Identification and classification of problems associated with evaluating social marketing efforts

The social, cultural, and economic climate of the 1980's present real pressure on social program administrators to evaluate their marketing efforts. Evaluation of social programs presents an array of problems or obstacles about which the social marketer must be aware. This paper identifies and categorizes these problems within a meaningful framework. The typology presented classifies social marketing program evaluation problems as being conceptual, macro- and micropolitical, and methodological. An understanding of the nature of these problems should assist the social marketer in overcoming their effects.     

The Borrower's Perceived Risk in Mortgage Choice

We investigate how borrowers perceive the risk in the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) versus fixed rate mortgage (FRM) choice. We develop a mortgage choice model where the coefficient on the long‐term bond risk premium is conditional on the borrower's perceived risk. We show that the perceived risk fluctuates over time according to the short‐term interest rate level and housing market conditions. We find that when the short‐term rate level is high (low), the borrowers perceive low (high) risk of a short‐term rate rise, thus opting for ARMs (FRMs). Also, during a down housing market they become more risk‐averse perceiving higher risk in choosing ARMs. The perceived risk level alters the borrowers’ sensitivity to the long‐term bond risk premium.     

Interest rate trees: extensions and applications

This paper provides extensions to existing procedures for representing one-factor no-arbitrage models of the short rate in the form of a tree. It allows a wide range of drift functions for the short rate to be used in conjunction with a wide range of volatility assumptions. It shows that, if the market price of risk is a function only of the short rate and time, a single tree with two sets of probabilities on branches can be used to represent rate moves in both the real-world and risk-neutral world. Examples are given to illustrate how the extensions can provide modelling flexibility when interest rates are negative.     

Growth,expectations and tariffs

We present a growth model of international trade in which expectations about profitability and growth influence innovation and investment. Adaptive learning dynamics determine transition paths for countries with differing structural parameters. Countries limiting trade by tariffs on imports of capital goods can experience gains in growth and perceived utility for a finite time, whereas the rest of the world is adversely affected. Asymmetric gains persist longer when structural advantages of the country applying tariffs are larger. Substantial differences in levels of innovation, output and utility can appear within our asymmetric country setting.     

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE EFFECT OF FULL‐SCALE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE ADOPTIONS ON INVENTORY BALANCES AND TURNS

Supply chain management (SCM) software vendors, analysts, and others claim that firms implementing SCM software stand to benefit by being able to reduce inventory holdings and increase inventory turns. We theorize that full‐scale implementations lead to system‐wide inventory optimization, which in turn leads to cost improvement associated with inventory balances and turns. To examine the question, we develop an analytical model of inventory optimization, then analyze the effects of the model with a numerical experiment, and finally confirm the results with an empirical examination. We find that firm‐wide implementation is significant in explaining improvement in inventory metrics, relative to pre‐implementation metrics for our sample. Our empirical tests indicate that implementing SCM software across only a portion of the firm does not impact inventory metrics, but that the scale of implementation does. More precisely, we find that firms implementing SCM software across the entire company significantly improve both inventory turns and inventory as a percent of revenue relative to partially‐implementing firms and non‐implementers.     

Testing For Efficient Contracts In Unionized Labour Markets

This paper addresses the design of empirical tests to distinguish between two competing explanations of wage and employment determination in unionized labour markets, the labour-demand and efficient-contract models. We argue that most of the tests employed are restrictive, propose an alternative non-nested approach, a central feature of which is the variation in the set of instrumental variables across the models, and provide an illustration of how it might be implemented, using data from the Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (WIRS) 1984 Panel File. The results demonstrate how the traditional approach can lead to inappropriate conclusions, and thereby emphasize the empirical importance of the specification of the instrumental variables.     

专家谈澳洲金融市场为什么相对稳定

2009年1月，《国际融资》杂志记者在澳大利亚投资与金融服务协会（IFSA）悉尼办公室再次采访了该协会CEO Richard Gilbert先生。IFSA为了在澳洲与中国金融服务领域之间建立起一条紧密的纽带关系，积极探索两国金融业的合作和进一步增强现有合作关系的可能性。2008年9月，IFSA首次组织澳大利亚金融服务业CEO代表团前往中国香港和大陆访问，时任代表团团长的Richard Gilbert曾在那次访问期间接受了《国际融资》杂志记者的采访。     

New revisionists and the Keynesian era in British economic policy

This article surveys the literature, which has argued that post‐1945 British economic policy should not be described as Keynesian. It attempts to apply explicit definitions of ‘Keynesian', ‘influence', and ‘the Treasury view'. It suggests that in post‐1945 monetary and fiscal policies, in the treatment of the balance of payments, and in attitudes to public expenditure, strong Keynesian influences can be detected. The idea of a ‘Keynesian era' should not be rejected and it is hinted that the failure to accelerate the growth rate, rather than the external dimension, caused the Keynesian era to unravel.