Decision-making in incomplete markets with ambiguity—a case study of a gas field acquisition

We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian Motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by time-varying volatility and fat tails; therefore, we use Gaussian generalized autoregressive score (GAS) and GARCH models, extending them to Student’s t-GARCH and t-GAS. Second, an important risk (reservoir size) is not hedgeable. As a result, markets are incomplete which makes preference free pricing impossible and thus standard option pricing methodology inapplicable. Therefore, we parametrize the investor’s risk preference and use utility indifference pricing techniques. We use Least Squares Monte Carlo simulations as a dimension reduction technique in solving the resulting stochastic dynamic programming problems. Moreover, an investor often only has an approximate idea of the true probabilistic model underlying variables, making model ambiguity a relevant problem. We show empirically how model ambiguity affects project values, and importantly, how option values change as model ambiguity gets resolved in later phases of the projects. We show that traditional valuation approaches will consistently underestimate the value of project flexibility and in general lead to overly conservative investment decisions in the presence of time-dependent stochastic structures.     

资本结构与财务质量相关性研究

本文以沪深交易所的纺织行业上市公司为对象,采用截面数据研究资本结构与财务质量之间的关系。研究结果表明:纺织行业上市公司资本结构与财务质量相关性显著,资本结构中的短期偿债能力与财务质量呈正相关,长期偿债能力与财务质量呈负相关,同时提出针对纺织行业上市公司优化资本结构以提高财务质量的合理建议。     

Which factors affect the duration of hot topics on social media platforms?

Quality & Quantity - Hot topics, as a common phenomenon on social media platform, play a major role in public opinion. This paper aims to discuss the issues about the duration of hot topics:...     

Multimarket Linkages,Trade and the Productivity Puzzle

This paper examines the relationship between firms’ productivity improvement and the volume of exports, and shows that it can be sometimes negative, which seems to be an empirical puzzle. The key lies in that we simultaneously take into account intermediate retailers (i.e. vertically) and multimarket linkages (i.e. horizontally). With convex cost functions, when market conditions worsen, the manufacturer increases supply to the retailer who is larger or more efficient in trade cost.     

Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008

From both theoretical and policy perspectives, it is important to understand if financial speculation contributes to the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008. In this paper, we disentangle the effects of financial speculation from those of economic fundamentals by focusing on exogenous changes of financial speculation in oil markets identified by changes in financial investor sentiment. Furthermore, we focus on a quasi-experiment setting, and investigate both sentiment-driven overvaluation of oil prices and subsequent mispricing correction. Our findings suggest that financial speculation might have contributed to the 2003–2008 boom/bust in oil prices.     

Variable selection for varying coefficient models with measurement errors

This paper focuses on variable selections for varying coefficient models when some covariates are measured with errors. We present a bias-corrected variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximations with shrinkage estimations. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, we establish the consistency of the variable selection procedure, and derive the optimal convergence rate of the regularized estimators. A simulation study and a real data application are undertaken to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed variable selection procedure.     

花土沟油田化学防砂技术研究与应用

分析了花土沟油田油井出砂特征,并根据花土沟油田地层特点制定了合理的防治措施,采用GFY-DMP低聚物进行了化学防砂现场试验,其恢复产能效果明显,防砂有效期长。     

News

Major Export Markets Going Up in Frist Four Months According to Customs Data,the export of textile and clothing accumulated to 70.255 billion USD in first four months,rising 27.05% from the same period last year.     

Man''s Wear Sales Rising 28.92% in First Three Quarters of 2010

According to the statistics of China National Commerce Information Center, the man’s wear sales of major retailers rose 28.92% year over year in first three months of 2010. The growth rate was 5.36 percentage points