Competition Policy: What are the Costs and Benefits of Measuring its Costs and Benefits?

Summary  Competition authorities are increasingly measuring the effects of their enforcement actions, seeking a robust justification for the proliferation of competition policy. We highlight the importance of identifying the right counterfactual against which to measure effects, and set out the relevant categories of costs and benefits. We then explore how a balance can be struck between the benefits and inherent limitations of these measurement exercises. Relatively crude analyses of cartel action benefits can be sufficient to achieve public legitimacy for competition policy. Assessing the effects of merger and conduct inquiries is often ambiguous, but could be used to improve decision-making processes. Director and Managing Consultant, respectively, at Oxera, Oxford and London. The valuable comments of Fod Barnes, Kerry Hughes and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

正度拟齐次Toeplitz算子的乘积

在Bergman空间上讨论了以拟齐次函数为符号的Toeplitz算子的乘积问题.使用Mellin变换作为工具,得出了当拟齐次函数的度都为正度时两个Toeplitz算子乘积仍是Toeplitz算子的充分必要条件,完善了以往文献中的有关结果.     

慎选客户与客户风险评估

●慎选客户的要点 1.了解客户.许多审计失败的案例,均与审计人员对客户欠缺了解有关.因此,审计人员首先应对客户所属行业的发展趋势、营业特性及经营理念有通盘了解.     

Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

论本币升值对国内物价的影响路径

本币升值可通过实体经济、虚拟经济以及货币政策三个途径影响一国的国内价格;本币升值通过国内物价影响经济稳定存在一个正反馈机制;从短期来看,人民币升值不仅不能抑制国内物价上涨,还可能推动国内物价的上涨。     

企业家认知惰性的管理学思考

企业家作为市场机会的发现者以及企业战略决策的制订者,在很大程度上决定着企业的兴衰存亡。当企业外部环境发生改变时,企业家往往会形成认知惰性,局限于过去的成功经验而不思创新,从而为企业带来衰亡。本文主要分析了企业家认知惰性的袁现及来源,在此基础上给出可能的克服途径。     

A market model of analysts’ opinions to explain changes in the dispersion of opinions

The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’ opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71)