A Likelihood Ratio Test of Price Volatilities: Comparing Stock Index Spot and Futures

This paper uses three methods to estimate the price volatility of two stock market indexes and their corresponding futures contracts. The classic variance measure of volatility is supplemented with two newer measures, derived from the Garman-Klass and Ball-Torous estimators. A likelihood ratio test is used to compare the classic variance measure of price volatilities of two stock market indexes and their corresponding futures contracts during the bull market of the 1980s. The stock market volatilities of the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) indexes were found to be significantly lower than their respective futures price volatilities. Since information may flow faster in the futures markets than in the corresponding stock market, our results support Ross's information-volatility hypothesis. It was also noted that the NYSE spot volatility was lower than the S&P 500 spot volatility. If the rate of information flow and firm size are positively related, then the lower NYSE spot volatility is explained by the size effect. The futures price volatilities for the two indexes were insignificantly different from each other. With stock index spot-futures price correlations approaching unity, one implication of our results for index futures activity is that smaller positions in futures contracts may suffice to achieve hedging or arbitrage goals.     

关矛房贷利率上调对房地产市场影响的几点分析

本文在2006年4月28日央行出台新的住房贷款利率政策以控制目前房地产市场过热现象的背景下，对房地产政策加以分析。通过对以往政策的回顾和新出台的以金融手段抑制需求的政策的分析，得出长期控制房地产市场过热问题的关键是控制供给政策和控制需求政策的配套运用。     

工厂自动化物流系统——企业物流技术选型

在制造业中，物流贯穿于工厂生产的各个环节．它们的联系是那样的紧密．甚至已经融入到生产工艺过程之中。无论原材料配送、零部件配送．还是成品酉B送，都需要进行合理的安排，生产过程中的工件和工具的存储、搬运、装卸更需要精密地规划设计。只有合理组织生产物流过程．才有可能使生产过程始终处于最佳状态．避免因物流不畅而导致的生产停顿现象的发生．同时还可以大大缩短生产周期．节约劳动力．提高生产效率．做到柔性化生产．．正是基于这样的认识，我们决定做这个专题。但是当我们用“自动化”这个词来限定专题的范围的时候，其实是很有些犹豫的。因为．就目前而盲．工厂自动化物流系统高投入的特点．足以让很多中国制造企业望而却步。但我们想．这并不妨碍制造企业去了解工厂自动化物流系统的装备特点、应用前景以及供应商的情况。毕竟．自动化是制造业未来的方向。     

张有为：设计通天之路

淘金户外广告，张有为有他独特的方式。创意的眼光是他的制胜法宝，在空港这一块户外广告的兵家必争之地，张有为在貌似饱和的局面下找到了突口，安身立命，出奇制胜！[编者按]     

纺织品pH值快速测量方法的研究

[目的]为实验室和现场快速检测找到有效手段.[方法]通过对各类纺织品表面吸附功能的比较研究,对棉斜纹布、棉绒布、丝绸及涂层布等纺织面料进行测试研究,经过萃取时间、萃取水量、测试稳定性、辅助稳定性、辅助装置的试验,确定了用平头电极直接测试纺织品表面pH的方法.[结果]该方法具有快速准确、不破坏样品的特点,测试所需时间比现行的标准方法快16倍.[结论]本方法适用于实验室和生产现场的快速检测,同时也为在检验现场进行快速筛选检验提供了一项有效的测量手段.     

合作原则与大学英语口语教学

随着国际化的日趋加强,英语口语教学的重要性日益突出。英语口语教学的目的是为了培养学生的交际能力,而语用能力是交际能力的一个重要的组成部分。本文旨在通过美国语言哲学家格赖斯(H.P.Grice)提出的语用学会话含义理论——合作原则,对如何提高英语口语教学提出一些合理建议。     

