石油价格与股票市场的溢出效应——基于中美数据的比较分析

本文以中美股票市场和国际原油市场的数据为样本,用VAR模型和二元GARCH模型研究了中美股市价格和国际石油价格的收益率及波动的溢出效应。研究结果表明,中国股市价格和国际石油价格之间,既不存在任何方向的收益率溢出效应,也不存在任何方向的波动溢出效应;而国际石油价格的变化率对于美国股市收益率确有负向先导作用,并且两者之间具有双向的波动溢出。     

百年大变局下的国际法与国际法治

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局，对现行国际法与国际法治提出了前所未有的挑战。二战后逐渐建立和发展起来的现代国际法与国际法治从总体上讲是进步的，对战后世界和平及安全、国际合作与发展、人权尊重和保障，发挥了不可替代的作用。但现代国际法与国际法治并不完善，无论是国际法规则制度本身还是国际法治的运行，都存在深层次的问题，还有许多不公正、不合理、不符合国际格局演变大势的国际规则、国际机制需要改进。当代中国已深度融入全球治理与国际法治体系，从学习者、追随者、受益者发展成为维护者、建设者、贡献者，坚定维护以联合国为核心的国际体系、以国际法为基础的国际秩序、以联合国宪章宗旨和原则为基础的国际关系基本准则，并在理念、原则、规则、制度等方面对现代国际法与国际法治贡献了中国智慧和中国方案。面对百年未有之大变局，中国要立足中国、胸怀天下，与时俱进、守正创新，加强国际法研究和运用，善于运用国际法治思维和法治方式有效应对挑战、防范风险，坚持统筹推进国内法治和涉外法治、协调推进国内法治和国际法治，积极参与全球治理体系改革和建设，积极参与国际规则的制定，推动构建人类命运共同体。 一     

出版企业境外投资的国别风险分析与应对--以F出版公司收购美国P公司为例

近年来,我国不少出版企业开始将境外市场纳入自身发展版图,境外投资成为出版企业国际化经营的重要手段。如何科学分析国别风险,合理防控风险,是我国出版企业需要面对的重要课题。本文以F出版公司收购美国P公司为例,分析并购发生前后美国的政治、经济和文化等方面的风险变化情况,梳理F出版公司的应对举措,为我国出版企业管控境外投资风险提出建议。     

A Bayesian Nonparametric Investigation of the Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Commodity Prices

This study proposes a full Bayesian nonparametric procedure to investigate the predictive power of exchange rates in relation to commodity prices for three commodity-exporting countries: Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. We propose a new time-dependent infinite mixture of a normal linear regression model of the conditional distribution of the commodity price index. The mixing weights follow a set of Probit stick-breaking priors that are time-varying. We find that exchange rates have a positive predictive effect in general, but accounting for time variation does not improve forecasting performance. By contrast, the intercept in the regression and the lagged dependent variable show signs of parameter change over time in most cases, which is important in forecasting both the mean and the density of commodity prices one period ahead. The results also suggest that the variance is a large source of the time variation in the conditional distribution of commodity prices.     

Mobile Corporate Social Responsibility (mCSR): Examining Publics’ Responses to CSR-Based Initiatives in Natural Disasters

As social media use on mobile devices has been integrated in people’s daily lives, corporations began to target the publics on corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities on mobile devices. In the context of a natural disaster, this study examines how publics respond to CSR-based initiatives by way of mobile corporate social responsibility (mCSR), including gratifications, social media engagement, perceived CSR motives, and the relationship outcomes as associated with mCSR practice. An online survey was conducted by sampling with 1,433 nationally representative adults in the United States. Findings indicated that four broad types of gratification, such as technological convenience, social interaction, recreation, and information exchange, significantly influenced relationship outcomes such as satisfaction, commitment, distrust, trust, and control mutuality. Results also demonstrated that perceived CSR motives and social media engagement on mobile devices were significantly related to relationship outcomes, providing empirical evidence for the important role that potential mCSR communications can play in engaging publics and cultivating relationships during natural disasters.     

