On Education and Democratic Preferences

We make the point that preferences for democracy are positively correlated with level of education. This correlation is robust even after controlling for a range of personal characteristics, including country of residence, income, age, or using different definitions of preferences for democracy or using instrumental variables. Interestingly, the results hold across countries with different level of democracy. We use data from World Values Surveys and show that our results are consistent with a simple theoretical model in which education makes political accountability easier.     

Rational expectations equilibria of economies with local interactions

We consider general economies in which rational agents interact locally. The local aspect of the interactions is designed to represent in a simple abstract way social interactions, that is, socioeconomic environments in which markets do not mediate all of agents’ choices, which might be in part determined, for instance, by family, peer group, or ethnic group effects. We study static as well as dynamic infinite horizon economies; we allow for economies with incomplete information, and we consider jointly global and local interactions, to integrate e.g., global externalities and markets with peer and group effects. We provide conditions under which such economies have rational expectations equilibria. We illustrate the effects of local interactions when agents are rational by studying in detail the equilibrium properties of a simple economy with quadratic preferences which captures, in turn, local preferences for conformity, habit persistence, and preferences for status or adherence to aggregate norms of behavior.     

Will elders provide for their grandchildren? Unconditional cash transfers and educational expenditures in Bolivia

We take advantage of repeated cross‐sectional household surveys and a sharp discontinuity created by the introduction of an unconditional cash transfer to elders in Bolivia, to evaluate its impact on educational expenditures on children within a household. We find positive and significant impacts of the program at the aggregate level. We also find that the program has stronger effects on indigenous populations as well as on female and rural populations. Our results are robust to a series of falsification tests, survey structure, model specification, and estimation methods.     

Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area #

Productivity slowdown plays a prominent role in the build-up of the euro area crisis. This phenomenon affected member countries asymmetrically, causing divergence in their productivity trends. Recent research traces this divergence back to monetary integration. After reviewing the arguments that link real “disintegration” of the euro area to its monetary integration, we assess them empirically by modelling the evolution of labour productivity using a panel of sectorial data. The results indicate that monetary unification may actually have fostered divergence in productivity trends, and suggest some economic policy measures that could prevent further divergence.     

Deep trade agreements and vertical FDI: The devil is in the details

Although pre‐1990s preferential trade agreements focused mostly on tariff liberalization, recent agreements increasingly contain deep provisions in diverse areas, such as intellectual property rights, investment and standards. At the same time, there has been a remarkable increase in the internationalization of production through foreign direct investment and outsourcing. This paper studies how deep trade agreements affect the international organization of production. Using new measures of the depth and content of preferential trade agreements and of vertical foreign direct investment, the analysis finds evidence that the depth of trade agreements is correlated with vertical foreign direct investment. Furthermore, this relationship is driven by the provisions that improve the contractibility of inputs provided by suppliers, such as standards, while provisions that increase the contractibility of headquarter services, such as intellectual property rights and investment protection, are generally negatively correlated with foreign investment. This finding is consistent with the so‐called “property rights” theory of the multinational firm according to which improving the contractibility of an input reduces the importance of giving incentives through ownership.     

Political and Economic Inequities and the Shaping of Institutions and Redistribution

This article studies the joint effect of political and economic inequalities on redistributive taxation and institutional quality. The theoretical model suggests that income inequality, coupled with political bias in favor of the rich, decreases redistribution and lowers institutional quality. The effect of the former is to increase productive investment, and the effect of the latter is to decrease it—with resulting ambiguous implications for economic growth. Testing these predictions empirically in a panel of countries, we find that inequality has a negative effect on both institutional quality and redistribution.     

Economy-wide reform and agricultural recovery: Observations of economic Darwinism among transition economies

The fitness of an economy and its prospects for continued prosperity will be measured and determined by its robustness and its ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Some countries in transition are adapting much more easily than others to rapid changes in the orientation of their economy, the common objective of which is to achieve economic growth through the adoption of a range of characteristics generally associated with a market economy. Economic growth does not have to be very fast, but it must be efficient and sustainable. Policy adjustments must address political economy concerns, while seeking to achieve macroeconomic equilibrium and price stabilization, competitiveness, efficiency and flexibility, and the protection of the living standards of the most vulnerable population The process of agricultural sector reform will be determined both by economy-wide policies and sector-specific policies. This paper first outlines a taxonomy of the objectives of agricultural sector reform, and then discusses the way in which indirect price interventions (specifically exchange rate and interest rate policies, expansive fiscal policies and industrial protection policies), influence agricultural growth. Lessons of experience drawn from the UNDP/World Bank Trade Expansion Program structural and sectoral adjustment operations in Poland, and the cases of New Zealand and Chile are employed to illustrate not only the constraints that countries face in this regard, but also in identifying targets for further action. The third section presents what is called the architecture of incentives for agriculture'. In defining a strategy of agricultural sector reform, experience has shown that a structure of incentives can be developed that creates an environment ripe for agricultural growth-incentives relating, for example, to taxation, prices, foreign investment, privatization and demonopolization, decentralization and institutional reform. Special considerations that will require additional attention by policy-makers outside of this structure include the maintenance of GATT-legal principles in trade policies, issues relating to tariffication (including concerns about price risk management, food supply, and the role of food aid), input and credit subsidies as a means to correct for market failures, and the role of regional trading blocks in world trade.     

Exports,imports and growth: New evidence on Italy: 1863–2004

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out.     

Alcohol abuse among adolescents: regional evidence from Spain

The aim of this paper is to offer regional evidence from Spain on alcohol abuse among adolescents. Specifically, we identify the determinants of the decision to abuse alcohol with respect to the five most important regions of Spain, as well as for the country as a whole. To this end, we estimate Probit specifications using data drawn from the Spanish Surveys on Drug Use in the School Population corresponding to 1994, 1996 and 1998. The results first reveal patterns that are qualitatively similar, but quantitatively different. Similarly, it would appear that economic policies aimed at reducing the access of adolescents to alcohol may have a positive effect on reducing abuse. Finally, the results suggest that encouragement be given to healthy habits among young people, as well as to the fight against education failure and the launching of information campaigns that accurately portray the current lifestyle of adolescents.