Initial Steps in High-Frequency Modeling of China

This paper presents the first step in building a forecasting model of Chinas GDP. Being constrained by a statistical history that effectively begins in 1993, it uses high frequency data and principal components analysis to construct a single-equation model that generates elasticities and is applied to two-quarter-ahead forecasts. Initial results suggest a gradual deceleration of growth, consistent with Chinese government policy.A version of this paper was presented as part of Lawrence R. Kleins Adam Smith Award Address at the NABE Annual Meeting, October 4, 2004. The Adam Smith Award Address was sponsored by Global Insight.JEL Classification C5,O53     

Benevolent leadership and follower performance: The mediating role of leader–member exchange (LMX)

This study examines leader?Cmember exchange (LMX) as a mediator of the relationship between benevolent leadership and follower task performance and extra-role performance. Using a sample of 223 leader?Cmember dyads in a nonprofit organization in the People??s Republic of China, results indicate that benevolent leadership and LMX are positively related to follower task performance and organizational citizenship behavior towards the organization (OCBO). Findings also support that LMX partially mediates the relationship between benevolent leadership and follower task performance as well as fully mediates the relationship between benevolent leadership and OCBO. Implications for the theory and practice of leadership in Asia are discussed.     

Multi-stakeholders’ assessment of bike sharing service quality based on DEMATEL–VIKOR method

ABSTRACT

Bike sharing is a sustainable mode of urban transportation. Assessing the perceived service quality is essential to improve the development of bike sharing. Most of the existing research evaluates the service quality of bike sharing only from the perspective of its users. This study assesses the perceived quality gap among four different stakeholders including government regulators, platform operators, bike association and users. First, an evaluation criteria system consisting of sixteen criteria obtained from the five dimensions of tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy is constructed based on a revised service performance model. Thereafter, a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making model that combines Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) with VIsekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) is proposed. Then, the model is applied to evaluate the service quality of bike sharing in Xi’an City. Finally, some useful suggestions are given to improve the bike sharing service quality from the perspective of multi-stakeholders.     

Provider performance reports and consumer welfare

A provider's performance report consists of his service average outcome and volume. The two variables depend on the provider's private quality type and current demand, but he can raise his average outcome by dumping vulnerable consumers. Prospective consumers infer providers' qualities from their reports. Performance reporting drives some providers to dump consumers when competition is intense, but it may not reveal providers' qualities when their average quality is high. Statistical adjustment aiming at making reports independent of consumer characteristics can lead to more dumping, less informative reports, or both. There is more dumping when volume information is withheld and less dumping when ratings information is coarse.     

Broadband penetration,financial development,and economic growth nexus: evidence from the Arab League countries

This paper examines the mutual relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth in the 22 Arab League countries for the period between 2001 and 2013. Financial development (represented by broad money supply, claims on the private sector, domestic credit to the private sector, domestic credit provided by the banking sector, market capitalization, turnover ratio, and traded stocks) is assessed both individually, and by a composite index. Our results reveal that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth. Additionally, we use a panel vector autoregression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality between the covariates. The most important insight of this study is the presence of bidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration in the long run. In addition, we find that financial development together with broadband penetration Granger-cause economic growth in the long run.     

An Approach to a Visual Language for Convective Fluid Flows: Visualization of Geophysical Simulations

It was known that deep within numbers and binary data from simulations of geophysical convective flows resided various patterns. Two models of convective fluid flows were being considered. One was a model of two-dimensional (768 × 256) air convection with finite Prandtl number of one and Rayleigh number of 10⁸?10¹⁰, and another was a model of three-dimensional (up to 120 × 120 × 90) mantle convection with infinite Prandtl number and Rayleigh number of 10⁶?10⁸. Clearly, phenomena existed which superceded each individual dimensionless computer model to provide a piece of information regarding actual fluid flows. The problem was how to find, prove, and communicate these patterns and phenomena for convection simulations with gigabytes of data. In a search for such an analytical and communicative tool, the alternative of visualization was considered. The need for visualization was recognized and discussed. Then, utilizing both two- and three-dimensional models of high Rayleigh number convection, basic techniques of style and content were developed. Applications of the visualization techniques were designed utilizing IBM’s Data Explorer in order to create communicative images and movies, and after the applications, the problems of data storage and transfer became apparent. Throughout the process though, it became clear how important the language of vision actually could be in the geophysics community. In a field in which words such as plumes and internal waves have in ways replaced mathematics as the basic language for science, there is a need for another resource, another language-the visualization of convective fluid flows.     

Optimal International Taxation and Growth Rate Convergence: Tax Competition vs. Coordination

Optimal international taxation and its implications for convergence in long run income growth rates are analyzed in the context of an endogenously growing world economy with perfect capital mobility. Under tax competition (i) the residence principle will maximize national welfare; (ii) the optimal long run tax rate on capital incomes from various sources will be zero in all countries; and (iii) long term per capita income growth rates will be equalized across countries. Under tax coordination, (i) becomes irrelevant while (ii) and (iii) will continue to hold. In other words, optimal tax policies are growth-equalizing with and without international policy coordination. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quasi-adiabatic shear zones in the lithosphere: numerical and experimental approaches

Continental breakup, or compressive lithosphere scale faulting, requires a physical mechanism for wholesale faulting of the lithosphere. We compared numerical and experimental models for the nucleation of quasi-adiabatic shear bands in polyvinylchloride (PVC) with those in an idealized viscoelastoplastic mantle with olivine rheology. In both materials fault nucleation is caused by elastic stress concentration on pre-existing imperfections, with localized yielding confined to its vicinity. Faulting occurs rapidly after the initial elastic energy in the system is charged sufficiently to cause wholesale yielding. Propagation of the fault, monitored by looking at the dissipation of plastic energy, reveals migration of a sharp, thermal-mechanical “crack”- like instability, which appears in the temperature field as a slightly diffused signal. The initial temperature rise in the crack is subtle but increases suddenly when the plate is severed. This autocatalytic behavior has also been described in ductile polymers, which can be used as mechanical analogues. We suggest that elastoplastic coupling in quasi-adiabatic shear banding is a key for fast (< 1 Ma) nucleation of shear zones. These nonlinear phenomena will be illustrated for both experimental and numerical results by nine movies