Assessing Aggregate Structural Change

The aim of this paper is to investigate the evolution of Italian aggregate structural change over the years 1965–85. We use annual input–output (IO) tables in current and constant prices to derive an aggregate index of structural change. We adopt several techniques for such an explorative analysis. First, we borrow from qualitative matrix analysis and graph theory some basic concepts to assess direct and indirect links among sectors, and interrelatedness measures are derived in a straightforward way. However, qualitative analysis of indirect links may be flawed, since it can establish a path that is quantitatively negligible. Then, we turn our attention to a non-standard quantitative index derived from structural path analysis, expressed by a simple function of the input matrix determinant. Since empirical findings indicate a structural break in 1975, we derive another measure of technical change: the dominant eigenvalue. Such an index has several interesting properties but no clear relationship to the circularity process implicit in the Leontief model. Results for constant- and actual-price IO tables are discussed and compared with main macro-economic variables over the sample. Empirical findings indicate a relationship between investment, variability in final demand and aggregate structural change.     

Radical Intellectuals: What Happened to the New Urban Sociology?

This article is about the rise and fall of radicalism among ‘new urban sociologists’ during the 1960s and 1970s. First, I analyze the social and theoretical developments of that time and demonstrate the novelty of the questions that the new urban sociologists posed. Second, I examine the features of the practical engagements and motivations of the members of this group and show how they changed over time. Finally, I discuss the processes of institutionalization of this group. The story of the new urban sociologists is the story of members of the same generation who, dissatisfied with the development of theory in their field, developed a distinct approach to urban problems. The project that they developed combined elements of both intellectual and political projects. I consider both aspects of this project in light of Gouldner’s sociology of intellectuals, and show that de‐radicalization was a consequence of a peculiar combination of political disillusionment, theoretical triumph and a successful project of professionalization.     

Detecting Some Dynamic Properties of the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

Financial prices and returns have been the subject of empirical and theoretical analysis for many years, and their dynamic properties and other characteristics are still of interest. Many different tools have been applied to describe financial markets. The presented paper is addressed to examine the euro/dollar exchange rate and the related financial returns in the context of detecting exact and stochastic unit roots, and in the consequence, modelling them using time varying parameters model. The estimated STUR models are compared with standard ARMA-GARCH representations. We also examine causal relationships in the Granger sense. Upon the results of causality testing, some ADL-GARCH models are built, which are further used to examine their forecasting performance.     

Qualitative analysis of Bayes–Nash equilibrium in weak asymmetric auctions

It is now generally accepted that there is a negative relationship between inflation and central bank independence (CBI). This study finds that inflation and CBI are endogenously determined, yet the negative correlation between the two remains robust.