The speed of human capital formation in the baseball industry: the information value of minor‐league performance in predicting major‐league performance

Using a data set of well over 1200 different pitchers covering an almost 20‐year time period, this paper reveals that the process of human capital formation for professional baseball pitchers is relatively slow, rendering minor league statistics to be of limited value when projecting major league performance. This indicates that a considerable amount of the performance differences across pitchers at the major league level are revealed only after they reach the majors, and hence is unforeseen given their minor league statistics. These findings illustrate just how difficult it is for all organizations to predict the future success of their apprentice‐level employees. Even in an industry such as baseball—where employee output is easily measurable and highly quantifiable, and where the nature of the work at the developmental level is identical to that at the advanced level (i.e. pitching a baseball)—apprentice‐level performance only provides modest insights into how that employee will ultimately perform at the advanced level. Thus, firms that erroneously overestimate the importance of apprentice‐level performance are at risk of making systematic errors in personnel decisions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Export and Strategic Currency Hedging

This paper examines an international Cournot duopoly wherein a home firm and a foreign firm compete in the home market under exchange rate uncertainty. The foreign exporting firm, being risk averse, has incentives to hedge its exchange rate risk exposure. In a two-stage setting, we show that hedging via an unbiased currency futures market acts as a strategic device. In particular, under either constant or decreasing absolute risk aversion, an increase in the hedging volume of the foreign firm promotes its exports and deters the home firm’s output. In contrast to the well-known full-hedging result in a perfectly competitive environment, we find that the foreign firm over-hedges for strategic reasons. Furthermore, the separation result from the hedging literature under perfect competition no longer holds in our duopoly framework, i.e., equilibrium output levels depend on the risk attitude of the foreign firm as well as the probability distribution of the spot exchange rate.     

Urbanization as A Process of State Building: Local Governance Reforms in China

Existing scholarship suggests that local transformation in reform‐era China has been a process of decentralization of state power driving extractive local governments to pursue economic growth through rapacious land appropriation and producing many miserable landless villagers. This study puts forward an alternative perspective by arguing that local governance reforms in China to advance urban development should also be interpreted as a process of state building, whereby local government reshaped its governance strategy so as to mitigate potential social unrest and strengthen its political legitimacy in governing rapidly urbanizing areas. Based on intensive fieldwork in a periurban district in southern China, this research examines how the local state has heightened its control over urbanizing villages through its day‐to‐day governance practices and the pursuit of a complex policy agenda comprising social welfare provision, shareholding reforms and intervention in grassroots politics. The findings of this study shed new light on understanding local state transformation in periurban China and on explaining why the country still maintains tremendous urban growth despite incessant land disputes and numerous social tensions at different localities.     

IPO市场的解药

次贷危机爆发后，很多原本计划在纽交所、伦交所或是NASDAQ上市的企业都纷纷停止了脚步。     

China＇s Economy in 2007/2008： Coping with Problems of Runaway Growth

Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.     

Developing physics concepts through hands-on problem solving: a perspective on a technological project design

In a contest featuring hands-on projects, college students were required to design a simple crawling worm using planning, self-monitoring and self-evaluation processes to solve contradictive problems. To enhance the efficiency of problem solving, one needs to practice meta-cognition based on an application of related scientific concepts. The objective of this study, then, was to analyze the physics concepts employed by the students as they completed a hands-on project named “Crawling Worm,” during which they had to overcome problems encountered by the requirements of their design as well as those brought on by competition. Based on the analysis of the participants’ working portfolios and on reviews and interviews by engineering professors, the results of this study show that the crawling worm design competition encouraged the practice of problem solving, and it facilitated the learning of physics concepts such as friction, torque, four bar link, material properties, and so on.     

China's Outward Direct Investment in Africa

The empirical determinants of China's outward direct investment (ODI) in Africa are examined using an officially approved ODI dataset and a relatively new OECD–IMF format ODI dataset. China's ODI is found responding to the canonical economic determinants that include the market seeking motive, the risk factor, and the resources seeking motive. It is also affected by the intensity of trade ties and the presence of China's contracted projects. A host country's natural resources have an impact on China's decision on how much to invest in the country rather than on whether to invest in the country or not. China's drive for Africa's natural resources is mainly a recent phenomenon and, probably, became prominent after the “Going Global” policy adopted in 2002.     

Earnings Management Using the Valuation Allowance for Deferred Tax Assets under SFAS No. 109*

Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 109 (SFAS No. 109) allows firms to use their discretion to set arbitrarily high valuation allowances against deferred tax assets. Firms can then later use these "hidden reserves" to manage earnings. Our evidence indicates that most banks do not record a valuation allowance to manage earnings, but rather to follow the guidelines of SFAS No. 109. However, if the bank is sufficiently well capitalized to absorb the current‐period impact on capital, then the amount of the valuation allowance increases with a bank's capital. In later years, bank managers adjust the valuation allowance to smooth earnings. The magnitude of the discretionary adjustment increases with the deviation of unadjusted earnings from the forecast or historical earnings.     

Are Accruals during Initial Public Offerings Opportunistic?

We find evidence that initial public offering (IPO) firms, on average, have high positive issue-year earnings and abnormal accruals, followed by poor long-run earnings and negative abnormal accruals. The IPO-year abnormal, and not expected, accruals explain the cross-sectional variation in post-issue earnings and stock returns. The results are robust with respect to alternative abnormal accruals and earnings performance measures. IPO firms adopt more income-increasing depreciation policies when they deviate from similar prior performance same industry non-issuers, and they provide significantly less for uncollectible accounts receivable than their matched non-issuers. The results taken together suggest opportunistic earnings management partially explains the new issues anomaly.