Congestion, Land Use, and Job Dispersion: A General Equilibrium Model

In dispersed cities, congestion tolls would drive up central wages and rents and would induce centrally located producers to want to disperse closer to their workers and their customers, paying lower rents and realizing productivity gains from land to labor substitution. But the tolls would also induce residents to want to locate more centrally in order to economize on commuting and shopping travel. In a computable general equilibrium model, we find that the centralizing effect of tolls on residences dominates on the decentralizing effect of tolls on firms, causing the dispersed city to have more centralized job and population densities. Under stylized parameters, we find that efficiency gains from levying congestion tolls on work and shopping travel are 3.0% of average income. About 80% of such gains come from road planning and 20% from tolls.     

Efficiency Considerations in Online Auction Markets

The main contention of this article is that online auction markets are amenable to efficiency considerations akin to traditional financial markets. While the underlying assets traded are dissimilar between the financial and online auction markets, the fundamental principles that drive these markets are consanguineous in that similar efficiency notions are applicable. Based on the principles of arbitrage, we develop a set of efficiency criteria to evaluate the auction activity of new and identically described items. Two arbitrage principles, seller arbitrage and buyer arbitrage, are developed. These principles can be employed to evaluate the price behavior of temporally proximate auctions and to generate a useful benchmark to make efficiency evaluations. We find evidence of inefficiency for each of the items we empirically tested based on the data from eBay, currently the largest online auction house.     

Australia's Carbon Tax: An Economic Evaluation

Australia's carbon tax has been in place since July 2012. Following the 2013 federal election and change of government, it is likely that the tax will be abolished. This paper evaluates Australia's carbon tax experience and draws lessons for policymakers in other jurisdictions who may be considering following the Australian example and implementing their own carbon taxes or cap and trade schemes. Overall, the policy was poorly thought through, badly implemented, and lacked majority public support before it began. Australia's carbon tax experience is an interesting case study in how not to go about implementing climate change policy.     

Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) has pointed out that the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. In this paper, we present a simulation optimization model to generate dynamic strategies for distribution of limited mitigation resources, such as vaccines and antivirals, over a network of regional outbreaks. The model has the capability to redistribute the resources remaining from previous allocations in response to changes in the pandemic progress. The model strives to minimize the impact of ongoing outbreaks and the expected impact of potential outbreaks, considering measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the societal and economic costs of lost productivity and medical services. The model is implemented on a simulated H5N1 outbreak involving four counties in the state of Florida, U.S. with over four million inhabitants. The performance of our strategy is compared to that of a myopic distribution strategy. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The methodology is intended to support public health policy on effective distribution of limited mitigation resources.     

Frailty models with applications to the study of infant deaths on birth timing in Ghana and Kenya

In hazard models, it is assumed that all heterogeneity is captured by a set of theoretically relevant covariates. In many applications however, there are ample reasons for unobserved heterogeneity due to omitted or unmeasured factors. If there is unmeasured frailty, the hazard will not only be a function of the covariates but also of the unmeasured frailty. This paper discusses the implications of unobserved heterogeneity on parameter estimates with application to the analysis of infant death on subsequent birth timing in Ghana and Kenya using DHS data. Using Lognormal Accelerated Failure Time models with and without frailty, we found that standard models that do not control for unobserved heterogeneity produced biased estimates by overstating the degree of positive dependence and underestimating the degree of negative dependence. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

An assessment of the Bank of Canada's term PRA facility

This paper empirically assesses the effectiveness of the Bank of Canada's term Purchase and Resale Agreement (PRA) facility in reducing funding pressures, as measured by the CDOR-OIS spread. It examines the behaviour of this spread around both term PRA announcement dates and term PRA operation dates, using an event-study methodology to control for developments in other money markets as well as proxies for Canadian banking sector credit risk. Overall, there is robust evidence that the term PRA announcements reduced bank funding costs at both 1-month and 3-month terms, whereas we find no evidence of an impact from term PRA operations.     

Prospects for food security in the 21st Century: with special emphasis on Africa

Food security for the world in 2025 is possible and probable if the right set of things are done, starting now. But the task will not be easy. It is both a technology and a political/economic challenge. The challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is even greater. While other regions improved per capita food availability over the last 30 years, Africa's availability declined. But food security is about more than supply. It is also about access which means income generating employment is critical. Meeting future requirements in Africa and the world will require sustainable intensification of complex production systems, appropriate national and international policies and continued investments in agricultural research. Without these conditions and increased employment intensive growth, prospects for the future are less bright.     

刘小东:时间的证据

今年早些时候,《纽约时报》艺术评论家罗伯塔?史密斯写了篇长文章,指出美国许多美术馆明显偏好后极少主义,是一种视野极端狭窄的表现。这篇极富争议性的文章敦促策展人提高思想独立性,跳出观念艺术一统天下的模式看作品。读完文章,我发现她说得很对,西方不少美术馆在决定哪些作品可以进入当代艺术圣殿上的确存在趣味专制。刘小东的作品就很能说明这个问题。我放下报纸开始想,自己是不是应该站出来向我的纽约同事们为刘小东的绘画、思考以及历史意义正名。于是便有了本文。     

Would a stock by any other ticker smell as sweet?

Some stocks have meaningful ticker symbols; for example, LUV (Southwest Airlines), MOO (United Stockyards), and GEEK (Internet America). Such tickers might be a useful signal of the company's creativity, a memorable marker that appeals to investors, or a warning that the company feels it must resort to gimmicks to attract investors. This paper investigates the performance of stocks with memorable ticker symbols during the years 1984–2005 and finds that, on average, their daily returns are higher than for the overall market.