The impact of mandatory IFRS reporting on institutional trading costs: Evidence from Australia

This study examines the impact of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on the market quality of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) 200 constituent stocks. Using traditional metrics that are consistent with prior literature (i.e., bid‐ask spreads), the first stage analysis confirms that stock liquidity has improved. However, when the analysis is extended to consider the trading costs incurred by market participants (i.e., execution shortfall), results suggest liquidity has not changed significantly. The paper utilizes rich unique datasets that contain detailed trade information, and findings are robust after controlling for trade difficulty and market conditions. In the era of High Frequency Trading (HFT) and occurrences of ‘fleeting’ liquidity, this paper provides some evidence that while IFRS may have enhanced ‘visible’ bid‐ask spreads, tangible liquidity for market participants, particularly global institutional investors, has not improved significantly.     

国际视域下德国科学计量学影响力研究

2019年普赖斯奖获得者是德国科学计量学家LutzBornmann，至此在30位普赖斯奖获得者中，德国共有两位学者获此殊荣，反映了德国科学计量学研究在国际上的重要地位。因此，有必要对德国科学计量学发展及国际影响力进行研究。以Scientometrics期刊数据以及施引文献作为数据来源，通过使用词频分析、战略坐标图、文献计量分析、Python爬虫方法、引文分析展现德国科学计量学在国际舞台上的战略地位。结果发现，第一阶段德国科学计量学发展处于较为领先的地位，但第二阶段稍逊于第一阶段。德国在科学计量学领域的发展有较为明显的领头羊效应，即第一、第二阶段都有一家机构、一名学者一枝独秀，引领德国乃至世界科学计量学发展。     

Factors influencing the adoption of the internet of things in supply chains

This study investigates the application of the Internet of Things (IoT) in supply chains through evolutionary game theory. In the modeling process, the payoff matrices for the game between the core enterprises and the suppliers and the replicator dynamics equations for these two parties are constructed. The punishment mechanism is introduced to prevent the “free-ride” behavior of core enterprises. As the key technology of the IoT, the radio-frequency identification (RFID) implementation strategies of both parties are analyzed on the basis of the replicator dynamics. Both parties eventually achieve evolutionarily stable strategies by adopting the strategies of other participants. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to validate the effects of the parameters on the selection of RFID technology. Results show that the willingness of core enterprises and suppliers to implement RFID can be strengthened by adjusting relevant parameters. Thus, this study could contribute in generalizing the application of the IoT in supply chains.     

人才头衔能否提升科技人才职业成就动机——来自我国一流大学建设高校的证据

职业成就动机是提升个体创新能力和促进创新行为的核心要素，由国家各类人才资助计划催生的人才头衔能否进一步激励科技人才创新备受关注。依据成就动机理论和综合激励理论，建立人才头衔、职业成就动机与创新成果产出关系理论模型，采用倾向得分匹配方法，对14所一流大学建设高校的抽样调查数据进行分析，验证人才头衔与职业成就动机的关系。研究发现，我国一流大学建设高校科技人才的成就动机普遍较高，人才头衔对科技人才成就取向、努力取向、专业充实取向和社会责任取向维度的职业成就动机具有显著提升作用。最后，提出完善国家人才资助计划体系、处理人才头衔与人才考核关系、发挥人才头衔对科技人才的正向激励作用等对策建议。     

An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Capital Expenditure Forecasts: Evidence from Corporate Investment Efficiency*

We examine whether the information conveyed in a relatively new analyst research output—capital expenditure (capex) forecasts—affects corporate investment efficiency. We find that firms with analyst capex forecasts exhibit higher investment efficiency. This effect is stronger when the forecasts are issued by analysts with higher ability or greater industry knowledge. Moreover, the effect of capex forecasts on investment efficiency varies with the signals they convey about future growth opportunities—positive-growth signals are more effective in reducing underinvestment, while negative-growth signals are more effective in reducing overinvestment. Cross-sectional tests suggest that these effects operate at least in part through both a financing channel and a monitoring channel. Taken together, our results suggest that analysts' capex forecasts convey useful information about firms' growth opportunities to managers and investors, which can facilitate efficient investment.