Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

工业行业协会怎样参与世界经济大循环

我国的工业行业协会是一新生事物，以其民间性、行业性、公正性、国际性的特点，在参与世界经济大循环中做了大量的卓有成效的工作。包括：开展国际经济技术交流；协调行业经济运行；维护本行业在国际市场上正常运行；保护企业在国外市场权益；协调国内外产品价格；打破技术壁垒，重视知识产权，统一对外谈判；加强与国外有关行业组织的联系，争取较好的国际贸易环境；健全有关商检、检疫的法规，保障市场安全。一、借鉴国外行业组织的经验，充分发挥我国工业行业协会在国际交往中的作用，迎接入世挑战２１世纪是国际民间组织充分发挥优势的…