Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

In response to a request by the guest editors, we have set down our thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with our immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future. Our focus is on the changing roles of Delphi. Most importantly, with the profound impact of the internet on organizational and community planning systems, it will foster a new age of participation through communication, coordination, and collaboration.     

No escape from the dominant theories: The analysis of intellectual pillars of technology management in developing countries

This paper aims to identify the intellectual bases of the technology management (TM) literature generated in developing countries using citation and co-citation analyses and answer the question of whether the intellectual bases of the TM literature created by authors in developing countries diverge from those of the global TM literature. Based on a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of ten technology-innovation management (TIM) specialty journals through the period of 1998-2007, this study produces three important findings. First, the TM literature generated in developing countries is dominated by the knowledge and theories created in developed countries. Second, among these knowledge sources some authors from developing countries and focusing on the specialties of developing countries, such as Kim and Lall, come into prominence; however these authors are not even mentioned in the previous bibliometric studies covering overall TM research. Finally the researchers in developing countries tackle with the issues or topics specific to their own context through combining three major bulks of literature. These are (i) resource-based view (RBV)/core competencies and organizational learning related research; (ii) literature dealing with the evolutionary theorizing on economic change and growth and (iii) literature related to technological capabilities, technology transfer and industrialization in developing countries.     

A heuristic procedure to identify the most valuable chain of patent priority network

In this study, we provide support for the argument that patents are at their maximum value at those times when they are under litigation. We develop a heuristic procedure to determine the way in which such patents under litigation form a network of patent family members, and then go on to examine the priority patents involved. We subsequently attempt to develop a simple procedure to further identify both the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains within our proposed patent priority network. We suggest that the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains that are created within the above network provide companies with important information which will ultimately provide them with valuable support for the subsequent decision of their patent portfolio strategies.     

Technical change and total factor productivity growth: The case of Chinese provinces

In the literature technical change (TC) is mostly assumed to be exogenous and specified as a function of the time trend or time dummies. However, some exogenous external factors other than time can also affect TC. In this paper we model TC via time trend (external non-economic) as well as other exogenous (external economic) factors (technology shifters). For this we define technology indices based on the external economic factors and the time trend. The specification of production function is then amended to accommodate these technology indices which are not necessarily separable from the traditional inputs. That is, these technology indices allow for non-neutral shift in the production function. In doing so we are able to decompose TC (a component of TFP change) into two parts. One part is driven by time and the other part is related to producer-specific external economic factors. The latter can further be decomposed into each external economic factors. The empirical model uses panel data on Chinese provinces. We identify a number of key technology shifters and their effect on technical change and TFP growth of provinces are examined.     

Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach

The strategic importance of monitoring technological changes is highlighted given the ever faster pace and increasing complexity of technological innovation. In this respect, patent citation analysis has been the most frequently adopted tool among others. However, patent citation analysis is subject to certain drawbacks that stem from only consideration of citing-cited information and time lags between citing and cited patents. This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes. The FCA is a mathematical tool for grouping objects with shared properties based on the lattice theory. The distinct strengths of FCA, vis-á-vis other methods, lie in structuring and displaying the relations among objects from a massive amount of data. For the purpose of technology monitoring, the FCA is modified to take into account time periods and changes of patent keywords. A patent context is first constructed with the aid of domain experts and text mining technique. Two types of dynamic patent lattices are then developed by executing the modified FCA algorithm. A case study of laser technology in lithography for semiconductor manufacturing shows that the suggested dynamic patent lattice has considerable advantages over conventional patent citation maps in terms of visualization and informative power.     

Model for evaluating the environmental sustainability of energy projects

This article focuses on the problem of assessing the environmental sustainability of energy projects. For this purpose an original model, which is based on various indicators that measure the environmental sustainability of energy projects, has been developed. This model, so called index of environmental sustainability of energy projects (IESEP), can be used in scenario comparison, while measuring the effectiveness of the proposed alternatives. Finally, an example of how to use this model is provided by analyzing alternatives to ameliorate the environmental sustainability of a hydroelectric project. In doing so, it is possible to show the usefulness of this model when used as a decision making tool for energy planners.     

The state of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets: A multidisciplinary literature review

The objective of this research work is to study the progress of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and outline and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles and authors. For this the author studied the existing literature from the various fields in which technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets research work have been published using ISI Web of Knowledge database. The paper finds that there is increasing research work on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and the bibliographical search resulted in ninety-one documents written by one-hundred-sixty-one authors in eighty-four journals in seventy-two disciplines. The five major disciplines and their underlying journals are business and economics, agriculture, psychology, public administration, and environmental sciences and ecology accounting for majority of publications. In journals the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine, World Development, and Higher Education; and most influential, measured by the global citation received, are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine and Sociological Review. The top 10% of the journals are responsible for 23% of all publications but 85% of all global citations received. This highlights that despite the high, diverse and increasing number of journals; only few are dominating and shaping the research arena of technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets. Further, in the ten most cited articles, no author appears more than once.     

Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan

This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research.