The sensitivity of bank stock returns to real estate

According to the Federal Reserve Board, banking firms have recently been shifting significantly larger portions of their loan portfolios into real estate. This increase in real estate lending has caused concern about the continuing economic health of banks on the part of state and federal regulators, since changes in real estate returns, evidenced by changes in property value, can potentially have a significant impact on bank default risk and profit-ability. However, concerned parties do not seem to have explicitly considered the relationship between mortgage default risk and the specific characteristics of real estate investments.This study examines the sensitivities of stock returns for different bank groups, based on the percentage of total loans in real estate and the percentage of loans in five different mortgage categories (construction and development loans, farmland loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multifamily residential loans, and nonresidential and nonfarm loans), to changes in real estate market returns. This is done by developing and using a three-index model.The results of this study indicate that bank stocks, overall, are very sensitive to changes in real estae returns. Banks, with a larger portion of their total loans invested in all types of real estate loans, except farmland loans, are most sensitive to changes in real estate returns.     

Transactions-Driven Commercial Real Estate Returns: The Panacea to Asset Allocation Models?

A transactions-driven commercial real estate return series is generated in this study to determine whether the reliance on appraised values in the estimation of real estate returns is the source of the reported underpricing of real estate relative to stocks, bonds, and bills when analyzed in a traditional mean-variance setting. The reported underpricing of commercial real estate would be rational if transactions-driven returns exhibit more variance than appraisal-driven returns. While we find that transactions-driven real estate returns have greater variance than appraisal-driven returns for individual properties, most of the individual property risk is idiosyncratic and diversified away at the portfolio level. Real estate continues to be a dominate asset class in mean-variance allocation models even when represented with transactions-driven indices.¹     

TRADE UNIONS AND THE DISPERSION OF EARNINGS IN BRITISH ESTABLISHMENTS, 1980–90†

ABSTRACT The relationship between unions and earnings dispersion is examined using establishment-level data from the 1980, 1984 and 1990 Workplace Industrial Relations Surveys. Initially the cross-sectional relationship is examined using the 1990 data. The earnings dispersion of skilled and semiskilled workers is seen to be lower across unionized establishments than across non-union establishments; secondly, within-establishment earnings dispersion is lower in plants which recognize trade unions for collective bargaining purposes than in those that do not. All three surveys are then utilized to ascertain to what extent the decline in unionization in Britain has contributed to the rise in earnings inequality of semi-skilled workers. There was a sizeable and important widening of the gap in the dispersion of earnings across union and non-union plants between 1980 and 1990. For semi-skilled earnings, the decline in the share of plants with recognized unions can account for 11-17 percent of the rise in earnings inequality over this time period. The importance of falling union activity (as measured by union recognition) seemed to accelerate through the 1980s. Between 1980 and 1984 the relatively small falls in aggregate recognition explain less than 10 percent of the inequality increase, whereas between 1984 and 1990 about one-quarter of the increase can be accounted for by the fall in unionization. The majority of the rise in earnings inequality is, however, due to a large increase in earnings dispersion across non-union establishments.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF PREFERRED STOCK FINANCING BY BANK AND NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

We investigate the shareholder wealth effects of announcements of preferred stock issues made by financial institutions. Fixed-rate straight preferred stock and convertible preferred stock issue announcements result in insignificant common share price responses. However, the average stock price reaction to announcements of adjustable-rate preferred stock issues is positive and significant for banking firms. Our findings suggest that banks' common shareholders react positively to adjustable-rate preferred stock issue announcements because such securities provide a relatively low-cost way of increasing the primary capital used to satisfy legal minimum capital requirements without diluting common equity voting rights.     

The Effect of Alternative Return Measures on Restricted Mixed-Asset Portfolios

A restricted portfolio is constructed which includes NYSE common stocks, corporate bonds, government bonds, small capitalization common stocks, residential real estate and farmland and returns for each of four different tax brackets (0%, 15%, 30%, 45%). Next, three alternative measures of rates of return for residential real estate and farmland are used. Finally, since some researchers believe that standard risk measures (variance and standard deviation) do not capture the total risk in real estate, the risk for the real estate returns is increased five times while the returns are held constant. The twenty–four optimal portfolios (four tax brackets with two measures of risk and three measure of return for residential real estate and farmland) are then derived. These results are then compared and contrasted to each other to ascertain the change in sensitivity of the optimal portfolios due to different tax rates, different rates–of–return estimates and different risk estimates.     

Default risk in a model of corporate and government finance

A simple framework is proposed to analyse the interaction of corporate and government financial decisions. Default on corporate and household debt plays a central role having implications for the truth of both the Modigliani–Miller and Ricardian equivalence propositions. The novelty of the analysis is that the general equilibrium of the model reflects the interaction of three distinct groups of households. We show how, in the presence of default-risk bond financed transfers affect consumption opportunities across states of nature and affect private capital formation. The affects differ depending on whether the Modigliani–Miller proposition is true or false.     

Motivating Blue-Collar Employees: A Case Study of the Chinese Workforce

The Katz and Kahn (1978) Katz, R. and Kahn, D. 1978. The social psychology of organisations, 2nd, Toronto, , Canada: John Wiley &; Sons.  [Google Scholar] motivational framework is an open system management theory that underscores the importance of self-regulation while stressing the significance of using continuous feedback to adapt in a rapidly changing environment. This study aims to examine Katz and Kahn's prepositions that the implementation of a system of rule compliance, external rewards, and internalized motivation can decrease employee turnover, increase quantitative and qualitative standards of performance, and enhance cooperation and creativeness. The results among 233 Chinese employees (96.6% response rate) indicated partial support for Katz and Kahn's motivational framework. The implication for improving the Chinese workforce, in particular blue-collar occupations, is discussed.