我国开征储蓄存款利息税的宏观经济效应分析

自我国开征储蓄存款利息税以来，居民储蓄存款并没有停止持续上升的势头，利息税政策基本上无效。其原因是利息税对储蓄的收入效应为正，替代效应为负，且收入效应的绝对值大于替代效应的绝对值。这样，征税后对消费和储蓄的总效应为消费减少而储蓄增加。为此政府应采取措施改善居民对未来收支的预期，并且应加快建设完善高效的资本市场的步伐，引导一部分储蓄存款进入证券投资领域。     

美国延迟退休激励机制分析——兼论对中国延迟退休年龄改革的启示

美国社会保障法案的颁布标志着现代社会保障制度的建立。在人口老龄化的背景下,美国对法定退休年龄和养老金领取年龄进行改革,逐步废除法定退休年龄,提高正常退休年龄,同时对养老保险制度中的退休收入核查制度进行调整,建立延迟退休补助制度,由此增强延迟退休对老年劳动力延迟退休的激励。美国废除法定退休年龄和延迟正常退休年龄的改革对中国延迟退休年龄改革提供了有益借鉴。     

中小微企业技术创新公共服务平台的建设与发展———基于小榄专业镇的案例分析简

以小榄专业镇的技术创新公共服务平台为案例研究对象,采用单一案例研究方法,通过对案例数据进行详细分析,建立了小榄专业镇技术创新公共服务平台的结构,归纳了其运行机制,并进一步梳理了其演化过程的3个阶段及其特征.最后提出加快推进中小微企业技术创新公共服务平台建设的政策建议.     

清洁技术投资的发展研究及启示

在全球气候变迁与节能减碳趋势中,清洁技术投资已成为许多国家维持生态平衡、解决能源短缺的重要手段。以美国、日本、德国为代表的发达国家都制定各种财税、金融支持等政策,投资清洁技术,取得了显著成果,已成为新的重要经济增长点。中国目前正向低碳经济迈进,积极投资清洁技术,加速新技术的商品化,促进产业向低碳化、高附加值转型升级。文章阐述清洁技术的内涵和投资动因,着重分析国际清洁技术投资的市场潜力、发展趋势以及相关政策,借鉴发达国家在清洁技术投资中的经验提出对中国的启示及政策建议。     

后危机时代广东沿海经济带产业结构升级的路径选择

国际金融危机给广东经济带来诸多负面影响,作为广东省地区生产总值主体的广东沿海经济带,其产业结构升级迫在眉睫。文章剖析了广东沿海经济带的产业发展概况,认为广东沿海经济带产业结构存在东西两翼与珠江三角洲之间的经济差距大、产业结构偏差明显、产业内部结构不合理、现代服务业发展不足和对国际市场依赖程度过高等问题,提出广东沿海经济带产业结构升级应选择以下路径:制定合理的产业政策,优化区域产业结构;协调三次产业结构,提升第二产业发展层次;大力发展第三产业,促进生产性服务业集聚发展和强化自主创新能力,以信息化推动产业结构升级等。     

Where can obesity management policy make the largest impact? Evaluating sub-populations through a microsimulation approach

Background: There is a critical need to focus limited resources on sub-groups of patients with obesity where we expect the largest return on investment. This paper identifies patient sub-groups where an investment may result in larger positive economic and health outcomes.

Methods: The baseline population with obesity was derived from a public survey database and divided into sub-populations defined by demographics and disease status. In 2016, a validated model was used to simulate the incidence of diabetes, absenteeism, and direct medical cost in five care settings. Research findings were derived from the difference in population outcomes with and without weight loss over 15 years. Modeled weight loss scenarios included initial 5% or 12% reduction in body mass index followed by a gradual weight regain. Additional simulations were conducted to show alternative outcomes from different time courses and maintenance scenarios.

Results: Univariate analyses showed that age 45–64, pre-diabetes, female, or obesity class III are independently predictive of larger savings. After considering the correlation between these factors, multivariate analyses projected young females with obesity class I as the optimal sub-group to control obesity-related medical expenditures. In contrast, the population aged 20–35 with obesity class III will yield the best health outcomes. Also, the sub-group aged 45–54 with obesity class I will produce the biggest productivity improvement. Each additional year of weight loss maintained showed increased financial benefits.

Conclusions: This paper studied the heterogeneity between many sub-populations affected by obesity and recommended different priorities for decision-makers in economic, productivity, and health realms.     

Parallel visualization of seismic wave propagation

Today parallel visualization of massive datasets from observation and numerical simulation of seismic waves is one of the major goals of geoscience community. A majority of these datasets are time-varying volume data (TVVD), also known as 4D field data. The difficulty of visualizing them on distributed parallel system mainly lies in the algorithm designing for distributed preprocessing of raw datasets, hierarchical point-to-point or collective communication implementation based on distributed data allocation, synchronous volume rendering techniques. In this work we present viable solutions for preprocessing of raw data sets, novel algorithms of parallel rendering and display matrix. Our main objective is focused on the parallel visualization of results coming from full 4D seismic wave propagation simulations.     

Friedman meets Becker and Mulligan in a monetary neoclassical growth model

We study a neoclassical growth model with the time preference determined by resources spent on imagining future pleasures along the line of Becker and Mulligan (Q J Econ 112:729–758, 1997). We introduce money into the economy via a cash-in-advance constraint and study the effect of higher seignorage taxes or higher monetary growth rates on capital, consumption and welfare in the long run. We find that if the fraction of investment constrained by cash is smaller than a threshold, the negative-monetary-growth Friedman (The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, 1969) rule does not hold and the optimal inflation rate is positive. Calibrating our model yields a mild optimal inflation rate per annum with a switch from zero inflation to optimal inflation creating a sizable welfare gain in terms of consumption equivalence.     

高层管理团队认知能力二维组合模型研究

高层管理团队(TMT)的认知能力是由认知辨识能力和认知调适能力构成,其中前者受TMT的认知异质性和团队凝聚力的影响,后者则受到TMT成员间的沟通和相互信任的影响。根据TMT的认知辨识能力和认知调适能力的高低,提出认知能力的二维组合模型。增强TMT的认知辨识能力和认知调适能力,使认知能力在贫缺、失调和失随3种状态下向协调状态转变。     

居民生命周期内养老资产配置研究

在中国老龄化进程加剧、养老金缺口较大的背景下,居民尽早形成养老意识、做出养老规划十分重要.本文基于改进后的BSM生命周期模型,结合当前中国经济发展的实际情况,利用Python软件对居民生命周期内养老资产配置状况进行了数值模拟,得出居民青年时期最优风险资产配置比例为22％～35％,中年时期为9％-15％,老年时期为4％～6％的养老金融资产配置结构,并从两个角度进行深化与分析:一是推测出居民养老资产配置的规模与变化规律,二是基于个人生命周期内不同阶段提出养老资产配置的长期最优规划.最后,将上述测算结果与一般投资理论进行比较分析,得出了长期角度居民养老资产配置的最优路径选择.