Inflation and output dynamics in a model with labor market search and capital accumulation

In a sticky-price model with labor market search and habit persistence, Walsh (2005) shows that inertia in the interest rate policy helps to reconcile the inflation and output persistence with empirical observations for the US economy. We show that this finding is sensitive with regard to the introduction of capital formation. While we are able to replicate the findings for the inflation inertia in a model with capital adjustment costs and variable capacity utilization, the output response to an interest shock is found to be too large and no longer hump-shaped in this case. In addition we find that the response of output to a technology shock can only be reconciled with empirical findings if either the adjustment of the utilization rate is very costly or there is only a modest amount of nominal rigidity in the economy.     

Industry aspects of takeovers and divestitures: Evidence from the UK

This paper examines takeover and divestiture activity at the industry level for the population of UK firms over the period 1986–2000. Consistent with US research, takeovers in the UK cluster both across industries and over time. The evidence for divestitures indicates clustering across industries only. The paper further investigates whether broad and specific industry shocks (e.g., growth, free cash flow, concentration, deregulation, foreign competition, technology, stock market performance) explain takeover and divestiture clustering at the industry level. The results suggest that broad shocks increase (decrease) the likelihood of takeovers (divestitures), although not significantly for takeovers. Specific industry shocks that increase the likelihood of takeover activity include low growth, the threat of foreign competition and high stock market performance. For divestitures, high industry concentration and deregulation increase activity. Little evidence is found for deregulation as a significant factor in explaining takeover activity.     

The predictive ability of a risk-adjusted yield spread for economic activity in Europe

This paper examines whether the pricing of risk is important for macroeconomic activity at the country level. We design a risk-adjusted yield spread and test its predictive content for economic activity on the periphery and the centre of Europe over the 1990–2012 period. This risk-adjusted bond yield spread is defined in a cross-country context and referred to as the GZ-type spread. Increases in the yield on corporate bonds issued in the countries on the periphery relative to the riskless yield (calculated using German zero-coupon term structure data) reflect increases in the risk premium that the financial market imposes on borrowers. The risk premium rises in all countries during European-wide recessions of the recent past, particularly those associated with the Global Financial and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Our findings indicate further that this GZ-type spread acts as a reliable signal for imminent and near-term economic activity in countries where financial markets were shaken to their foundations during the Crisis period. For Germany, the GZ-spread has predictive content for industrial production but not for the unemployment rate. For GDP its predictive ability is confined to the EMU period.     

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth.     

Erfolgreiche Sanierung in der Insolvenz aus Sicht des Schuldnerunternehmens

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag stellt die M?glichkeiten eines geplanten und gesteuerten Einsatzes des Insolvenzverfahrens zur Sanierung Not leidender Unternehmen dar. Aufbauend auf den Erkenntnissen der Krisentheorie sowie einer ?konomischen Analyse des Insolvenzrechts eignen sich aus Sicht eines schuldnerischen Unternehmens vor allem das Insolvenzplanverfahren auf Basis eines Antrags wegen drohender Zahlungsunf?higkeit in Verbindung mit einem Antrag auf Eigenverwaltung zur Sanierung in der Insolvenz. Der Erfolg der gerichtlichen Sanierung h?ngt dabei ma?geblich von einem effizienten Vorgehen unter Beachtung des aus Sicht der Anteilseigner optimalen Insolvenzzeitpunkts, der Bewertung der Insolvenzeignung des zu sanierenden Unternehmens und der Entscheidung über die Verwertungsart ab.

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Summary This paper addresses the options of systematically managed insolvency proceedings to reorganise nonperforming firms. Crisis theory and an economic analysis of insolvency law suggest an “Insolvenzplanverfahren” based on a motion because of imminent insolvency in conjunction with requesting a debtor in possession solution is the best option for an indebted company. The success of a juristictional reorganisation depends on the optimal time to file for insolvency, a preselection of companies based on the appropriateness for a juristictional reorganisation, and the decision on asset utilisation.

     

Compliance Costs of Corporate Income Taxation in Singapore

This study is the second in a series of studies investigating tax compliance costs incurred by public-listed companies. We found evidence of a size effect which is a predominant finding of similar studies. The size effect was more pronounced when absolute measures of costs were used than when a relative measure, cost/sales turnover, was used. Additional evidence was found of limited success relating to the IRAS's moves to simplify the tax system. Specifically, only large companies with sales turnover exceeding $500m benefited and considerably reduced their overall compliance costs. Most of the decrease was a result of the computational component of compliance costs. This resulted in the gap in absolute costs narrowing between Group 3 and any of the other categories of companies. There was also greater reliance on external professionals, the smaller the company. Views elicited indicate that more could be done to increase accessibility to IRAS publications for Group 1 and Group 2 companies.     

R&D and market structure: The impact of measurement and aggregation problems

Estimates on the relationship between concentration and R&D effort are shown to be sensitive to problems of aggregation and of adequate measurement of R&D in small firms. While estimates from the official R&D survey of the Netherlands show a highly significant linear relationship between concentration and R&D, comparable estimates from our R&D data base prove it to be insignificant. However, at a finer level of disaggregation and when our sample is split into sectors with low and high technological opportunities, we discover evidence of a quadratic relationship in the latter and evidence of a weak linear relationship in the former.