掌握农村金融需求特点,推进农村金融体制改革

农村资金缺乏严重地制约着农业和农村经济发展,必须要加快农村金融体制改革。农村金融需求有着与城市金融需求不相同的特点,因此,农村金融体制改革要按农村金融需求特点进行。当前,农村金融体制改革必须在发展农村金融组织、转换农村信用社经营机制、加大对农村金融机构扶持力度方面有所突破,从而更好地服务于“三农”。     

"十一五"时期高技术改造传统产业的战略研究

“十一五”时期,是我国对外开放和经济发展都进入一个前所未有的全新发展的时期,对外开放与全面、协调和可持续发展,要求高技术改造传统产业战略在统筹国内外经济发展的基础上,着重实现以下几个重大转变。一、战略着眼点:从立足国内转向立足国际,推动新的国际分工体系形成所谓国际化,是通过适当的国际分工增加和实现一国的比较利益,其核心是实现和加快工业化和推动经济快速增长。发展中国家的国际化本身就是一种发展战略,而且某种程度是一种赶超型发展战略。立足国际化,意味着发展中国家要主动参与经济全球化,通过这个过程缩小与发达国家的…     

The rationality and efficacy of decisions under uncertainty and the value of an experiment

Summary A decision maker faces a known prior distribution over payoff relevant states. We compare the expected utility of this individual under two scenarios. In the first, the decision maker makes a choice without further information. In the second, the decision maker has access to an experiment before choosing an action. However, the decision maker does not know the true joint distribution over states and messages. The value of the experiment as measured by the difference in the two utility levels can be negative as well as positive. We give a condition which is necessary and sufficient for the experiment to be valuable in our sense, for any decision problem.An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title Noisy Bayes Updating and the Value of Information. We have gained from the comments of Stephen Coate, John Geanakoplos, Larry Samuelson, Timothy Van Zandt and seminar participants at Harvard Business School, Princeton, Boston University, the international conference on game theory at Stony Brook 1992 and the Winter meeting of the Econometric Society at Anaheim 1993. The first author received support for this project from NSF grant #SES-9308515 and a University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation Grant.     

领导风格与员工工作态度——互惠和信任的中介作用的实证研究

互惠和信任是社会交换的普适准则。本文基于社会交换理论，以中国境内各类企业972位管理人员为样本，试图研究领导风格与员工工作态度之间的关系，尤其是组织与员工间的互惠和员工的组织信任在其中的中介作用。在初步研究的基础上，本文对变革型领导、事务型领导、广义互惠、平衡互惠、员工的组织信任、组织承诺和离职意愿各概念进行了系统的探索性分析和验证性分析，接着检验了这七个核心概念的区分效度。研究结论表明：（1）变革型领导不仅直接对员工的组织信任和组织承诺产生作用，而且通过组织对员工的广义和平衡互惠使员工产生对组织的信任，从而提高员工的组织承诺和降低员工的离职意愿；（2）事务型领导仅仅通过互惠对员工的组织信任和组织承诺产生作用；（3）广义互惠直接影响员工的组织承诺，平衡互惠通过组织信任影响员工的组织承诺。研究结论告诉我国企业领导者，首先，尽可能锻炼自己，努力成为变革型领导者。其次，要努力塑造互惠和信任的企业文化，并且特别着重于建设广义互惠的企业文化和制度环境。     

服务业和制造业企业法人绩效比较

本文运用累积分布曲线分析经济普查数据发现,服务业和制造业企业法人相比,前者装备一个劳动力所需的资产量更多;前者的财务和经济效益比后者差;进入前者的投资门槛不比后者低。这些经验证据与大量理论和政策分析中的流行认识存在巨大反差。本文的经验发现提醒我们:在目前国情之下,大量资金投入服务业(尤其是生产性服务业和现代服务业)企业的机会成本,大于投入制造业企业的机会成本。所以,服务业发展应该分门别类、实事求是地推进。把发展服务业作为产业结构“升级”和经济增长方式转变重要途径的看法,也需要进一步深入分析。     

Strategic Reaction of Vertically Integrated Firms to Downstream Entry: Deterrence or Accommodation

The purpose of this paper is to analyze strategic behavior of vertically integrated firms when there is downstream entry, taking into account the balance between competition in the market and competition for the market. This analysis can serve to explain diverse distributional structures, including the coexistence of vertically integrated firms and independent retailers. And it shows that the relative efficiency of downstream entrants and the level of competition among incumbents are two major factors in determining equilibrium configuration.     

企业的物流战略及其模式选择探析

在现代社会，任何企业要生产就必须有物资资源的支撑，也就有物流。物流是热门话题，也是国内外发展的重点和许多企业竞争的焦点。在专业化日益盛行的今天，任何企业都不可能完全靠自身的实力来发展。为了使得企业的正常运作，需要制定自身的物流战略，战略的不同导致其模式的差别，物流的战略往往决定了物流模式的选择。     

县(市)级土地利用总体规划中耕地需求量预测方法及其应用

科学准确地预测耕地需求量,是制定县(市)级土地利用总体规划的基础.文章根据中国南方某县1996-2005年来的耕地变更调查统计数据,分别采用趋势分析法、回归分析法、指数平滑法、GM(1,1)模型法和灰色-马尔柯夫链模型的方法,对该地区耕地总量进行了模拟和预测.不同方法的预测结果表明,基于灰色-马尔柯夫链方法的预测结果更加准确可靠,更有利于土地管理决策者的经济决策行为.在当前耕地利用方式的背景下,灰色-马尔柯夫链模型可以作为县(市)级土地利用总体规划中耕地需求量预测方法的一种好选择.     

上市公司控制权转移与市场反应

国外有研究表明,控制权转移能给目标公司股东带来20%左右的超额收益率.本文通过考察我国1997-2003发生控制权转移的282个样本,发现控制权转移能给目标公司带来9%以上的累积超额收益率.而且,转移后变更行业、变更董事长或总经理、民营转给国有的样本转移时可获得的累积超额收益率甚至更高.最后,我们用多元回归模型进一步分析了累积超额收益率的影响因素,进一步证明行业变更、董事长或总经理变更、转移类型对控制权转移的市场反应有显著影响.     

Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.