Index Revision,House Price Risk,and the Market for House Price Derivatives

It is widely recognized that options and futures markets for housing can reduce and manage the risks inherent in consumers’ large investments in housing equity. The integrity of such markets depends, however, upon the use of transparent and replicable benchmarks for house prices and settlement values. In the USA, a series of state and metropolitan indexes have been produced by a government agency (the US Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight, OFHEO), and they have been widely disseminated for over a decade. By construction, the entire historical path of each of these indexes is, in principle, subject to revision quarterly, that is, every time the index is recalculated and data are published. This paper provides the first analysis of the magnitude and bias of these revisions, and it analyzes their systematic effects on the settlement prices in housing options markets. The paper considers the implications of these magnitudes for the development of risk-reducing futures markets.

企业品牌实力与国家实力的关系研究——以中国、美国和日本为例

企业品牌实力反映了一个企业的市场竞争力与控制力。国家实力则是一个国家在世界政治经济军事和文化等方面表现出来的竞争力和影响力。以经济实力为主线,以国家ＧＤＰ和企业品牌价值为依据,通过动态比较中、美、日三国的企业品牌实力和国家实力演变情况可发现：企业品牌实力的提升与国家实力的崛起过程是一致的,中、美、日三国国家实力的变化与其所拥有的世界名牌数量变化过程也是基本一致的。     

依靠技术创新促进造船模式的转换

本文认为转换造船模式是船厂技术创新的主旋律,转换造模式需要进行体系技术创新,并提出了推行现代生产设计、实施托盘管理、建立团队组织、深化相关新技术的应用、加强职工培训等建议.     

Inter-market competition for exchange traded funds

We examine how the different mix of informed and liquidity trading in the market for ETFs affects the nature of inter-market competition. We find that both the characteristics of the securities and the structures of the competing markets jointly determine the nature of inter-market competition. Given the superior execution quality on the ECNs and the low adverse selection costs in the ETF market, anonymous market such as the ECNs, attract both liquidity and informed traders. We also find that markets compete in a subset of ETFs. In addition, we find that quotebased competition is prevalent in the market for ETFs.     

我国上市公司股利分配意愿实证研究

针对我国上市公司非理性股利分配现象，本文从代理成本理论出发，采用Logistic回归及因子分析双步骤法．对2004年沪市763家上市公司现金股利意愿的影响因素进行实证检验并排序。研究结果表明，每股净资产、上年度是否发放现金股利、净资产收益率、股本规模、第一、二大股东相对持股比例等影响上市公司股利分配意愿，股权属性和负债水平对股利分配意愿没有影响。     

浅析“公差原则”在形位公差新,旧标准中之差异

分析了公差原则在形位公差新、旧国标中的不同之处。     

世界经济失衡条件下的中国产业梯度策略探讨

国际间的产业梯度转移更替是中国对外贸易失衡的内在原因,而失衡引发的诸多问题则会削弱中国目前的劳动比较优势。本文探讨了通过产业梯度策略来解决失衡问题并保持长期增长的合理性和现实条件,认为中国已经具备向资本密集型产业过渡的基础,应该将劳动密集型产业由东部逐步转移至中西部,在避免失业冲击的前提下进行产业梯度升级。     

Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU

This paper studies the effect of banking deregulation on credit risk. Its theoretical model shows that a bank is willing to invest more resources in screening borrowers when there is an entry threat, even though loan rates are driven lower. Thus, deregulation may result in improved loan quality and lower credit risk. This result is tested using bank-level balance sheet data and macroeconomic data for the European Union. The data reveal that competition intensified after the completion of the Second Banking Directive, while loan quality improved in most markets. Evidence is found that the loan quality improvement is associated with lower interest margin.     

我国外汇储备的溢出效应研究——基于引力模型的分析

本文采用2000-2015年199个国家和地区的外汇储备面板数据,基于引力模型理论,考察了我国高额外汇储备的溢出效应及对全球资产配置的影响。研究发现:我国外汇储备具有随地理距离递减的空间外溢效应,双边汇率制度关联会增加外汇储备持有比例的相似程度,而且这种溢出效应更多地表现在与中国金融发展水平类似、资本账户开放程度相近的国家之间。上述结论凸显了国家间加强外汇储备合作调整的战略意义。探究我国外汇储备的溢出效应,有利于发展中经济体更好地理解外汇储备的变动逻辑,对于完善外汇储备管理体制,参与国际宏观经济政策协调机制均具有一定的积极意义。     

Compensating Wage Differentials with Unemployment: Evidence from China

We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.