New guidelines from the National Cholesterol Education Program: what is the impact on risk assessment?

The National Cholesterol Education Program has developed a set of guidelines for optimal levels of serum lipids that are recommended to reduce the risk of coronary artery disease. This article compares those values to lipid levels found in insurance applicants.     

Comparative and qualitative robustness for law-invariant risk measures

When estimating the risk of a P&L from historical data or Monte Carlo simulation, the robustness of the estimate is important. We argue here that Hampel’s classical notion of qualitative robustness is not suitable for risk measurement, and we propose and analyze a refined notion of robustness that applies to tail-dependent law-invariant convex risk measures on Orlicz spaces. This concept captures the tradeoff between robustness and sensitivity and can be quantified by an index of qualitative robustness. By means of this index, we can compare various risk measures, such as distortion risk measures, in regard to their degree of robustness. Our analysis also yields results of independent interest such as continuity properties and consistency of estimators for risk measures, or a Skorohod representation theorem for ψ-weak convergence.     

University‐industry collaboration and front‐end success: the moderating effects of innovativeness and parallel cross‐firm collaboration

Collaboration with science‐based and/or market‐based partners is a promising means for firms’ R&D groups to leverage complementary expertise and resources to generate innovative results. However, R&D managers face the dilemma which partner type to choose in different innovative contexts and whether to focus on one partner type or to integrate both types in early stage R&D. Using survey data from 166 heads of R&D groups, this study investigates university–industry collaboration’s impact on front‐end success depending on the degree of innovativeness and the interaction with other industry partners. The results confirm an overall positive relationship between university–industry collaboration and front‐end success. However, innovativeness increases complexity in this relationship. Parallel collaboration with firms and universities can have a mixed impact on front‐end success depending on the degree of innovativeness. This simultaneous collaboration with firms and universities strengthens front‐end success for more radical innovations, while parallel collaboration activities for more incremental innovations do not necessarily strengthen front‐end success. These findings imply that both collaboration types should be used simultaneously in the front end of radical innovation and that firms could reduce complexity by focusing on either firms or universities as partners for incremental innovations.     

Planting Decisions and Uncertain Consumer Acceptance of Genetically Modified Crop Varieties

There exists much uncertainty about consumer attitudes toward genetically modified foods. If it happens that sufficient (insufficient) acres are planted under nonmodified seed to meet postharvest demand, then a price premium will not (will) emerge for the nonmodified varieties. A nonlinearity originates in the fact that a price premium may not be supported. This nonlinearity interacts with demand uncertainty to determine equilibrium plantings and the probability that postharvest varietal prices differ. Also, as planting approaches signals will be broadcast about the nature of postharvest demand. We show how the nonlinearity affects the types of signals that growers will prefer to receive.     

Effects of Farm Size on Technical Efficiency in China's Broiler Sector: A Stochastic Meta‐Frontier Approach

This paper employs the stochastic meta‐frontier approach to measure technical efficiency and to investigate the effects of farm size on the technical efficiency in China's broiler sector. Empirical results show a positive association between farm size and technical efficiency in China's broiler sector. The medium and large farm sizes exhibit increases of 0.058 and 0.160, respectively, in technical efficiency scores, relative to small farms, which have a mean technical efficiency score of 0.722. Results indicate that there are significant differences in technical efficiency across regions. Technical efficiency in the southern region, which is dominated by yellow‐feathered broilers, is significantly lower than that in the northern region where white‐feathered broilers are the dominant species. Also, the technical efficiency scores estimated from the meta‐frontier model vary substantially across farm sizes in the southern region. Increased farm size improves the technical efficiency for yellow‐feathered broiler production. Dans la présente étude, nous avons utilisé l'analyse métafrontière stochastique pour mesurer l'efficience technique et pour déterminer les effets de la taille de la ferme sur l'efficience technique du secteur du poulet à griller en Chine. Les résultats empiriques indiquent qu'il existe un lien positif entre la taille de la ferme et l'efficience technique. Les fermes de moyenne et grande taille affichent une augmentation du pointage d'efficience technique de 0,058 et de 0,160 respectivement, comparativement aux fermes de petite taille dont le pointage d'efficience technique moyen est de 0,722. Les résultats indiquent que l'efficience technique varie considérablement d'une région à l'autre. L'efficience technique dans la région du Sud, où l’élevage du poulet à griller blanc domine, est significativement plus faible que celle de la région du Nord, où l’élevage du poulet à griller jaune domine. De plus, les pointages d'efficience technique estimés à partir du modèle de métafrontière varient considérablement dans la région du Sud. L'augmentation de la taille de la ferme améliore l'efficience technique de la production du poulet à griller jaune.     

