Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

The dynamics of moonlighting in Russia1

This paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting by the working‐age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory and that a desire to switch jobs expressed in the past is positively related to moonlighting in the present and to actual job changes in the future. We also find that workers who moonlighted as self‐employed in the past represent 26.5 percent of the new self‐employed. These results suggest that moonlighting in Russia can be seen as an effective incubator for setting up new self‐employed businesses, thereby providing long‐term benefits for the economy.     

Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006     

东北亚区域经济合作与中小企业

随着区域经济一体化的迅速发展，中小企业在东北亚区域经济合作中正发挥着日益重要的作用。     

第三部门的发展与政府改革的互动

第三部门的兴起被认为是二战以来的世界社会范围内一场重要的变革,对此,有学者评价认为,“我们是置身于一场全球性的‘社团革命’之中,历史将证明这场革命对20世纪后期世界的重要性丝毫不亚于民族国家的兴起对19世纪后期世界的重要性。”[1]考察建国以来我国第三部门的发展历程     

以人为本建设区队打造煤矿和谐环境

区队是煤矿的基本生产单位,煤矿建设和谐矿区首先应从区队人手。近年来,郑州煤电股份公司超化煤矿面对复杂多变的内外形势,始终贯彻以人为本理念,坚持以科学发展观为指导,围绕区队“人”字做文章,调动了方方面面的积极性,为企业发展奠定了坚实的基础,整个矿区呈现出了职工生活温馨和谐、安全生产稳步发展的好局面。一、深入区队了解人从实际出发谋划工作,按实际需要开展工作,以实际效果检验工     

亚洲货币一体化的前景分析

从国际货币体系改革的大趋势——区域性货币一体化入手，分析亚洲货币一体化的现状，认为创造亚洲的共同货币——亚元是亚洲货币一体化的理想选择。并阐述亚洲货币一体化仍然要大致经历欧洲货币一体化所走过的几个阶段。分析中国在东亚货币一体化进程中的地位和作用。     

影响银行卡追透的相关法律问题及其对策

我国银行卡立法相对滞后，致使实务中的一些问题无法解决，将影响银行卡产业的健康发展。本文分析了影响银行卡追透的七个法律问题，并提出了五个对策建议，以期对促进银行卡产业健康发展能有所裨益。     

武汉与我国三大经济中心城市的产业结构比较分析

20世纪90年代以来,随着中部地区发展的滞后,武汉市城市聚散和辐射功能日益难以承担中部经济中心的功能。基于2000~2006年武汉与北京、上海、广州等中心城市城市产业结构截面数据,本文采用区位商和资金利税率偏离度模型对比分解各城市产业结构指标,试图找出武汉未能担当中部经济中心的原因。研究表明:武汉产业结构老化,资金利用效率低下,金融业发展滞后是制约武汉成为经济中心城市的核心原因。在武汉的产业结构未来选择中,金融业、商贸物流业、汽车制造业、信息产业应成为未来产业发展主要方向。     

美国国家陆地成像计划

2007年8月,美国国家科技委员会发布了"美国国家陆地成像计划",该计划勾画了美国陆地成像和对地观测的未来目标和总体框架.本文介绍该计划的背景、目标和实施安排,并分析了它的意义和国际合作机遇.