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51.
We construct a model in which the ambiguity of candidates allows them to increase the number of voters to whom they appeal.
We focus our analysis on two points that are central to obtain ambiguity in equilibrium: restrictions on the beliefs that
candidates can induce in voters, and intensity of voters' preferences. The first is necessary for a pure strategy equilibrium
to exist, while the second is necessary for ambiguity in equilibrium when there exists a Condorcet winner in the set of pure
alternatives (e.g. the spatial model of electoral competition), and when candidates' only objective is to win the election.
In this last case, an ambiguous candidate may offer voters with different preferences the hope that their most preferred alternative
will be implemented. We also show that if there are sufficiently many candidates or parties, ambiguity will not be possible
in equilibrium, but a larger set of possible policies increases the chance that at least one candidate will choose to be ambiguous
in equilibrium.
We would like to thank Alberto Alesina, Antonio Cabrales, Steve Coate, Olivier Compte, Tim Feddersen, Itzhak Gilboa, Joe Harrington,
Michel Le Breton, Alessandro Lizzeri, George Mailath, Steve Matthews, Steve Morris, Ignacio Ortuno, Tom Palfrey, Larry Samuelson,
Murat Sertel, Fernando Vega, Eyal Winter and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial
support from DGICYT-PB 95-0983. This work was done while the first author was visiting the Center in Political Economy at
Washington University, and visiting the Center for Basic Research in the Social Sciences at Harvard University. Their hospitality
is gratefully acknowledged. The support of the second author's research by the National Science Foundation is also gratefully
acknowledged. 相似文献
52.
Alessandro Persona Alberto Regattieri Hoang Pham Daria Battini 《Journal of Operations Management》2007,25(6):1275
The paper analyzes the impact of e-business technologies on maintenance management and supply chain operations. The aim of this work is to investigate the network organization level of supply chains in case of remote maintenance application and to understand how maintenance policies are coupled with information technology (IT) solutions. To this purpose two literature reviews are presented: firstly, on the supply chain and network integration, and then on the evolution of maintenance using information technology. Following this, the paper present four specific industrial case-studies of eMRO network organisation. They have been chosen as reference models from a set of practical applications and pilot tests performed by the authors in different production sectors in the last 5 years. Technology complexity environments, maintenance outsourcing level, and supply chain integration context are discussed for each case-studies with particular regards to the profitable forms of collaboration provided by the introduction of IT and the Web. This analysis work toward the development of a framework useful to: (1) classify different e-maintenance systems and understand the relationships between the different members of the network, and (2) identify the variables which can influence the introduction and development of the systems. 相似文献
53.
This work draws on consumer and psychology research to explain sociocognitive aspects of product-market dynamics at a higher
level of specificity than prior research. The authors extend the field’s understanding of market-shaping shared knowledge
through a theory-informed discussion of how shared product knowledge comes to exist and how it changes as product markets
develop. They define shared knowledge as the aspects of product representations that are common across the minds of market
actors, making it possible for them to understand one another. The authors also discuss ways to track shared knowledge content
that is expressed in market narratives. As the characteristics of shared knowledge are explained and linked to stages of product-market
development, the authors develop a set of researchable propositions to guide future research. The theoretical arguments and
propositions in this article complement extant marketing strategy research by integrating individual-level consumer theory
with market evolution models.
José Antonio Rosa (jose.rosa@case.edu; Ph.D., University of Michigan) is an assistant professor of marketing at Case Western Reserve University.
His research interests include product markets as sociocognitive phenomena, embodied knowledge in consumer and managerial
sensemaking, consumer illiteracy and coping, commitment and motivation among members of network marketing organizations, and
buying group satisfaction. His research has been published in marketing and management publications, including theJournal of Marketing and theAcademy of Management Journal. Before entering academia, he worked in the automotive and information systems industries.
Jelena Spanjol (jspanjol@tamu.edu; Ph.D., University of Illinois) is an assistant professor of marketing at Texas A&M University. Her research
interests include product market dynamics, product portfolio management, innovation, sensemaking, and organizational and managerial
cognition in marketing strategy. Her research has been published in marketing and management publications, including theJournal of Marketing and several book chapters. Before academia, she worked in the scientific software industry. 相似文献
54.
Julie A. Ruth Frédéric F. Brunel Cele C. Otnes 《Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science》2002,30(1):44-58
While emotions have been shown to have significant influence on various consumer behaviors, the cognitive appraisals linked
to consumption emotions have not been fully explored. This research investigates how individuals' cognitive interpretations
of situations correspond to the emotions they experience in these contexts. Using analysis of variance and multiple discriminant
analysis, our results show a systematic relationship between cognitive appraisals and 10 consumption emotions. The author's
findings offer theoretical insights into these consumption emotions, the appraisal/consumption emotion correspondence, basisversus
subordinate-level category differences in emotions, and mixed consumption emotions. The findings provide a practical framework
for academics and practitioners interested in better understanding and managing consumption emotions.
Julie A. Ruth (Ph.D., University of Michigan) is an assistant professor of marketing in the School of Business—Camden at Rutgers University.
Her research interests include affect and emotions, consumer relationships, and consumer response to brand strategies such
as brand alliances and sponsorships.
Frédéric F. Brunel (Ph.D., University of Washington) is an assistant professor of marketing in the School of Management at Boston University.
His research interests include consumer perceptions of product design and aesthetics, consumer attitude and affect, and gender
and sociocultural issues in consumption.
