Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s exit from gold, January 1928–December 1936

The paper examines the timing of exit from the interwar gold-exchange standard for a panel of European countries, based on monthly data over the period January 1928–December 1936. I show that exit from gold can be understood in terms of a trade-off between a limited set of factors commonly suggested in the theoretical literature on currency crises. A simple and parsimonious econometric framework that nests various hypotheses allows me to predict the month of exit in the 1930s, except for France. I consider the separate cases of France and Poland to show my results shed light on country-specific debates.     

Can Futures and Options Markets Hold the Milk Price Safety Net? Policy Conflicts and Market Failures in Dairy Hedging

U.S. Department of Agriculture's Dairy Options Pilot Program promoted hedging by producers, and was a test case for similar programs in other agricultural industries. Rapidly shifting milk pricing policies impeded quantitative hedging evaluations while the program was active. Hedging appears capable of reducing price variance by 50–60% in most regions, and favors large, sophisticated producers in heavy cheese manufacturing regions. Forward contracting or price insurance products may offer lower transaction costs and attract more small-scale producers. Ballooning milk deficiency payments and milk's prominent role in trade-distorting payments suggest an ongoing need to promote private price risk management tools.     

COMMENTS ON ‘THE GLOBAL IMBALANCES: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?’, THE 2007 WINCOTT LECTURE,GIVEN BY MAX CORDEN

The view that the United States will be able to run significant deficits for a long time is convincing. However, the proposition that it makes sense for foreigners to invest in the USA because of the high returns is questionable. The value of their US assets is at risk from dollar depreciation, inflation and government sequestration. Accordingly, there is a danger that foreign investors will cut and run, causing a brutal and swift adjustment.     

Does Aid Improve Public Service Delivery?

The expected increase in aid to Africa will put a big challenge for public service delivery. This paper provides an analysis of the effects of the volume and volatility of aid on education, health, water and sanitation outcomes, taking also into account the institutions related to public service delivery, including freedom of press, corruption, and decentralization, using a simultaneous equation model. Overall the share of Official Development Assistance (ODA) that is provided for education and health seems to have a positive impact on outcomes in these sectors, whereas total aid seems to be negatively associated. Aid volatility is associated with better outcomes in sanitation, water, and infant mortality, contrary to expectations. JEL no. H4, H5, H7, I1, I2, L9, O2     

Rezensionen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The impact of elimination of West German quantitative restrictions on imports from centrally planned economies

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkung einer Aufhebung der westdeutschen mengenm?\igen Einfuhrbeschr?nkungen auf Importe aus Zentralverwaltungswirtschaften. —Mit Hilfe verschiedener Ma\e für komparative Marktanteile und eines Index für westdeutsche Strategie zur Beseitigung der mengenm?\igen Beschr?nkungen von Importen aus sechs RGW-L?ndern wird in diesem Aufsatz untersucht, ob die RGW-L?nder wirklich imstande waren, die neuen Exportm?glichkeiten für nichtlandwirtschaftliche Güter auszunutzen, die durch den Abbau der quantitativen Importbeschr?nkungen zwischen 1966 und 1972 geschaffen wurden. Angesichts der Versuche der RGW-Mitgliedstaaten, die Exporte in den Westen auszuweiten, um ihren Bedarf an konvertiblen W?hrungen zu decken, sind die Ergebnisse besonders wichtig, die zeigen, da\ mehrere RGW-Staaten und Produktgruppen (einschlie\lich Maschinen und Ausrüstungen) systematisch von der Liberalisierung profitierten, obwohl für viele der wichtigsten Exportprodukte weiterhin Importquoten bestanden.

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Résumé Les conséquences de l’élimination des restrictions quantitatives d’Allemagne de l’Ouest sur les importations en provenance des économies centralement planifiées. —En utilisant quelques mesures comparatives de quote-part du marché aussi bien qu’ un index de la sélectivité de la stratégie d’Allemagne de l’Ouest d’abolir les restrictions quantitatives (RQs) sur les importations affectuant six pays de CAEM, cet article examine si ces pays pouvaient actuellement utiliser les avantages des opportunités d’exporter les produits pas agricoles qui étaient créées par la libéralisation de RQs entre 1966 et 1972. Considérant les essais des membres de CAEM d’étendre les exportations vers l’Ouest pour couvrir les dépenses en monnaie convertible, il y a des résultats importants qui montrent que malgré qu’on impose encore des quotas sur beaucoup de produits d’exportations très importants, quelques groupes des produits, inclusivement la machinerie et l’équipement, systématiquement profitaient de la libéralisation.

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Resumen El impacto de la eliminación de restricciones cuantitativas por parte de Alemania Occidental sobre las importaciones de países con economías centralmente planificadas. —Usando diversas medidas comparativas de participación de mercado (market share) y un índice de selectividad de la estrategia de Alemania Occidental para eliminar restricciones cuantitativas que afectan las importaciones de los países del CAEM, el presente articulo examina si estos países efectivamente fueron capaces de aprovechar las nuevas oportunidades para la exportación de productos no-agrícolas creadas por la liberalización de las restricciones cuantitativas entre 1966 y 1972. Considerando los esfuerzos de los países miembros del CAEM de expandir las exportaciones hacia Occidente para poder cubrir los gastos en moneda convertible, son de particular importancia los resultados que muestran, que a pesar de que muchos de los productos de exportación más importantes seguían sujetos a cuotas, varios paises del CAEM y grupos de productos, incluyendo maquinaria y equipo, se beneficiaron sistemáticamente de la liberalización.

     

IX. Geld und kapital

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Disaccord on seabed mining

Continuing the discussions under way since 1973, the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) held the first half of its ninth session from March 3 to April 4 in New York. What has been achieved at this meeting?