资源异质性农户的退耕还林受偿意愿及其影响因素研究——基于云南省2个县退耕还林的调研数据

生态补偿是激励农户参与退耕还林工程的有效手段,农户作为生态补偿的主要利益相关者,评估其受偿意愿对制定完善生态补偿政策以及实现生态保护的有效性和可持续性都有重要的现实意义。本文基于云南省2个县23个村组204份退耕还林调研数据,采用条件价值法(CVM)和Tobit回归模型,分析农户参与退耕还林受偿意愿及其影响因素。在此基础上引入了分位数回归,进一步分析农户在不同分位点受偿意愿的差异。研究结果表明:新一轮退耕还林农户退耕受偿意愿为2353.4元/亩,补偿期限5年,约为现退耕还林补偿标准的1.5倍。农户的资源稟赋特征及主观认知是影响受偿意愿最主要因素,且在不同分位数上影响系数存在差异性。在补偿方式的选择上具有明显的年龄差异性,年龄大的农户更倾向于现金补偿,而年轻农户更倾向于政策补偿和技术培训。因此,在加强生态环境重要性以及政策宣传的同时,适当提高退耕还林补偿标准,促进补偿方式的多元化,根据农户资源稟赋的不同,实现补偿标准的差别化。     

An exploratory study of earnings management detectability,analyst coverage and the impact of IFRS adoption: Evidence from China

Analysts serving as external monitors to managers is a topic of considerable interest in the analyst coverage literature. There are two outcomes of analyst coverage studies: curbing and stimulating earnings management. However, recent studies (such as Yu, 2008) only provide evidence supporting the curbing side. Given the fact that the data of these studies focus on developed markets and the finding of Rodríguez-Pérez and Hemmen (2010) that external governance mechanisms may stimulate earnings management in an opaque information environment, we conjecture whether stimulating side would be dominant in emerging markets. China offers a valuable setting for us to test the question. Using the data of China capital market from 2003 to 2009, we find that analyst coverage stimulates earnings management through above-the-line items (ALIs) where earnings management cannot be easily detected, and curbs earnings management through below-the-line items (BLIs) where earnings management can be easily detected. We also find that the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in China does create many new opportunities for managers’ earnings management but does not significantly improve the monitoring effect of analyst coverage. We only find that compared to those without analyst coverage, firms with analyst coverage have a lower level of earnings management through BLIs after IFRS adoption. These findings suggest that information opacity may weaken the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms and high quality accounting standards in the literal sense may not enhance the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms if it is not compatible with the market’s institutional environment. In addition, we find that firms with earnings meeting the benchmark have a lower level of earnings management, which indicates that bright-line accounting based rules used in emerging capital markets may constrain the managers’ behavior.     

科技政策对企业创新的作用机制研究——以广东省为例的实证分析

科技创新是立国之本、强国之路。政府在不同阶段制定相应的科技政策,以求持续激励企业参与创新活动、提高企业核心竞争力、促进产业结构转型升级。基于广东省2005-2017年上市公司数据,采用计数模型实证分析了地级市政府科技政策对企业创新的影响及作用机制。研究表明：科技政策力度越大,越能提高企业的创新水平;科技政策的激励作用主要通过研发强度这一中介变量产生;科技政策不仅能促进企业的策略性创新行为,同时也会导致企业的实质性创新行为;直接激励类型的政策对企业创新并无显著影响,而营造创新氛围的间接激励类型政策则对企业创新有着显著的正向影响;政策激励对非国有企业、非高科技企业的正向作用更加明显。     

农田生态系统碳足迹法:误区、改进与应用 ———兼析中国集约农作碳效率 (续)

近10多年来,国内外农田生态系统碳足迹研究蓬勃开展并取得了某些成果。同时也存在着问题与误区,主要是碳流路径的短路和指标逻辑起点不一,导致研究结果的失真与扭曲。该文论述了全环式与半环式碳流路径的利弊,提出了改进3原则,对当前世界流行的5种指标体系进行比较、综合、筛选、补充与改进,初步形成了适合中国实际情况的包括碳流路径、指标体系及相应参数的碳足迹方法论,并通过1950年以来的全国性农田系统碳流分析和现代高效农田的案例加以验证和剖析,与当前流行的一些主流观点相悖,运用改进的碳足迹法进行的案例研究发现:(1)与多年生林木相似,农田上连年种植的一年生作物同样具有净固碳作用;(2)1952~2012年期间,随着农业集约化程度的不断提高,全国农田生态系统碳效率仍保持在正平衡状态;(3)尽管农田化合物大量投入,但在农田生态系统内增加的固碳量仍超过耗碳量,化学合成物在农田生态系统的合理应用也有减少温室气体的可能性。