关键风险因素作用下的综合管廊PPP项目投资可行性分析

近年来,PPP模式在综合管廊项目中得到广泛应用,在减少政府财政压力的同时也加快了改善民生的步伐,但综合管廊PPP项目高成本、低收益的风险降低了社会资本方的投资参与度.本文以社会资本方参与角度确定其承担的主要风险因素,然后基于风险因素与财务指标的关系建立综合管廊PPP项目投资决策模型,运用蒙特卡洛模拟风险因素下的项目现金流量并计算项目的 内部收益率判断项目的 可行性,同时模拟关键风险因素的变动对项目内部收益率的影响程度,确定在不同风险因素变动下项目的 投资边界条件,从而使社会资本方参考其自身条件作出投资决策.最后结合实际案例数据论证了模型的可行性,有效为社会资本方是否参与综合管廊PPP项目的 投资提供参考建议.     

Group Buying Commitment and Sellers’ Competitive Advantages

This paper examines a model of duopoly firms selling to an exogenously formed buyer group consisting of members with heterogeneous preferences. Two research questions are addressed: (1) when is it optimal for a buyer group to commit to exclusive purchase from a single seller, and (2) how does the presence of group buying and the exclusive purchase commitment associated with it affect firms’ incentives to invest in quality improvement? We find that, even though exclusive purchase commitment benefits buyers when the competing products provide similar quality, it may lower buyer surplus if one product is significantly advantaged and/or the competing products are not highly differentiated horizontally. This result is robust even if the buyer group is formed endogenously. In addition, contingent on the similarity between the competing sellers’ investment costs, the sellers’ incentives to improve quality may be positively or negatively affected by the presence of group buying.     

A bibliometric account of Chinese economics research through the lens of the China Economic Review

Very few studies on the assessment and evolution of Chinese economics research draw on quantitative methods, namely bibliometrics. Bibliometrics is a powerful tool that helps to explore, organize and analyze large amounts of information in a quantitative manner. Selecting the most important economic journal focusing on the Chinese economy – the China Economic Review (CER) – we classified and assessed all the (512) articles that have been published in CER from its founding (1989) to December 2010. Based on these articles, and undertaking an exploratory statistical analysis on three databases – a ‘bibliographic’ database (512 articles), a ‘roots’ database (over 10 thousand citations), and an ‘influence’ database (over 3 thousand citations), we concluded that: 1) ‘Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth’; ‘Economic Systems’, and ‘International economics’ are the most important topics for Chinese economics literature; 2) there is a trend in Chinese economics research for growing ‘rigor’, associated to a noticeable rise in the weight of formal/mathematical-based articles; 3) the ‘International economics’ topic does not influence nor is it influenced by Chinese economics literature; and 4) Chinese economics literature is characterized by a certain level of endogamy, given that its range of influence is rather concentrated (geographically) in China and the USA.     

粮食产业链整合的制约因素及对策研究——以河南省为例

长期以来,粮食产业链整合存在着精深加工程度低、粮食企业规模小、科技水平低下、装备落后、制度不完善等制约因素。为了使粮食产业链稳定高效的运行和发展,应进一步加大政策扶持力度,加快向精深加工转变,积极发展粮食产业社会化服务体系,实施科技兴粮战略,提高创新能力,培育粮食龙头企业,创立名优品牌,加快粮食产业链各环节基础建设等。     

房屋建筑工程施工质量控制的特点

房屋建筑工程施工质量控制的特点是由工程质量特点决定的。而工程质量的特点又表现为工程项目的工程特点和施工特点,所以施工质量控制必须考虑和适应工程项目的工程特点和施工特点,进行有针对性的控制。     

加快农业产业化经营 实现绿洲生态农业现代化

目前中国干旱区经济的主体是农业,而绿洲是其载体.当前绿洲农业现代化还面临农民受教育水平低、资金短缺、区域环境因素的制约和地域分布特征的制约等问题.实现中国干旱区绿洲农业现代化的根本出路是推行生态农业产业化经营,促进生态农业发展.     

我国中小企业市场适应能力地区差异的实证研究

中小企业的良好发展对于保持我国经济活力和经济可持续发展至关重要。从中小企业市场适应能力的视角,借助调研数据,研究了影响我国中小企业市场适应能力的因素,比较分析了东中西部3个地区影响中小企业市场适应能力因素的差异,并根据相关的实证结论,提出了提高我国中小企业市场适应能力的政策建议。     

住房贷款与房地产价格关系的实证研究——来自深圳的证据

本文围绕住房贷款与住房价格的关系展开研究,将住房贷款与住房价格视为内生变量,将购买住房成本、二手住房价格、住房供求缺口、收入住房价格比视为外生变量,采用深圳市2006年1月至2008年5月的月度数据估计了包括2个内生变量、4个外生变量的VECM模型。实证结果表明：深圳住房贷款与住房价格之间存在长期均衡关系,中央银行信贷数量调控效果要优于利率价格调控效果,银行业住房信贷政策整体上讲是稳健的,基于此并针对有关结论提出了政策建议。     

我国粮食生产格局演变及增产贡献研究

[目的]通过测算各省区粮食增产潜力和各省区可比耕地资源量,揭示不同阶段我国及各省区粮食生产及增产的特点及原因,揭示我国今后粮食增产的方向。[方法]结合生产力相对指数与耕地面积分析我国各省耕地资源量,测算了复种指数和单产对我国及各省区粮食增产的贡献率,测算了我国各省区粮食增产的潜力。[结果]我国各省区人均粮食产量差异明显扩大。1985~1998年间,粮食单产对粮食产量增加的贡献率为85.35%;1998~2003年间,我国粮食总产量下降,播种面积减少是主要原因;2003~2013年间,单产增加依然是增产主因,但播种面积增加的贡献明显提高。1985年相对生产力耕地资源的省际差异明显大于2013年,据该文估算,我国可增产粮食22.9%~43%,复种指数对于粮食增产的潜力十分可观。[结论]近30年来,我国粮食生产格局是"南降北升",播种面积差异是粮食生产省际差异的主因。1985~2013年间,粮食播种面积仅占农作物增播面积的15.48%。大多省区耕地复种指数提升空间较大,但多数省区现实的复种指数却在下降,原因是农业生产比较利益低下。进一步提高单产的边际约束效应明显凸显,提高复种指数应该是我国提高粮食产量的方向。     

Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply

In models of demand and supply, consumer price sensitivity affects both the sales of a good through price, and the price that is set by producers and retailers. The relationship between the dependent variables (e.g., demand and price) and the common parameters (e.g., price sensitivity) is typically non-linear, especially when heterogeneity is present. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian method to address the computational challenge of estimating simultaneous demand and supply models that can be applied to both the analysis of household panel data and aggregated demand data. The method is developed within the context of a heterogeneous discrete choice model coupled with pricing equations derived from either specific competitive structures, or linear equations of the kind used in instrumental variable estimation, and applied to a scanner panel dataset of light beer purchases. Our analysis indicates that incorporating heterogeneity into the demand model all but eliminates the bias in the price parameter due to the endogeneity of price. The analysis also supports the use of a full information analysis.