Marcos M. López de Prado: Machine learning for asset managers

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management -     

Information Sharing in Contests

We study the incentives to share private information ahead of contests, such as markets with promotional competition, procurement contests, or research and development (R&D). We consider the cases where firms have (i) independent values and (ii) common values of winning the contest. In both cases, when decisions to share information are made independently, sharing information is strictly dominated. With independent values, an industry‐wide agreement to share information can arise in equilibrium. Expected effort is lower with than without information sharing. With common values, an industry‐wide agreement to share information never arises in equilibrium. Expected effort is higher with than without information sharing.     

Organisational consequences of asymmetries in task dependence: the moderating role of HR practices

This study integrates recent advances in interdependence theory with the literature on commitment‐based HR practices. New research on interdependence theory suggests that differences, or asymmetries, in task dependence among organisational members can cause interests to diverge. Prior research has shown that this can negatively affect interpersonal relations, individual outcomes and team processes. However, these insights gained on the dyadic, individual and team levels of analysis have not yet been explored at the organisational level and, until now, no research had yet connected these advances in interdependence theory to the field of HRM research. Hence, the current study investigates (a) whether asymmetries in task dependence do (or do not) matter at the organisational level and affect organisational effectiveness, (b) why this relationship may work by assessing a key mediator, namely, trust climate and (c) if and how these relationships can be altered by commitment‐based HR practices. Our moderated‐mediation model was tested and fully supported by a multi‐source data set of 8,390 employees from 67 organisations.     

The Foundations of International Business: Cross‐Border Investment Activity and the Balance between Market‐Power and Efficiency Effects

The foundational international business (IB) scholarship grappled with whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) are largely efficiency‐enhancing or market‐power inducing institutions. Contemporary scholarship, however, often associates foreign direct investment (FDI) with efficiency‐enhancing properties and thus neglects the market‐power interpretation of the MNE. Such an imbalance is problematic given that the theoretical and empirical justifications behind the field's embrace of the efficiency interpretation are not fully evident. Instead, both efficiency and market‐power effects are seemingly present in cross‐border investment activity. Based on a comprehensive sample of up to 4,361 cross‐border investments materializing between 1986 and 2010, we present theoretically‐grounded hypotheses with regard to when market‐power effects will tend to dominate efficiency effects. We find that cross‐border investments undertaken by emerging‐market MNEs in both developed and emerging markets tend to involve substantial efficiency effects and minimal market‐power effects when compared with the cross‐border investments undertaken by developed‐country MNEs in both developed and emerging markets.     

To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area

In this article, convergence of unit labor cost (ULC) inflation within the Euro area is tested by means of panel unit root tests. To account for the small cross-sectional dimension, cross-sectional dependence of model innovations and time varying volatility, wild bootstrap critical values are employed for inference. Convergence is tested separately for pre- and post-Euro introduction subperiods. Moreover, we identify particular economies that are characterized by diverging ULC inflation after the introduction of the Euro. While the German economy is characterized by ULC inflation which is persistently below the sample average, Spain and Italy have suffered sustained losses of price competitiveness against their trading partners within the Euro area. ULC inflation in Finland, France, and Ireland can be classified as neutral with respect to relative competitive positions.     

Start-ups, long- and short-term survivors, and their contribution to employment growth

This study documents that the survival of start-ups is central in explaining the relationship between entry and regional employment growth. Distinguishing between start-ups according to the period of their survival shows that the positive effect of new business formation on employment growth is mainly driven by those new businesses that are strong enough to remain in the market for a certain period of time. This result is especially pronounced for the relationship between the surviving start-ups and employment growth in incumbent businesses indicating that there are significantly positive indirect effects of new business formation on regional development. We draw conclusions for policy and make suggestions for further research.     

Information acquisition in conflicts

This paper considers incentives for information acquisition ahead of conflicts. First, we characterize the (unique) equilibrium of the all-pay auction between two players with one-sided asymmetric information where one player has private information about his valuation. Then, we use our results to study information acquisition prior to an all-pay auction. If the decision to acquire information is observable, but not the information received, one-sided asymmetric information can occur endogenously in equilibrium. Moreover, the cut-off values of the cost of information that determine equilibrium information acquisition are higher than those in the first best. Thus, information acquisition is excessive. In contrast, with open or covert information acquisition, the equilibrium cut-off values are as in the first best.     

A Test of Strategic Trade Policy in the Semiconductor Industry: The Impact of Japanese Policy on U.S. Firms

This paper analyzes a multinational corporation that may use tax evasion and profit shifting as a means to minimize tax liabilities. Our main finding is that profit shifting may occur even when tax rates are the same across countries. This will be the case whenever there is a tax differential in effective tax rates resulting from differences in tax enforcement. In this context, profit shifting occurs to enable tax evasion in a country where tax enforcement is less harsh. Moreover, for a given differential in tax rates, differences in tax enforcement may either accentuate or dampen profit shifting. Importantly, the predictions regarding the direction of profit shifting that would result in our set-up may contrast sharply with those of the preceding literature.     

Adverse selection in credit markets and regressive profit taxation

In many countries, taxes on businesses are less progressive than labor income taxes. This paper provides a justification for this pattern based on adverse selection that entrepreneurs face in credit markets. Individuals choose between becoming entrepreneurs or workers and differ in their skill in both of these occupations. I find that endogenous cross-subsidization in the credit market equilibrium results in excessive (insufficient) entry of low-skilled (high-skilled) agents into entrepreneurship. This gives rise to a corrective role for differential taxation of entrepreneurial profits and labor income. In particular, a profit tax that is regressive relative to taxes on labor income restores the efficient occupational choice.