Belief changes and expectation heterogeneity in buy- and sell-side professionals in the Japanese stock market

We document the determinants of the expectation heterogeneity of stock price forecasters on TOPIX. Monthly panel data collected by QUICK Corporation in the Nikkei Group via surveys is utilized in the process. We examine the determinants of expectation heterogeneity by categorizing our sample into buy-side and sell-side professionals and demonstrate that the co-existence of different types of professionals contributes to the expectation heterogeneity. We show that buy-side and the sell-side professionals, who possess different business goals, differentiate the information contents as well as their interpretations of the same information in their forecasts, contributing to the expectation heterogeneity. In addition, we investigate the interactive expectation formulation of buy-side and sell-side professionals and find that buy-side professionals incorporate the sell side's ideas regarding future stock prices into their own forecasts, but refer exclusively to their own ideas when relating foreign exchange rates to future stock prices. Meanwhile, sell-side professionals tend to utilize buy-side professionals' ideas about future prices in order to improve their research and ingratiate themselves to their clients, that is, to the buy-side professionals. We demonstrate that this interactive expectation formulation also contributes to the generation of the expectation heterogeneity.     

A two-region model with two types of manufacturing technologies and agglomeration

A two-region model is proposed in this paper. Manufactured goods can be produced with cottage technology under constant returns to scale or with modern technology using differentiated intermediate goods, which are produced with increasing returns to scale technology. In the model, there may be multiple equilibria, and, in such cases, the initial conditions determine the equilibrium that the economy reaches. It is shown that strong increasing returns due to specialization and low transportation costs bring about industrialization with agglomeration. This framework explains the mechanism behind the different industrialization process in Japan and in less developed countries.     

Location of industry, market size, and imperfect international capital mobility

This paper examines the impact of imperfect international capital mobility on an industrial location when increasing returns are present. When the international capital mobility is perfect, agglomeration of manufacturing firms progresses with a decline in transportation costs of manufactured goods, and full-agglomeration in a large-market country is observed at low transportation costs. In contrast, when international capital mobility is imperfect, agglomeration in a large-market country progresses with capital trade integration. When the transportation costs of manufactured goods are low, all capital holders in two countries invest their capital into a home market.     

Trading profitability from learning and adaptation on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

This study proposes unexamined technical trading rules, which are dynamically switching strategies among filter, moving average and trading-range breakout rules. The dynamically switching strategy is formulated based on a discrete choice theory consistent with the concept of myopic utility maximization. We utilize the transaction data of the individual stocks listed on the Nikkei 225 from September 1, 2005 to August 31, 2007. We demonstrate that switching strategies produce positive returns and their performance is better than those from the buy-and-hold and non-switching strategies over our sample periods. We also demonstrate equivalent performance for switching with different learning horizons, implying that behavioural heterogeneity of stock investors arises from the coexistence of different strategies with varying degrees of learning horizons. Our result supports several research assumptions and results on agent-based theoretical models that successfully replicate empirical features in financial markets, such as fat tails of return distributions and volatility clustering. However, upon considering the effects of data-snooping bias superior performance disappears.     

Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors

We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single‐equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e. correlated with the errors. We show that even in the presence of endogenous regressors it is still preferable, in most cases, to simply estimate the break dates and test for structural change using the usual ordinary least squares (OLS) framework. Except for some knife‐edge cases, it delivers estimates of the break dates with higher precision and tests with higher power compared to those obtained using an instrumental variable (IV) method. Also, the OLS method avoids potential weak identification problems caused by weak instruments. To illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results, we consider the stability of the New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curve. IV‐based methods only provide weak evidence of instability. On the other hand, OLS‐based ones strongly indicate a change in 1991:Q1 and that after this date the model loses all explanatory power. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the relationship between the provision of waste management service and illegal dumping

The illegal dumping of waste has been a serious environmental concern of most countries in the world. This paper examines the relationship between the provision of waste treatment facilities and the frequency of illegal dumping. Our results show that a shortage of intermediate waste treatment facilities has played an important role in increasing the frequency of illegal dumping.     

Accounting System Reform in Japanese Local Governments

The New Public Management (NPM), of which the change from cash accounting to accrual accounting is considered an important tool, has been in fashion in many developed countries. Japanese governments, however, have preserved control of expenditures on a cash basis, though recently financial management reforms in local government have begun to adopt NPM ideas. Using a contingency framework which views the reform of accounting sub-systems (management accounting, financial accounting and auditing) as stimulated by a combination of internal and external pressures, this paper explores why Japanese local governments managed to survive without accrual accounting and the prospects for further reform in the future. It is suggested that system change itself can be accomplished by internal pressures, in the form of mandated policies, alone but that sustained external pressures by citizens are required in order to achieve the intended outcomes of accounting reform.     

Order aggressiveness, pre-trade transparency, and long memory in an order-driven market

Recent empirical research has documented that the state of the limit order book influences stock investors' strategies. Investors place more aggressive orders when the same side of the order book is thicker, and less aggressive orders when it is thinner. We conjecture and demonstrate that this behavior is related to long memories of trading volume, volatility, and order signs in stock markets. We investigate our conjecture in two types of artificial stock markets: a transparent market, in which agents observe all limit orders on both sides of the book and order volumes at those prices before they trade; and a less transparent market, in which agents observe only the best five bid and ask quotes with the depth available at these limit prices. The first market structure resembles certain actual stock exchanges in the level of pre-trade transparency, such as the Australian Stock Exchange, NYSE OpenBook, and the London Stock Exchange, whereas the second market structure is consistent with stock exchanges such as Euronext Paris, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing. We demonstrate that our long memory results are robust with different levels of pre-trade transparency, implying that the strategy constructed by the state of the order book is key for explaining long memories in many actual stock exchanges.     

Learning from private information in noisy repeated games

We study the perfect type-contingently public ex-post equilibrium (PTXE) of repeated games where players observe imperfect public signals of the actions played, and both the payoff functions and the map from actions to signal distributions depend on an unknown state. The PTXE payoffs when players are patient are determined by the solutions to a family of linear programming problems. Using this characterization, we develop conditions under which play can be as if the players have learned the state. We provide a sufficient condition for the folk theorem, and a characterization of the PTXE payoffs in games with a known monitoring structure.