Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

服装CAD课程建设与教学改革研究

通过文献搜集和实地调研等方法进行相关研究,得出服装CAD课程的教学现状种种不足,在此基础上,提出通过其软硬件建设、师资队伍建设以及网络课堂建设等三个方面完善服装CAD课程建设工作,并从教学内容、教学方法以及教学评估等方面对服装CAD课程进行教学改革尝试,以期更好地促进服装CAD课程的教学完善。     

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

This commentary responds to some of the issues raised in Zia Sardar's paper “Welcome to Postnormal Times” noting and attempting to explain points of difference and similarity. From Sardar's invocation of the 3C's of complexity, chaos and contradiction emerges the idea that our postnormal times might be likened to the strange times following the Great Plague that gave rise to the Alliterative Revival. Speculating further, it is questioned whether, in such strange times, utopian futures studies substitute for prayer.     

资源配置视角下战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程研究

采用案例分析法，以国家传感网创新示范区建设的决策过程为研究对象，从资源配置视角重新审视了战略性新兴产业基地建设的决策过程。结果表明，在战略性新兴产业基地建设决策过程中，地方政府充分发挥了主观能动性，与中央政府、科研机构及企业积极互动，获得了建设产业基地的资源。同时，中央政府完成了与产业基地甄选及部署相关的资源配置。     

Understanding repeat playing behavior in casual games using a Bayesian data augmentation approach

With an estimated market size of nearly $18 billion in 2016, casual games (games played over social networks or mobile devices) have become increasingly popular. Because most casual games are free to install, understanding repeat playing behavior is important for game developers as it directly drives advertising revenue. Game developers are keenly interested in benchmarking their game versus the market average, and understanding how genre and various game mechanics drive repeat playing behavior. Such cross-sectional analysis, however, is difficult to conduct because individual-level data on competitors’ games are not publicly available, and that the casual gaming industry is highly fragmented with each firm making only a handful of games.I develop a Bayesian approach, based on a parsimonious Hidden Markov Model at the individual level in conjunction with data augmentation, to study repeat playing behavior using only publicly available data. After applying the proposed approach to a sample of 379 casual games, I find that the average daily attrition rate across game is around 36.5%, with an average “play” rate of 47.9%, resulting in an average ARPU (average revenue per user) across games of around 20.5 cents. Certain genres are linked to higher attrition rates and play rates. In addition, giving out a “daily bonus” or limiting the amount of time that gamers can play each day are associated with a 17.7% and 16.4% higher ARPU, respectively.     

农业创业情境下商业模式设计的影响机制研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析

农业创业者如何通过整合与管理资源与能力，设计新颖型商业模式创造更多价值，是实现乡村振兴战略的关键措施。文章基于资源编排、商业模式理论，以央视《致富经》栏目40个案例为样本，运用模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）方法，剖析资源编排、机会能力、创业学习所构成的前因变量组态对农业创业活动中商业模式设计的影响机制。研究发现，资源编排在农业创业活动中发挥不可或缺的关键作用；相较于资源结构化和资源捆绑，资源利用在新颖型商业模式设计中的作用更为突出；机会能力须与资源编排共同作用，方可实现新颖型商业模式设计；在资源编排作用缺乏时，创业学习的发挥有助于新颖型商业模式设计的形成。研究成果诠释了农业创业情境下资源编排、机会能力与创业学习对商业模式设计的影响机制，为开展农业创业活动提供指导。     

Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - There is limited evidence of the role of household-level adverse trigger events in driving mortgage default, and the evidence based on proxies,...     

Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings‐Based Valuation Models?

This study examines how accrual manipulations affect firm valuation in the years surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We compare the absolute percentage pricing errors of RIM and DCF valuation models for a group of US firms suspected to have engaged in accrual manipulations to avoid a small loss or a small earnings decline vs. ‘Normal’ firms matched on industry, year and size. We find that RIM can better estimate intrinsic value than DCF for the matched Normal firms in the pre‐SOX period, but not so for accrual manipulators, and that SOX mitigates the harmful effect of accrual manipulations, completely eliminating the difference in RIM's accuracy advantage over DCF between Normal firms and accrual manipulators. As a further analysis, we redefine Suspect firms as real‐activity manipulators and find a significant across‐group difference in accuracy wedge in both sample periods, implying that SOX has prompted firms to favor real‐activity manipulations over accrual manipulations.     

From elite capture to marginalization of the poorest: a new social exclusion in anti-poverty programmes in China

Based on a case study of state-directed aid resources in anti-poverty programmes, we detected a new phenomenon of social exclusion in China. In a period of several years, a shift is observed from elite capture to marginalization of the poorest. This phenomenon occurs under the administrative pressure from the authoritarian state and the morbid democratic mechanism. Contemporary structural changes in economic and social culture also make it difficult for marginal people to escape from this predicament. From a social structural transformation point of view, we suggest that the marginalization of the poorest should be seriously taken into consideration in rural development programmes and policies.     

The price of going green: the role of greenness in green bond markets

In this paper, we empirically investigate how greenness information is priced in the green bond market. Our comparison of liquidity-adjusted yield premiums of green bonds versus synthetic conventional bonds indicates that, on average, there is no robust and significant yield premium or discount on green bonds. However, green bonds certified by an external reviewer enjoy a discount of about 6 bps. Furthermore, green bonds that obtain a Climate Bonds Initiative certificate show a discount of around 15 bps. The findings suggest that a universally accepted greenness measure can benefit the development of the green bond market.