Plans,disequilibria and macroeconomic policy simulations

In the paper some specific problems of applying a disequilibrium model of a centrally planned economy for policy simulation experiments are analysed. It is shown that a model in which demand, supply and plan output variables are simultaneously introduced can be used for policy simulation in a more effective way than a model which describes either demand or supply side of an economy. In the empirical part of the paper a disequilibrium-type model of the Polish economy is used for simulating alternative internal and external economic policies for 1971–80. It has been found that internal deflationary policies would have been relatively efficient in minimizing consumption excess demand at a given level of consumption output in the period investigated.     

Rich language and refinements of cheap-talk equilibria

I formalize the notion of equilibrium language, define the relation of having a richer language, and show the existence of equilibria with maximally rich language. I also study the stability of equilibria with respect to inflows of messages that can enrich their language, and provide examples of implausible cheap-talk equilibria, not refined away by the existing refinements, which can be refined away on the grounds of stability properties.     

Severe acute respiratory syndrome,tourism and the media

There has been an assumption, based on trends from the last two decades of the twentieth century, that global tourism will continue to grow. A number of events in the early twenty first century, however, have called this into question. Some of these have been natural occurrences, others anthropogenic, such as the terrorist attacks in New York in 2001, which indirectly affected global tourism, and that in Bali in 2002, where tourists were the major target. The outbreak of the disease severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in early 2003 had direct and significant impacts on global tourism. This article provides an overview of the SARS outbreak and its impact on global tourism, and focuses on the role of the media in relation to the disease outbreak. Eighteen months on from the height of the outbreak, SARS appeared to have been checked, but there have a number of subsequent cases and of particular concern, it has been predicted that the disease will return on a large scale, and therefore a future research agenda is also presented. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of environmental initiatives in tourism: responses from the London hotel sector

In tourism, natural resources and the physical environment are regarded as important assets to enhance the product. Practitioners in this multisectoral industry (including hotels) perceive the environment and its resources to be a crucial feature in attracting more tourists. Today, most sectors of industry face pressure to improve their environmental performance. Hotels as a component of tourism are no exception. Hotels can act to reduce their environmental impacts and, collectively, make a substantial contribution to improving the quality of the environment. A wide range of publications offer guidance and advice on the actions hoteliers may take to alter their practices and thus address environmental issues. Yet, to date, it is not clear how many hotels are applying these recommendations, nor which actions share this common goal. Equally, the lack of operationalisation in environmental principles, implicit within many codes of practice, is seeing the emergence of a gap between theory and practice in these matters. It is the nature of this gap that is explored. Additionally, an assessment is undertaken of what the tourism industry is doing to improve environmental performance, and a case study is presented based on a detailed survey of environmental management practices in 42 London hotels. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agricultural productivity,the real effective exchange rate,and structural change: Some evidence from Africa

Agriculture is thought to play a number of roles in the early development process. All of these roles involve fostering non‐agricultural development, in particular manufacturing. It is argued in this paper that agriculture plays a role that has hitherto been ignored. Specifically, if agricultural labor productivity increases faster than manufacturing labor productivity, the real effective exchange rate will depreciate. This depreciation of real effective exchange rate occurs because in very poor countries agriculture makes up the dominant share of both GDP and employment. The depreciation also makes it easier for a country to expand the production of tradables relative to nontradables, with manufacturing being the main tradable. This proposition, which as agricultural labor productivity increases relative to manufacturing labor productivity the real effective exchange rate depreciates, is tested using data drawn from 10 sub‐Saharan African countries.     

Are unit export values correct measures of the exports’ quality?

It has become common to measure the quality of exports using their unit export value (UEV). Applications of this method include studies of intra-industry trade (IIT) and analyses of industrial ‘competitiveness.’ This literature seems to assume that export quality and export price (the most natural interpretation of UEV) are not merely correlated but that they follow each other one-for-one. We put this assumption under scrutiny from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In terms of theory, we formalize this assumption as a hypothesis of the proportionality of equilibrium prices and equilibrium qualities. We discuss several cases for which this hypothesis is theoretically doubtful (nonlinear utility and cost functions; strong and asymmetric horizontal product differentiation). We also suggest a method of verifying the hypothesis for cases in which it cannot be easily rejected theoretically. This method is then applied to German imports in the period of 1994–2009. We find that the implications of the proportionality hypothesis are largely contradicted by the data.     

A comparison of Latin American and African economic development with an East Asian twist

There are many parallels between the development of Latin America and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Recent literature on this is reviewed. It is argued in the paper that the key to long‐term development is the shift from inward (import substitution) to outward (export‐oriented) growth. This shift involves both tariff reduction and significant investment in infrastructure and human capital accumulation. Given that much of Latin America (historically) and Sub‐Saharan Africa (currently) has depended or depends on trade taxes for revenue, an outward orientation poses a significant fiscal problem, which makes it extremely difficult to switch to an export‐oriented growth path. East Asian experience points to the importance of broad‐based agricultural growth in making the fiscal transition.     

An Economic Analysis of Global Policy Proposals to Prohibit Compensation of Blood Plasma Donors

Human blood plasma and its derivative therapies have been used therapeutically for more than 50 years, after first being widely used to treat injuries during World War II. In certain countries, manufacturers of these therapies – known as plasma-derived medicinal products (PDMPs) – compensate plasma donors, raising healthcare and ethical concerns among some parties. In particular, the World Health Organization has taken a strong advocacy position that compensation for blood donations should be eliminated worldwide. This review evaluates the key economic factors underlying the supply and demand for PDMPs and the evidence pointing to the policy options that are most likely to maintain a reliable supply of life-sustaining therapies. It concludes that compensated plasma donation is important for maintaining adequate and consistent supplies of plasma and limits the risk of under-treatment for the foreseeable future.     

Forecasting annual and harvest pecan prices

Pecan price forecasting is important to growers attempting to reduce income variability. Random coefficient regression (RCR) and OLS approaches were applied to annual price forecasts. Variance analysis was conducted to forecast pecan price during harvest. Price variation was postulated to be caused by two sets of variables: structural economic variables and unknown factors. RCR results consistently outperformed OLS results in annual price forecasting. The variation of harvest prices was found to be generated by a different process each year, making accurate predictions difficult. Annual price forecasts, however, can provide additional information to pecan growers and shellers for marketing decision-making.