Financial prediction with constrained tail risk

A new class of asymmetric loss functions derived from the least absolute deviations or least squares loss with a constraint on the mean of one tail of the residual error distribution, is introduced for analyzing financial data. Motivated by risk management principles, the primary intent is to provide “cautious” forecasts under uncertainty. The net effect on fitted models is to shape the residuals so that on average only a prespecified proportion of predictions tend to fall above or below a desired threshold. The loss functions are reformulated as objective functions in the context of parameter estimation for linear regression models, and it is demonstrated how optimization can be implemented via linear programming. The method is a competitor of quantile regression, but is more flexible and broader in scope. An application is illustrated on prediction of NDX and SPX index returns data, while controlling the magnitude of a fraction of worst losses.     

Long‐run price competition

We generalize the standard repeated‐games model of dynamic oligopolistic competition to allow for consumers who are long‐lived and forward looking. Each period leaves some residual demand to future periods and pricing in one period affects consumers' expectations about future prices. We analyze this setting for an indivisible durable good with price‐setting firms and overlapping cohorts of consumers. The model nests the repeated‐game model and the Coasian durable‐goods model as its two extreme cases. The analysis is mostly focused on constant‐price collusion but conditions for collusive recurrent sales are also identified.     

Mapping the university technology transfer process

Transfer of technologies from the universities to the private sector is increasingly regarded as playing a significant role in new business starts, growth of existing businesses, and new job creation. Further, there are monerous models describing the process of technology transfer. Some of the existing models represent this process as a linear progression of steps: from idea generation and technology development at the university, to patenting the technology and then establishing a university-private firm link through a formal search process. The process culminates in patent rights transfer. Other models describe technology transfer in terms of networking arrangements and emphasize not so much formal search as the role of long-term relationships between the two parties. Still other studies indicate that it is possible to combine the two approaches—formal search and informal networking arrangements—to ensure successful transfer.Business firms involved in transfer also may be classified into several groups. Transfer could occur between the university and an established firm, between the university and a recently created new venture, or transfer could result in the creation of a new company. Technology, for example, could be transferred to a large company that uses the transferred technology as a basis for just one of many product lines, or to a small firm that makes the transferred technology a cornerstone of its product strategy.Are there any differences among the transfer processes used when large or small firms are involved, or when technology is transferred to an existing company, or results in the creation of a new firm? To address these questions, we mapped the technology transfer processes of 23 different technologies developed at the University of Minnesota from 1983 to 1993.More than half of the technologies studied went to large companies and were used either to upgrade existing products or to extend existing product lines. In eight cases technologies were transferred to small firms. In three cases technologies were transferred to venture capital firms or intermediaries and had not been commercialized at the time the study was completed. In the rest of the cases new firms were created by the inventors/university scientists themselves and served as vehicles for marketing their inventions. None of the firms of the latter group have grown beyond a part-time employment opportunity for the inventors, and only one firm provided evidence that additional hiring would be necessary in the near future.Only four cases involved transfers of technologies that have been developed and patented by the university to firms that did not have any relationships with the university prior to the transfer. In these four cases the firms used some form of search strategy to find a needed technology. However, there is no evidence that any of the firms had a well-developed formal search procedure. In the overwhelming majority of cases some form of relationship existed between the university (or individual inventors) and the private firm prior to the transfer. These relationships ranged from long-term friendships and/or cooperation to such less involved forms as interaction at research seminars and university-sponsored events. Further, in four cases, the technologies were initially developed by private companies, whereas the university's role was to assist in refinement or testing of the technology.The research yielded a number of additional findings that deserve further investigation and discussion. Specifically, the study did not provide any evidence that the successfully completed technology transfers made any substantial contribution to either new business creation or the generation of new jobs. This finding suggests that scholars and policy makers should proceed with caution before accepting a notion that new or high technology firms will have any direct economic impact.The study findings hold specific implications for entrepreneurial behavior and public policy. The “formal search and shopping” for a technology model suggests that both business and academic/government laboratories publicize, respectively, their requirements and offerings, and that opportunities for creative brokerage ought to exist. We found that in the majority of cases technology was transferred not through formal search, but through some prior relationships among individuals. This observation suggests that the ability to build extended networks of relationships not only within the business world but also with the university community is an important skill that owners and managers of the technology-based businesses need to possess. Entrepreneurs seeking to start businesses based on new technologies may need to reevaluate how much of their limited time to allocate to build and maintain networks and cooperative relationships, and how much time to shop for new technologies through formal channels. Further, public policy and the efforts of the university transfer agencies intended to facilitate transfer may need to shift their emphasis from facilitating “shopping” by organizing and/or paying for “publicity” (which is currently the major emphasis) to providing assistance in network building and relationship marketing efforts.     

