent that raises the political cost to others of cancelling the fixed term legislation.     

Controlling Episodic Air Pollution with a Seasonal Gas Tax: The Case of Cache Valley,Utah

Using daily data spanning 10 years, we establish a statistical relationship between episodic particulate-matter \((\hbox {PM}_{2.5})\) concentrations and vehicle trips in Cache Valley, Utah, and estimate an average gas-price elasticity for the region. We also estimate the benefits and costs associated with a seasonal gas tax set to reduce vehicle trips during the winter-inversion season and thereby lower health costs through concomitant decreases in the \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) concentrations. We find a strong positive relationship between vehicle trips reduced and associated reductions in \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) concentrations. Further, we estimate a mean gas price elasticity of approximately \(-\)0.3 in what we call a “high price variability environment.” Incorporating these results, cost-benefit analysis suggests that the social net benefit for Cache Valley associated with the imposition of a seasonal gas tax during the winter-inversion season is highly dependent upon the type of benefit estimation method used.     

Synchronization and diversity in business cycles: a network analysis of the European Union

In this article, we use a correlation matrix and its internal networks to analyse business cycle synchronization across Europe since 2000. This methodology allows us to summarize individual country interactions and co-movements while also capturing the existing heterogeneity of connectivity within the European economic system. Our results indicate that synchronization of the euro zone countries remained stable from 1999 until the current financial crisis, after which co-movements increased sharply and synchronization rose to the highest in the time sample. By endogenously identifying clusters of countries with close connections in their business cycle, we also refute the commonly accepted notion of identifiable core and peripheral euro zone countries.     

Courts and Firm Investments in Real Property

The legal environment and rule of law are important for business, but existing studies often treat rule of law holistically. This article examines the role of courts, specifically the speed of court decisions, the enforcement of edicts, and the impartiality of decision-making as perceived by firms of various sizes, and the impact this has on firm investments in real property. The article analyzes a panel of 6,300 firms from 27 countries in the period from 2002 to 2009 to find that (i) firm size affects perceptions positively, while (ii) paying bribes affects perceptions negatively. At the same time, (iii) a firm’s connections to the government have no apparent impact. More importantly, while all three components have a positive correlation with the amount firms invest in land and machinery, the speed of courts has the greatest significance and the highest marginal effect. Firms perceiving courts to be quick invest nearly four times as much as the average real property investment. This finding suggests that policymakers should focus on reducing backlogs in the court system, perhaps by encouraging more arbitration or staffing more clerks.     

Perspectives on evaluation in financial education: Landscape,issues, and studies

This review discusses the heterogeneity in the effectiveness of financial education programs that occurs because of the unique conditions for programs and methods to evaluate them. The authors define six groups served by financial education: children, youth, college students and young adults, working adults, military personnel, and low-income consumers. They then discuss research and evaluation literature for each group with a critical eye on program purpose, content, and evaluation. They also present findings affecting multiple groups on four issues: student loans, homeownership, retirement planning, and financial advising. The accumulated evidence on the effectiveness of financial education is positive, although the results are nuanced and sometimes limited. The authors argue that understanding this broad landscape in studying financial education is critical for future research and evaluation.     

Polanyi’s ‘substantive approach’ to the economy in action? Conceptualising social enterprise as a public health ‘intervention’

For several decades now, critical public health researchers have highlighted the deleterious effects that pursuing neoliberal policies can have on the ‘causes of the causes’ of poor health and upon growing health inequalities. This paper argues that the conceptual tools of Karl Polanyi can help lend particular insight into this issue. The specific example that this paper focuses upon is the ‘social enterprise’: a form of organisation that combines both social and business objectives. The paper explores, conceptually, whether social enterprises may have the potential to act as one component of a neo-Polanyian countermovement: helping to re-embed the economy back into society, and offering greater recognition for a more comprehensive and socially imbued concept of health. Importantly, this potential is critically examined in the context of neoliberal hegemony, where challenges to the status quo have regularly been met with assimilation, co-option and/or repression.