Structural default model with mutual obligations

In this paper we consider mutual obligations in an interconnected bank system and analyze their impact on the joint and marginal survival probabilities for individual banks. We also calculate prices of the corresponding credit default swaps and first-to-default swaps. To make the role of mutual obligations more transparent, we develop a simple structural default model with banks’ assets driven by correlated multidimensional Brownian motion with drift. We calculate closed form expressions for many quantities of interest and use them for the efficient model calibration. We demonstrate that mutual obligations have noticeable impact on the system behavior.     

Reputational contagion and optimal regulatory forbearance

Existing studies suggest that systemic crises may arise because banks either hold correlated assets, or are connected by interbank lending. This paper shows that common regulation is also a conduit for interbank contagion. One bank's failure may undermine confidence in the banking regulator's competence, and, hence, in other banks chartered by the same regulator. As a result, depositors withdraw funds from otherwise unconnected banks. The optimal regulatory response to this behavior can be privately to exhibit forbearance to a failing bank. We show that regulatory transparency improves confidence ex ante but impedes regulators' ability to stem panics ex post.     

Beyond the grumpy rich man and the happy peasant: mixed methods and the impact of food security on subjective dimensions of wellbeing in India

This paper responds to the recent advocacy of subjective wellbeing in policy evaluation with an investigation of food security in rural Chhattisgarh, India, in 2010–2013. Conceptually, it suggests the need to move beyond a primary focus on happiness to consider a broader-based investigation into people’s subjective perceptions. In particular, it introduces a multi-domain model with some affinities to the capability approach, which asks what people think and feel themselves able to be and do. Methodologically, it suggests that the primary reliance on quantitative measures should be complemented by more qualitative approaches to give a more rounded appreciation of how people view their lives. Three approaches are presented: qualitative analysis of interview text; statistical analysis comparing a single measure of happiness with a broader, domain-based approach; and mixed qualitative and quantitative data generated from an individual case.     

Regional interdependence and forest “transitions”: Substitute deforestation limits the relevance of local reversals

Using case studies and concepts we suggest that constraints upon aggregate or global forest transition are significantly more severe than those upon local forest reversals. The basic reason is that one region's reversal can be facilitated by other regions that supply resources and goods, reducing the demands upon the region where forests rise. Many past forest reversals involve such interdependence. For ‘facilitating regions’ also to rise in forest requires other changes, since they will not be receiving such help. We start by discussing forest-transitions analysis within the context of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKCs), for a useful typology of possible shifts underlying transitions. We then consider the historical Northeast US where a regional reversal was dramatic and impressive. Yet this depended upon agricultural price shocks, due to the Midwest US supplying food, and also upon the availability of timber from other US regions. Next we consider deforestation in Amazônia, whose history (like the Northeast US) suggests a potential local role for urbanization, i.e. spatial concentration of population. Yet inter-regional issues again are crucial. For cattle and soy, expansion of global demands may give to Amazonia a role more like the Midwest than the Northeast US. In addition, across-region interdependencies will help determine where reversal and facilitation occur. Finally we discuss the constraints upon very broad forest transition.