Diffusion of mobile telephony: An empirical study in Taiwan

Mobile telephony penetration is a major indicator of mobile telephony diffusion. Taiwan had a mobile telephony penetration of 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. This study analyzes this accelerated diffusion in terms of growth model and determinants of the diffusion rate. To eliminate the inherent uncertainty associated with choosing the optimal growth model, this study compares the performance of three conventional models, namely Gompertz, Logistic and Bass, to identify the most appropriate model, and to distinguish the forces driving the diffusion rate. Empirical results indicate that the most appropriate model is the Logistic model. Network externalities, which this study shows to be the same as the imitation effect in the Bass model, explain the superiority of the Logistic model. Moreover, market competition, which markedly reduces service prices, is identified as a primary driver of the diffusion rate of mobile telephony in Taiwan. Economic conditions, technological innovation and number of operators are insignificant factors. Finally, mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed-line telephony in Taiwan.     

Rural telephone in Indonesia and Thailand: Social and economic benefits

This article considers the need for telecommunications in the rural areas of Indonesia and Thailand. Using the findings from questionnaire surveys in the two countries, the authors examine how the telephone is used when limited facilities are available, the effects of telephone service in terms of improved communication and work efficiency, and the consequences of not having access to a telephone     

居民个人理财工具持有状况分析及理财规划——以镇江为例

随着中国市场经济体制的确立和发展,特别是金融业的发展,居民个人理财工具越来越多,且仍呈发展趋势。本文对理财工具进行了对比,重点将各理财工具的优缺点进行比较分析,并就镇江市居民理财工具持有现状通过调查问卷进行调查研究,最终,对单薪家庭、老年人、中年人和营业主、未婚青年等提出理财规划建议。     

A Likelihood Ratio Test of Price Volatilities: Comparing Stock Index Spot and Futures

This paper uses three methods to estimate the price volatility of two stock market indexes and their corresponding futures contracts. The classic variance measure of volatility is supplemented with two newer measures, derived from the Garman-Klass and Ball-Torous estimators. A likelihood ratio test is used to compare the classic variance measure of price volatilities of two stock market indexes and their corresponding futures contracts during the bull market of the 1980s. The stock market volatilities of the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) indexes were found to be significantly lower than their respective futures price volatilities. Since information may flow faster in the futures markets than in the corresponding stock market, our results support Ross's information-volatility hypothesis. It was also noted that the NYSE spot volatility was lower than the S&P 500 spot volatility. If the rate of information flow and firm size are positively related, then the lower NYSE spot volatility is explained by the size effect. The futures price volatilities for the two indexes were insignificantly different from each other. With stock index spot-futures price correlations approaching unity, one implication of our results for index futures activity is that smaller positions in futures contracts may suffice to achieve hedging or arbitrage goals.     

建设生态文明的实践与探索——林业生态建设30年回眸

改革开放30年来,林业生态建设以生态文明为目标,坚持走建设生态、改善生态之路,在生态文明建设上进行了不懈的探索和实践,取得了令人瞩目的成绩。三北防护林建设工程为生态文明建设首开先河;开展全民义务植树运动谱写了生态文明建设新篇章;造林灭荒行动掀起生态文明建设新高潮;六大林业重点工程成为新世纪生态文明建设新壮举。中国可持续发展林业战略研究为生态文明建设提供了新理论,其核心是生态建设、生态安全、生态文明。发展现代林业掀起生态文明建设新高潮,推进生态文明建设走上新的里程。     

“后金融危机时代”深圳宝安区“三来一补”企业现状、存在问题及对策

本文在对深圳宝安区"三来一补"企业现状调研的基础上,分析了其存在的问题,并根据其目前的现状特点,提出了宝安区未来"三来一补"企业发展的对策建议。     

Estimates of the demand for medical care under different functional forms

We estimate price and income elasticities from a linear, log-linear, and the almost ideal demand model (with and without an adjustment for selectivity bias) in an effort to show that special attention should be paid to the underlying assumptions of consumer behaviour when estimating a medical care demand model. The literature on medical care utilization is extended by incorporating two major components of spending as separate demands in a system of medical care spending. We find that estimates of elasticities vary depending on the functional form of the estimating equation, thus questioning the usefulness for policy purposes of single estimates of elasticities.