Portrayals of Minorities and Women in Super Bowl Advertising

Portrayals of women and minorities advertising have long been of interest to advertising scholars. While research has found that the overall representation of these groups has increased, some stereotypes persist, and so do questions about the quality and prominence of portrayals. This study examines portrayals of minorities and women in Super Bowl advertising, the main “pop culture” showcase for US advertising. A content analysis of 10 years of Super Bowl ads is conducted and a multinomial logit regression model is employed to delve deeper into the content analysis results. Findings show that while the overall representation of women and various minority groups is strong, a deeper analysis shows that these groups are seldom depicted as primary characters by themselves and that some subtle stereotypes persist. We also find that ads featuring female principal characters are more likely to feature home settings, sexual appeals, emotional messages, and music as a major element and that it is less likely for female (vs. male) celebrities to be used. Minority principal characters are more likely to be celebrities and be included in ads with music or for technical products but are less likely to be included in ads featuring corporate social responsibility messages.     

How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?

This paper investigates how firms should hedge price risk when payment dates are uncertain. We derive variance-minimizing strategies and show that the instrument choice is essential for this problem, similar to the choice between a strip and a stack hedge. The first setting concentrates on futures hedges, whereas the second allows for nonlinear derivatives. In both settings, firms should take positions in derivatives with different maturities simultaneously. We present an empirical analysis for commodities and exchange rates, showing that in both settings the optimal strategy clearly outperforms the commonly used heuristic strategies which consider only one hedging instrument at a time.     

Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: sometimes worse than the toss of a coin

Small Business Economics - The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices—from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method...     

Global Integration in Primary Equity Markets: The Role of U.S. Banks and U.S. Investors

We examine the costs and benefits of the global integrationof initial public offering (IPO) markets associated with thediffusion of U.S. underwriting methods in the 1990s. Bookbuildingis becoming increasingly popular outside the United States andtypically costs twice as much as a fixed-price offer. However,on its own, bookbuilding only leads to lower underpricing whenconducted by U.S. banks and/or targeted at U.S. investors. Formost issuers, the gains associated with lower underpricing outweighedthe additional costs associated with hiring U.S. banks or marketingin the United States. This suggests a quality/price trade-offcontrasting with the findings of Chen and Ritter, particularlysince non-U.S. issuers raising US$20 million–US$80 millionalso typically pay a 7% spread when U.S. banks and investorsare involved.     

Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach

We examine the economic implications arising from a bank using a VaR-constrained mean-variance model for the selection of its trading portfolio as a consequence of the Basle Capital Accord. Surprisingly, we show that when a VaR constraint is imposed, it is plausible that certain banks will end up selecting ‘riskier’ portfolios than they would have chosen in the absence of the constraint. Accordingly, regulators such as the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision should be aware that allowing a bank to use VaR to determine its minimum regulatory capital may increase its fragility. Alternatives to VaR-based bank capital regulation that mitigate or even preclude its perverse implications are presented.     

The value of a flow-through entity in an integrated corporate tax system

In an integrated corporate tax system, resident shareholders receive a tax credit for corporate tax paid that can be used to offset personal tax on dividend income. Nonresident and tax-exempt (pension plan) investors cannot use the tax credit on corporate dividends and thus prefer to invest in flow-through entities. We estimate the value of the flow-through entity to nonresident and pension plan investors by examining the price change around the date of an unexpected announcement of a change in tax law related to Canadian publicly traded income trusts units creating an entity-level tax that makes them no longer tax-favored to these investors.