Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.     

Tranching and Rating

In this paper we analyse the source and magnitude of marketing gains from selling structured debt securities at yields that reflect only their credit ratings, or specifically at yields on equivalently rated corporate bonds. We distinguish between credit ratings that are based on probabilities of default and ratings that are based on expected default losses. We show that subdividing a bond issued against given collateral into subordinated tranches can yield significant profits under the hypothesised pricing system. Increasing the systematic risk or reducing the total risk of the bond collateral increases the profits further. The marketing gain is generally increasing in the number of tranches and decreasing in the rating of the lowest rated tranche.     

Reframing gender and feminist knowledge construction in marketing and consumer research: missing feminisms and the case of men and masculinities

Abstract

Gender has been theorised and studied in many ways and across different disciplines. Although a number of these theorisations have been recognised and adopted in marketing and consumer research, the significance of feminism in knowledge construction has largely remained what we would call ‘unfinished’. Based on a critical reframing of gender research in marketing and consumer research, in dialogue with feminist theory, this article offers theoretical and practical suggestions for how to reinvigorate these research efforts. The analysis highlights dominant theorisations of gender, relating to gender as variable, difference and role; as fundamental difference and structuring; and as cultural and identity constructions. This reframing emphasises various neglected or ‘missing feminisms’, including queer theory; critical race, intersectional and transnational feminisms; material-discursive feminism; and critical studies on men and masculinities. A more detailed discussion of the latter, as a relatively new, growing and politically contentious area, is further developed to highlight more specifically which feminist and gender theories are mainly in use in marketing and consumer research and which are little or not used. In the light of this, it is argued that marketing and related disciplines have thus far largely neglected several key contemporary gender and feminist theorisations, particularly those that centre on gender power relations. The potential impact of these theoretical frames on transdisciplinary studies in marketing and consumer research and research agenda(s) is discussed.     

ARE TREASURY INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES REALLY TAX DISADVANTAGED?

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury introduced Inflation Protected Securities, commonly known as TIPS. Several in the finance field have since described these securities as “tax disadvantaged” relative to conventional securities, leading to serious questions regarding their appropriateness outside of tax‐deferred accounts. In this article, we develop a framework that demonstrates that at least in a real sense the tax treatment of TIPS is trivially different from that of conventional Treasury securities. Moreover, empirically we find evidence that TIPS generally have after‐tax yields comparable to, if not exceeding, conventional fixed‐rate Treasury securities. We also show that TIPS have generally outperformed matched‐maturity conventional Treasury securities in terms of after‐tax rates of return.     

Consumer reporting: A conceptual framework for the organizational level

In this paper, a conceptual framework for consumer reporting at the organizational level is developed. Consumer reporting is defined as the provision of information by an organization to its consumers with respect to the effects of its activities judged relevant by those consumers. In this context, the term organization covers business firms but also governmental agencies, hospitals, charities, and other non-profit organizations with relations to their consumers/clients.The concept of consumer satisfaction is regarded as the core element of consumer reporting. Several issues with respect to consumer satisfaction and dissatisfaction as well as their measurement are discussed. It is concluded that perceptual indicators of consumer satisfaction should constitute the core of consumer reporting in establishing the consumer profile of the organization. However, additional information could be provided too, for instance situational indicators of consumer satisfaction or information about consumer dissatisfaction. All of this information should be geared towards the goal of accounting for the resulting organizational strategy and policies towards the consumers. Several practical examples are given to illustrate the items about which information can be provided and the fact that consumer reporting can be realized in practice.

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Berichterstattung von Organisationen für Verbraucher: ein konzeptioneller Rahmen

Zusammenfassung Eine solche Berichterstattung wird im vorliegenden Beitrag definiert als Informationen einer Organisation für ihre Konsumenten über diejenigen Wirkungen ihrer Aktivitäten, die von diesen Konsumenten für wichtig gehalten werden. Der Begriff Organisation steht hier nicht nur für kommerzielle Firmen, sondern auch für Behörden, Krankenhäuser, Stiftungen und andere nicht gewinnorientierte Organisationen mit ihren jeweiligen Beziehungen zu ihren Verbrauchern bzw. Klienten.Das Konzept der Verbraucherzufriedenheit steht dabei im Mittelpunkt. Deshalb werden zunächst dieses Konzept und die Methoden zur Messung von Verbraucherzufriedenheit diskutiert. Ergebnis ist dabei, daß das Konsumentenprofil einer Organisation durch perzipierte Indikatoren ermöglicht wird. Figur 1 gibt hierfür ein Beispiel. Das Konsumentenprofiel kann durch situative Indikatoren und durch Informationen über Verbraucherzufriedenheit ergänzt werden (Figur 2). Alle diese Informationen sollten zum Ziel haben, die Unternehmenspolitik gegenüber den Konsumenten zu verantworten.Zum Schluß werden einige praktische Beispiele behandelt, die einerseits zeigen, welche Informationen solche Berichterstattungen enthalten können, und andererseits, daß es in der Praxis bereits Ansätze in dieser Richtung gibt.

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Hans Kasper is Associate Professor of Marketing and Hein Schreuder Professor of Business Economics at the Faculty of Economics, University of Limburg, P.O. Box 616, NL-6200 MD Masstricht, The Netherlands.     

Accounting and corporate accountability: a postscript

This paper comments upon Benston's analysis (Accounting, Organizations and Society, 1982, pp. 87–105) of corporate social accounting and reporting. It scrutinizes the mode of reasoning employed by Benston and pinpoints a number of deficiencies. Furthermore, it challenges the very framework of the analysis, questioning the appropriateness of the perspective adopted and revealing the normative issues involved. Our comments attempt to indicate that the value premises implicit in Benston's analysis are not the only ones possible or acceptable.