我国企业债券品种创新研究

金融危机的爆发显示了滥用金融创新所带来的恶果,但这并不意味着应该对金融创新望而却步.目前我国资本市场发展初级阶段的特征表现为创新不足,多层次资本市场的建立需要以企业债券市场为首的更多金融创新支持.本文针对我国企业债券市场的发展现状和特点,提出了针对金融危机各类风险的企业债券品种创新意见.     

Bond risk premia and realized jump risk

We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with an estimate of the mean realized jump size almost doubles the R² of the forecasting regression. The return predictability from augmenting with the jump mean easily dominates that offered by augmenting with options-implied volatility and realized volatility from high-frequency data. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, inclusion of the jump mean can reduce the root mean square prediction error by up to 40%. The incremental return predictability captured by the realized jump mean largely accounts for the countercyclical movements in bond risk premia. This result is consistent with the setting of an incomplete market in which the conditional distribution of excess bond returns is affected by a jump risk factor that does not lie in the span of the term structure of yields.     

Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages

In this paper, we analyze the usefulness of technical analysis, specifically the widely employed moving average trading rule from an asset allocation perspective. We show that, when stock returns are predictable, technical analysis adds value to commonly used allocation rules that invest fixed proportions of wealth in stocks. When uncertainty exists about predictability, which is likely in practice, the fixed allocation rules combined with technical analysis can outperform the prior-dependent optimal learning rule when the prior is not too informative. Moreover, the technical trading rules are robust to model specification, and they tend to substantially outperform the model-based optimal trading strategies when the model governing the stock price is uncertain.     

保险市场逆向选择与顺向选择共存研究

保险市场存在着逆向选择。经典逆向选择模型认为,风险高的人会购买更多的保险,但大多数实证研究表明保险市场还存在顺向选择。本文认为,逆向选择和顺向选择虽然对立,但共存于保险市场,在此基础上构建保险市场均衡模型,并进行了仿真研究。     

商业银行信用风险压力测试的方法和实践

本文系统地总结了商业银行信用风险压力测试的主要技术方法,讨论了各种方法的优缺点和适用性,介绍了国外银行的实践情况,为国内银行开展信用风险压力测试提供参考.     

基于博弈视角的银行监管制度设计

银行监管制度的设计不能忽视银行、监管部门和社会公众的存在.实际上银行监管制度是以上三者博弈的必然结果.本文运用博弈理论分析了三者的理性决策行为,并在三者之间博弈均衡分析的基础上提出了一个前提、一种激励与一个约束相结合的监管制度设计.     

国有商业银行产权制度模式的评价与选择

现阶段国有商业银行实行的是"国有绝对控股"产权制度模式.针对这一制度模式存在的诸多问题,国内理论界提出了三种国有商业银行产权制度改革模式.本文在对三种国有商业银行产权制度改革模式进行全面评价的基础上,提出了国有商业银行产权制度模式改革的总体思路为:逐步减少国有股份比例.具体来说,短期内应建立"国有相对控股"的产权制度模式;长期而言,应建立"国家参股的多元化、民营化"的产权制度模式.     

强制保险能否提高保险市场效率分析

本文以社会福利为衡量保险市场效率的标准,分析了实施强制保险是否有助于保险市场效率的提高。文章首先证明了在信息不对称的保险市场中存在着市场失灵现象;然后通过比较实施强制保险前后社会福利的差异,得出结论:实施强制保险有助于社会福利的改善,从而可以提高保险市场效率。     

Optimal Insurance Under the Insurer's VaR Constraint

In this paper, we impose the insurer's Value at Risk (VaR) constraint on Arrow's optimal insurance model. The insured aims to maximize his expected utility of terminal wealth, under the constraint that the insurer wishes to control the VaR of his terminal wealth to be maintained below a prespecified level. It is shown that when the insurer's VaR constraint is binding, the solution to the problem is not linear, but piecewise linear deductible, and the insured's optimal expected utility will increase as the insurer becomes more risk-tolerant. Basak and Shapiro (2001) showed that VaR risk managers often choose larger risk exposures to risky assets. We draw a similar conclusion in this paper. It is shown that when the insured has an exponential utility function, optimal insurance based on VaR constraint causes the insurer to suffer larger losses than optimal insurance without insurer's risk constraint.     

二代继任方式、家族权威与家族企业创新投入

代际传承背景下家族企业创新投入是家族企业治理研究领域的重要问题。分析和检验了差异化二代继任方式如何影响家族企业创新投资水平,以及二者关系是否会依赖于家族权威差异而发生变化。研究结果发现：与渐进型二代继任相比,激进型二代继任会削减家族企业创新投入;二代继任方式与家族企业创新投入关系受到家族权威的影响。在家族成员权威和非家族创业元老权威较重的企业,激进型继任者对家族企业创新投入的削弱效应更显著。进一步研究发现,二代继任3年后,激进型继任者对家族企业创新投入的负面影响显著下降,且其削弱效应在规模较大企业以及创立时间较长的企业中更显著。