The relation between forward prices and futures prices

This paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices. It develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices. These propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices. Many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets, even though they are not in themselves asset prices. The paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors.     

大力发展港口经济推动经济增长方式转变

很多国际化大都市都是依托港口和临港经济发展起来的.港口不仅为港口城市带来大量的物流、人流和资金流,更为重要的是,港口具有强大的资源集聚和整合能力,能够带动港口城市及其周边地区制造业的快速发展,进而为银行、保险、贸易、中介服务等生产性服务业,以及旅游、餐饮、商业、会展等消费性服务业的快速发展提供巨大的发展空间,使港口与港口城市以及周边城市群之间形成"港兴城兴"的良性互动,实现共同繁荣和发展.港口成为港口城市所在区域乃至整个国家经济发展的重要因素.     

Bayesian estimation of a random coefficient model

This paper carries out a Bayesian analysis of the Hildreth-Houck (1968) random coefficient model and applies it to some cross-section production function data. Posterior distributions for mean coefficients, actual coefficients, variances and variance ratios are derived. The variance ratio posteriors are largely uninformative but they do lead to relatively informative densities on the variances, and the problem of negative variance estimates, obtained with previous techniques, is overcome. Posterior densities for the mean coefficients are not extremely sensitive to the variance ratios.     

World Food Council's Tenth Session

The World Food Council held its 10th ministerial session from 11–15 June in the Africa Hall of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, which is located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The meeting was historic: ten years had swiftly passed by since the World Food Conference met in Rome. What had been accomplished? The solemnly proclaimed resolution on the eradication of hunger had obviously not been fulfilled. In fact, the world's hungry and malnourished continue to prevail at around the half-billion number. Moreover, Africa was in the throes of a food crisis which had almost swept across that drougt-plagued continent, at least south of the Sahara.     

Foundation of the Indian Ocean Tourism Organisation

An International Forum on the Indian Ocean Region was held in Perth, Western Australia in June 1995. One of the major related outcomes of the forum was the foundation of a new regional tourism body, the Indian Ocean Tourism Organisation (IOTO).     

Book Reviews

Andrew Macintyre, Business and Politics in Indonesia, Sydney: Allen and Unwin, in Association with the Asian Studies Association of Australia, 1991, pp. xv + 282. A$24.95.

Scott Pearson, Walter Falcon, Paul Heytens, Eric Monke and Rosamond Naylor, Rice Policy in Indonesia, Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1991, pp. xii + 180. US$32.95.

Raymond J. Struyk, Michael L. Hoffman and Harold M. Katsura, The Market for Shelter in Indonesian Cities, Jakarta and Washington DC: Hasfarm Dian Konsultan and the Urban Institute Press, 1990, pp. xxiv + 475.

P. Boomgaard and A. J. Gooszen, Changing Economy in Indonesia, Volume 11: Population Trends 1795–1942, Amsterdam: Royal Tropical Institute, 1991, pp. 253. Dfl. 48.00.

Peter Boomgaard, Children of the Colonial State: Population Growth and Economic Development in Java, 1795–1880, Centre for Asian Studies Amsterdam, Monograph 1, Amsterdam: Free University Press, 1989, pp. x + 247. Paper: Dfl. 49.50.

Mohamed Ariff (ed.), The Pacific Economy: Growth and External Stability, Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1991, pp. xvi + 322. Cloth: A$45.00; Paper: A$29.95.

L. Th. Schmit, Rural Credit Between Subsidy and Market: Adjustment of the Village Units of Bank Rakyat Indonesia in Sociological Perspective, Leiden: Leiden Development Studies No. 11, Leiden University, 1991, pp. 343. US$18.00.

Richard H. Patten and Jay K. Rosengard, Progress with Profits: The Development of Rural Banking in Indonesia, San Francisco: International Centre for Economic Growth and Harvard Institute for International Development, 1991, pp. xix + 114. US$9.95.

Hal Hill (Ed.), Indonesia Assessment 1991, Political and Social Change Monograph 13, Canberra: Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, 1991, pp. xx + 196. A$16.00.

Penjabaran Demokrasi Ekonomi [The Understanding of Economic Democracy], Jakarta: Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia [The Indonesian Economists Association], 1990, pp. v + 27 (Indonesian Version), v + 21 (English Version). Available from the ISEI Jakarta Office.

BRIEFLY NOTED: General Agreement On Tariffs and Trade (Gatt), Trade Policy Review — Indonesia 1991, 2 Volumes, Geneva, 1991.