Cele C. Otnes (Ph.D., University of Tennessee) is an associate professor of business administration in the College of Commerce and Business
Administration at the University of Illinois, Urbana. Her research interests include consumer rituals, affect and consumer
ambivalence, and gift exchange. 相似文献
55.
Philippe Mongrain Richard Nadeau Bruno Jérôme 《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(1):289-301
Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a number of democracies. Structural modeling, the major approach to forecasting election results, relies on ‘fundamental’ economic and political variables to predict the incumbent’s vote share usually a few months in advance. Some political scientists contend that adding vote intention polls to these models—i.e., synthesizing ‘fundamental’ variables and polling information—can lead to important accuracy gains. In this paper, we look at the efficiency of different model specifications in predicting the Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 2015. We find that vote intention polls only allow modest accuracy gains late in the campaign. With this backdrop in mind, we then use different model specifications to make ex ante forecasts of the 2019 federal election. Our findings have a number of important implications for the forecasting discipline in Canada as they address the benefits of combining polls and ‘fundamental’ variables to predict election results; the efficiency of varying lag structures; and the issue of translating votes into seats. 相似文献
56.
Anthony Bellotti Damiano Brigo Paolo Gambetti Frédéric Vrins 《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(1):428-444
We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential. 相似文献
57.
This paper presents a broad diagnostic of the level of institutional development in Portugal in the legal, corporate governance and financial systems. A comparative assessment suggests that Portuguese institutions are less developed than their European Union and East Asian counterparts, more developed than Greek institutions and on a level similar to that of Spanish institutions. We use data for a wide cross-section of countries since 1960 and correlate indicators of institutional development with the long-term average growth rate, identifying issues where reform is likely to significantly affect economic growth. We construct three new indices that measure the potential of institutional reform - the impact of reform on growth, the required reform effort and the efficiency of reform index - by taking into consideration the institutional distance between Portugal and the European Union. These indices measure, respectively, which reforms have the most payoff in terms of growth, which are less costly to undertake and which deliver the most growth per required effort. Our results strongly suggest that in a large number of issues, institutional reform may translate into substantially higher rates of economic growth. Of the ten most promising reforms, six are in the legal area, irrespective of which of the indices is considered. Whereas legal reform is promising at the aggregate and the microeconomic levels, in the financial sector aggregate indicators offer the wider scope for productive reform, while in the corporate governance area it is indices at the micro level that hold the most promise. These results support the view that a comprehensive reform effort is likely to deliver higher rates of growth in Portugal, allowing faster real convergence with the rest of the European Union.Received: January 2003, Accepted: February 2004, JEL Classification:
O0, O5, K00, K4, G2, G3This paper is based on Firms, Financial Markets and the Law: Institutions and Economic Growth in Portugal, prepared for the conference Desenvolvimento Económico Português no Espaço Europeu: Determinantes e Políticas, organized by the Banco de Portugal. Financial support by the Banco de Portugal, NOVA FORUM and FUNDAÇÃO Para a Ciência e tecnologia and Polti through feder are gratefully acknowledged. Comments from Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, two anonymous referees and the editor are sincerely appreciated. The usual disclaimer applies. 相似文献
58.
Alberto Ansuategi 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2003,26(2):305-328
The existing empirical evidence suggests that environmental Kuznets curvesonly exist for pollutants with semi-local and medium term impacts.Ansuategi and Perrings (2000) have considered the behavioral basis for thecorrelation observed between different spatial incidence of environmentaldegradation and the relation between economic growth and environmentalquality. They show that self-interested planners following a Nash-typestrategy tend to address environmental effects sequentially: addressingthose with the most immediate costs first, and those whose costs aredisplaced in space later. This paper tests such behavioral basis in thecontext of sulphur dioxide emissions in Europe. 相似文献
59.
Conchita Garcés Ayerbe Carmen Galve Górriz 《International Advances in Economic Research》2003,9(2):123-132
This study presents theoretical arguments and evidence that attempt to show the contribution of economic mechanisms typical
of a business for resolving problems of environmental protection. Firstly, a brief synopsis is given of the classic solutions
that environmental economics proposes for correcting environmental externalities. Next, the benefit of expanding these two
mechanisms is discussed so that they include those intermediate mechanisms for which it is not possible to clearly establish
if they are developed within the domain of the market or the business. The study's focus resides in the fact that the explicit
expansion of the range of solutions proposed from a macroeconomic point of view establishes a connecting point between environmental
economics and business economics, an area in which academic attention to environmental matters has been significantly less.
The present work forms part of research project SEC2002-00835, financed by MCYT-FEDER. 相似文献
60.
Anne-Sophie Crépin 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2003,26(4):625-646
Recent research in natural sciences shows that the dynamics in boreal forests are much more complex than what many models
traditionally used in forestry economics reflect. This essay analyzes some challenges of accounting for such complexity. It
shows that the optimal harvesting strategy for forest owners is history dependent and for some states of the forest, more
than one strategy may be optimal.This paper confirms earlier literature on shallow lakes and coral reefs and shows that this
kind of phenomena seem much more common than previously thought. They are valid for a wide range of ecosystems that cover
large surfaces and they do not depend on the choice of some specific function to model the non-linearity. There are also indications
that theses results could be obtained even for resources with concave growth if at least one species with non-linear growth
affects their dynamics. 相似文献