Capital liquidity and residents’ consumption decision: An asymmetry analysis of economic prosperity

Among the current literatures that discuss the influence exerted on residents’ consumption behavior by capital liquidity, some often independently decide the demarcation point of the liquidity restriction that affects residents’ consumption behavior, without taking into account when the economy is flourishing whether residents will be influenced by the restriction of the liquidity that their consumption behaviors can not be fully carried out. We introduce a threshold model which varies according to the actual GDP and other financial indicators (money supply, average stock index and balance of bank loans) to discuss residents’ consumption behavior in China under different economic states. The empirical results show that when the economy flourishes or resuscitates, residents’ income of the same period have not notable influence on their consumption, which suggests that residents’ consumption behavior does not considerably change according to the fluctuation of the current income, but conforms with the constant income-life cycle hypothesis. Moreover, two estimated values 0.7504 and 0.8597, as economic boom measures, all fall in the boom stable stage—basically consists with the early-warning index of the macro-economy boom issued by National Bureau of Statistics of China. It shows that the macro-economic boom is not notablely influenced by capital liquidity, so is residents’ consumption behavior.     

保险公司诉讼预期与和解相关性研究

近年来我国保险诉讼案件增势不减,有的历经一审、二审,有的还要再审。本文通过对北京某人寿保险股份有限公司2005～2008年和解、诉讼预期的调研数据进行描述性统计和回归分析,发现保险公司从自身和投保人两个视角对诉讼结果进行预期时,预期诉讼赔付金额和诉讼成本与其愿意赔付金额存在更强的相关性。但新的《保险法》提出后,保险公司预期诉讼赔付金额时较之前更多地考虑到投保人索赔金额,且保险公司预期诉讼赔付金额与投保人索赔金额之间的显著差异消失。     

国家制造业创新中心设立能否助推先进制造业发展——基于湖北省的准自然实验

工信部在全国范围内部署国家制造业创新中心,是推动先进制造业创新发展的重要举措,由此引发对该政策效果的讨论。为评估国家制造业创新中心设立对相应领域的促进效应,以湖北为典型对象展开事件研究设计,基于2016—2019年季度省际面板数据,采用双重差分法识别国家制造业创新中心设立对湖北省先进制造业的推动效果。结果表明,国家制造业创新中心设立的确能显著推动所处领域的当地产业发展。进一步检验发现,通过创新投入扩张的中介机制,该政策对集成电路制造业产出的促进效应最大,其次是金属冶炼设备和金属切削加工业。基于创新载体功能定位,发现创新中心建设能有效激励创新活动,服务于区域内先进制造业核心产业集群发展。     

Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions

We examine risk profiles of the Portuguese stock market index component stocks using a novel approach to the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Specifically, we estimate the CAPM via fractal regressions that allow studying the marginal effects at selected scales. In this way, we can reveal whether the risk is perceived differently by market participants with different investment horizons. Apart from the analysis itself, we provide new statistical insights into the issue of separating and comparing the scale-specific effects with statistical validity. We find several stocks deviating from an expected risk perception homogeneity across investment horizons. This is true for both analysed periods, i.e. before and after the global financial crisis. There are also several stocks that changed their relationship to the market portfolio in between, which has strong implications for possible portfolio construction. The proposed methodology is not limited to financial topics but can be used in any discipline where the scale-specific marginal effects might be of interest.     

Economic reforms,efficiency and productivity in Chinese banking

This paper analyzes the impact of banking reforms on efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change in Chinese banking industry. Using an input distance function, we find that joint-equity banks are more efficient than wholly state-owned banks (WSOBs). Furthermore, both WSOBs and joint-equity banks are found to be operating slightly below their optimal size, suggesting potential advantages in expansion of their businesses. Overall, TFP growth was 4.4% per annum for the sample period 1993–2002. Joint-equity banks experienced much higher growth in TFP (5.5% per annum) compared to the WSOBs (1.4% per annum).      

Can intertemporal choice experiments elicit time preferences for consumption?

The paper considers what can be inferred about experimental subjects’ time preferences for consumption from responses to laboratory tasks involving tradeoffs between sums of money at different dates, if subjects can reschedule consumption spending relative to income in external capital markets. It distinguishes three approaches identifiable in the literature: the straightforward view; the separation view; and the censored data view. It shows that none of these is fully satisfactory and discusses the resulting implications for intertemporal decision-making experiments. JEL Classification C90, C91, D90, D91, D11, D12     

融资结构、融资治理与企业价值——基于零售业上市公司的实证研究

我国零售企业由于行业的特殊性,融资结构不同于我国资本市场中的其他企业,其融资治理对企业价值的影响也不同。本文选取2004—2007年的数据就零售业上市公司融资治理对企业价值的影响进行实证分析,结果表明零售企业的债权融资并没有发挥其应有的治理作用;股权集中以及管理者持股对企业价值具有显著的正向影响;股权分置改革对零售企业融资结构及融资治理效应产生了显著影响。     

Why the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components matter: A test based on a model of Austrian descent

This paper centers on the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components by considering an economy with two representative firms, one producing a necessity and another producing a luxury. This difference determines their reinvestment opportunities. Therefore, while the one applies replacement, the other adopts scrapping. However, as these capital policies lead to different service lives, the analysis confronts the issues raised by Miller (Review of Income and Wealth 29:284–296, 1982, Review of Income and Wealth 36:67–82, 1990) and deals with them by drawing on Haavelmo’s (A study in the theory of investment, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1960) suggestions regarding the aggregation of capital. Among other findings, it turns out that the simulation results are highly robust, thus demonstrating that real-world implications may be even stronger than strictly suggested by the model.

Towards a New Austrian Macroeconomics

Austrian macroeconomists of the interwar period saw the economy as a complex adaptive system, in which macroeconomic variables emerge from the interaction between millions of purposefully acting agents. Recent advances in computation technology allow us to build empirically salient synthetic economies in silico, and thereby formalize many Austrian insights. We present a workhorse model with firms on an input-output network. Macroeconomic variables evolve through the interaction between micro-economic decisions. We use the model to explain an effect of monetary shocks on the price distribution and provide a sketch of other potential applications.     

Adoption of professional management in Chinese family business: A multilevel analysis of impetuses and impediments

Building upon the market, institutional, and cultural perspectives, this paper identifies the major impetuses and impediments that affect the professionalization of Chinese family business at the environment, firm, and owner levels. Our integrative framework projects that whether a family business owner will adopt professional managers is largely determined by the relative strength of impetus factors and impediment factors. We then discuss the possible governance choices under different configuration of impetuses and impediments. This theoretical framework is expected to help set the momentum for further conceptual exploration and empirical study in this area.