Entry‐Timing Advantages in Renewable Natural Resources Industries

In this paper, we explore the conditions of entry‐timing advantages in renewable natural resource industries. Drawing from behavioural theory of the firm, we classify firms in two groups depending on the different heuristics used to make entry decisions when facing the cyclical endogenous nature of these industries: crowd firms are procyclical, making decisions based on the current phase of the industry cycle, whereas anti‐crowd firms follow a countercyclical strategy, making uncertain, and risky decisions by estimation of the next phase of the cycle. Therefore, anti‐crowd firms anticipate the deployment of resources each cycle, potentially gaining entry‐timing advantages beyond those provided by traditional competitive isolating mechanisms. Through a mathematical simulation of a performance feedback model, we reveal that the entry‐timing advantage of the anti‐crowd group becomes possible when the rivalry in the industry and the price sensitivity of competitors are high, and when the time required to deploy the resources is short.     

Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

An agent-based model for the assessment of LTV caps

We assess the effects of regulatory caps in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for housing mortgages using an agent-based model. Sellers, buyers and banks interact within a computational framework that enables the application of LTV caps to a one-step housing market. We first conduct a simulation exercise; later, we calibrate the probability distributions based on actual European data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. In both cases, the application of an LTV cap results in a modified distribution of buyers in terms of property values, bidding prices and properties sold, depending on the probability distributions of the LTV ratio, wealth and debt-to-income ratios considered. The results are of similar magnitude to other studies in the literature embodying other analytical approaches, and they suggest that our methodology can potentially be used to gauge the impact of common macroprudential measures.     

Contratos de riesgo de petróleo,patrones de conducta y desempeño de empresas: Análisis de panel de datos

Using data from financial and economic performance of International Oil Companies (IOCs) in the exploration-extraction (E&E) business, along with institutional and market orientation of governments and National Oil Companies (NOCs) that receive project offers, the international E&E market is analyzed in both institutional development and behavioral patterns of type of E&E contract following an agency theory approach. Additionally, given Mexico's recent energy reform being launched between 2015 and next 2019, the various types of E&E contracts are analyzed, comparing license contracts with production sharing and risk service ones. Next, using panel data methods an analysis of 17 enterprises between 2005 and 2015 is presented, where so-called global IOCs show higher returns and commitment than specialized ones, demonstrated by their net income and return on equity, or ROE.     

The Impact of Bank Credit on Employment Formality: Evidence from Uruguay

This article examines the effect of bank credit on employment formalization in Uruguay. Using a difference-in-differences methodology the article finds that financial deepening decreases informality, especially in more financially dependent sectors. In addition, the effect is found to be greater among women and older workers. In the period under analysis the economy underwent a severe economic crisis and bank credit contracted sharply, but we find no evidence that the effect of bank credit on employment formality changed over time.     

Is There a Connection Between the Tax Administration and the Political Power?

This paper offers empirical evidence from Spain of a connection between the tax administration and the political power at the regional level. Firstly, the system of unconditional grants from the central layer of government provokes an “income effect” which disincentivises the efforts of the regional tax administration. Secondly, these efforts tend to be lower in those electoral districts where vote turnout is high, the margin to lose a parliamentary seat is narrow and their parliamentary representation is high, although the importance of these disincentives decreases according to the parliamentary strength of the incumbent. Finally, leftist governments, through the tax administration, tend to exert a greater effort in ensuring tax compliance.     

Modeling public transport corridors with aggregate and disaggregate demand

Microeconomic public transport models aimed at maximizing social benefits usually consider demand in an aggregate manner. In this paper we examine the effect of this approach on the optimal values of frequency and vehicle size by comparison with models where demand is described in detail as a matrix of flows between every station in a single line service. The theoretical analysis and the numerical examples suggest that the spatially aggregated model underestimates optimal frequency and overestimates vehicle size.     

International Technology Diffusion: Effects of Trade and FDI

There has been little analysis of the effect of inward FDI on international R&D diffusion, especially in LDCs, although FDI has become the core of international production and LDCs have been receiving an increasing share of world FDI over the past few decades. Using data from 57 countries from 1988 to 2001, we find that both FDI and trade serve as important channels of international technology diffusion. However, there exist heterogeneous effects of FDI in DCs and LDCs. For inward FDI to promote technology diffusion in LDCs, a certain threshold of human capital has to be reached.