Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers' response to change under uncertainty

Hierarchical Decision Models of woolproducers' decisions provide unique insights into the impact of major price changes. Producers' lagged response in some contexts appear to be due to the ambiguous decision environment they face, their strategic goals and responses to that environment apart from lags caused by factors such as attitude to risk, expectations adjustment, adjustment costs and learning costs. Much of the response to major price changes comes from strategic decisions to change enterprises rather than marginal changes to existing enterprises. In ambiguous environments, methods may need to be found that incorporate simplifying behavioural rules and strategies.     

Women abroad: getting the best results from women managers

Abstract This study explores the work environment of expatriate women managers in American corporations and investigates the determinants of their job satisfaction. The strategic importance of global assignments has increased over the years. The real cost of unsuccessful expatriates extends beyond the monetary expenses. As the number of women managers working overseas increases, so does the importance of this topic. Additionally, because women in expatriate positions are relatively new, their needs for job satisfaction and career aspirations are not known to most organizations. This research intends to fill this gap. The study concentrates on four major areas that are considered important for obtaining job satisfaction: (1) the way in which organizations design their overseas jobs, (2) women's skills and characteristics, (3) international human resource policies of companies and (4) the cultural environment of host countries. The applied research covers two phases: a study of expatriate managers during their assignments overseas and the evaluation of overseas experience upon their return. The results indicate that women in overseas assignments are satisfied overall with their jobs. However, organizational variables are more strongly related to job satisfaction. The nature of job design in overseas postings has the greatest impact on women's job satisfaction. When the jobs are enriched, women gain intrinsic rewards and have high job satisfaction. Organizational support also contributes to the satisfaction of women expatriates. Training, mentoring and repatriation preparations have high impact on women's success and satisfaction. Women expatriates are more concerned with their repatriation and future advancement than their present assignments. The findings are important for theoretical and practical reasons. Theoretically, the achievement and satisfaction of women managers overseas cannot be simplified without taking into account organizational, personal and cultural factors. Practically, companies need to respond to the individual needs of expatriate women managers and then decide on their assignments and their repatriation accordingly.     

REVERSE REGRESSIONS AND LONG‐HORIZON FORECASTING

Long‐horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using available sample sizes. Hodrick in 1992 proposed a remedy that is based on running a reverse regression of short‐horizon returns on the long‐run mean of the predictor. Unfortunately, this only allows the null of no predictability to be tested, and assumes stationary regressors. In this paper, we revisit long‐horizon forecasting from reverse regressions, and argue that reverse regression methods avoid serious size distortions in long‐horizon predictive regressions, even when there is some predictability and/or near unit roots. Meanwhile, the reverse regression methodology has the practical advantage of being easily applicable when there are many predictors. We apply these methods to forecasting excess bond returns using the term structure of forward rates, and find that there is indeed some return forecastability. However, confidence intervals for the coefficients of the predictive regressions are about twice as wide as those obtained with the conventional approach to inference. We also include an application to forecasting excess stock returns. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International Telecommunications,Settlement Rates,and the FCC

This paper models settlement arrangements between international telecommunication carriers. The FCC in the United States claims these arrangements cost United States consumers billions of dollars annually, largely to subsidize foreign carriers in low-income countries. A model is given which makes sense of this claim, as well as the role of costs, competition, and income disparities in settlement rate determination. Findings are tested using data spanning 17 years and 167 countries. Some implications are drawn for the FCC's recently proposed settlement rate caps, as well as for proposals for multilateral solutions.     

The Role of Advertising in the Marketing Strategy of Accountancy Firms: Evidence from a Regional Market

Rules governing the advertising activity of accountancy firms have recently been relaxed. Published evidence is, however, scant regarding the perceived value of accountancy firms' advertising by both users of their services and by business advisers. Building on a conceptual model of the role of advertising in accountancy firms described in an earlier issue of this journal [Watkins and Wright, Service Industries Journal, Vol. 5, No. 3, November 19851, this article presents some results from a recent survey of a regional accountancy market. These results show that a careful examination of advertising within the overall marketing mix is required, with other forms of marketing perhaps offering greater possibilities. The overall conclusion is that the cost-effectiveness of the advertising of accountancy services h s t be open to doubt.     

A Bayesian Multiple Comparison Procedure for Order-Restricted Mixed Models

A Bayesian hierarchical mixed model is developed for multiple comparisons under a simple order restriction. The model facilitates inferences on the successive differences of the population means, for which we choose independent prior distributions that are mixtures of an exponential distribution and a discrete distribution with its entire mass at zero. We employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to obtain parameter estimates and estimates of the posterior probabilities that any two of the means are equal. The latter estimates allow one both to determine if any two means are significantly different and to test the homogeneity of all of the means. We investigate the performance of the model-based inferences with simulated data sets, focusing on parameter estimation and successive-mean comparisons using posterior probabilities. We then illustrate the utility of the model in an application based on data from a study designed to reduce lead blood concentrations in children with elevated levels. Our results show that the proposed hierarchical model can effectively unify parameter estimation, tests of hypotheses and multiple comparisons in one setting.     

Accessing other people’s technology for non–profit research

As patents and other forms of intellectual property become more pervasive in the next generation of biotechnologies, designing policies and practices to ensure sufficient freedom to operate (i.e., the ability to practice or use an innovation) will be crucial for non–profit research agencies, especially those intent on developing technologies destined for commercial release. Are non–profit organisations exempt from intellectual property claims? What constitutes infringement of a patent? How does a non–profit establish its freedom to operate? We address these issues in this paper and evaluate various options for accessing other people’s technologies. Options include cross–licensing agreements, research–only or cost–free licences, market segmentation strategies, mergers or joint ventures, and patent pooling or clearinghouse mechanisms. Responding creatively to the new intellectual property environment will have far reaching consequences for the future of non–profit research.     

One little Lebanese cucumber is not going to break the bank: Price in the choice of fresh fruits and vegetables

This paper reports on empirical research into individual consumer behaviour in the context of fresh fruit and vegetable purchases. The discussion draws on research results from two studies conducted around the actual shopping process. The findings suggest that consumers' price response behaviour may not be consistent with that predicted by economic theory and that this could be significant at the aggregate level. The existence of 'acceptable price ranges' points to the presence of price thresholds within which consumers are relatively insensitive to price movements. Also of relevance is that the primary influence of the budget constraint may be at a broader level rather than at the level of choosing particular products.     

Indivisibilities,lotteries, and sunspot equilibria

Summary We analyze economies with indivisible commodities. There are two reasons for doing so. First, we extend and provide some new insights into sunspot equilibrium theory. Finite competitive economies with perfect markets and convex consumption sets do not allow sunspot equilibria; these same economies with nonconvex consumption sets do, and they have several properties that can never arise in convex environments. Second, we provide a reinterpretation of the employment lotteries used in contract theory and in macroeconomic models with indivisible labor. We show how socially optimal employment lotteries can be decentralized as competitive equilibria without lotteries once sunspots are introduced.We thank Kenneth Arrow, Aditya Goenka, Ed Green, Jeremy Greenwood, Walter Heller, Steve Matthews, Herve Moulin, Roger Meyerson, Jim Peck, Patrick Kehoe, Ramon Marimon, Ed Prescott, Richard Rogerson, Nancy Stokey and Raghu Sundaram for their comments. We also thank participants in seminars at Northwestern, Yale, USC, Cornell, Barcelona, Madrid, Santander, and the Canadian Economics Association annual meetings in Victoria. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation (through grants SES-8606944 and SES-8821225), the Center for Analytic Economics, the Thorne Fund, and the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation for research support. The views expressed here are those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.