Heterogeneity of farm loan packaging term decisions: a finite mixture approach

This article revisits the minority borrowers’ discrimination issue in farm lending by departing from traditional loan approval-rejection or default rate-based analytical models to focus on loan packaging decisions. This study analyses such decisions using a Finite Mixture Model that optimally separates the borrowers into two sub-classes allowing for a priori unspecified heterogeneity in borrowers’ data, which has not been accounted for in previous loan discrimination analyses. Results show that non-white farm borrowers tend to receive larger loans among those in the lower loan latent class, but receive relatively lower loans in the larger loans borrower category. These farmers are also charged higher interest rates vis-à-vis their peers in both the low and high interest rate latent classes. This study’s results also indicate that male borrowers are accommodated with larger loans and longer maturities in all loan amount and maturity latent classes. This study validates the interplay among significant trends in loan packaging terms for racial and gender minority borrowers that seems logical from the lenders’ credit risk management perspective.     

世界LPG市场分析及预测

1985－2000年，世界LPG（液化石油气）需求迅速增长，2000年，苏伊士运河以东地区从长期的净出口地区变为净进口，而且这种状况将持续到2005年，预计到2005年，亚洲LPG总需求量将达到近7000万吨，亚洲将超过北美，成为LPG需求量最大的地区。随着亚洲地区LPG需求的增加和中东地区出口的减少，西非和阿尔及利亚LPG供应量的增加将弥补亚洲地区的供应短缺。从LPG的终端消费变化来看，民用方面增长量大的地区将是印度和中国，化工需求的增长主要出现在中东和西欧，而而受环保因素的强大推动，汽车燃料对LPG的利用将在中东、非洲、原苏联和东欧地区以年均6％以上的速度增长。据估计，到2005年，世界LPG需求将接近2．37亿吨，而总产量为2．37亿吨，供需基本平衡。     

Developing Decentralized Capacity for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons for Agricultural Development from Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring in Malawi*

Abstract: Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa has been suggested frequently as a major factor determining the appropriateness of development policy interventions. This paper documents an approach implemented in Malawi for the past three years to develop decentralized capacity to analyze development policies and programs. A conceptual framework for identifying the areas of capacity strengthening in development policy analysis is developed. Generalizable lessons from Malawi's experience in decentralized capacity strengthening arc presented. Various issues that relate to enhancing the efficiency of capacity building programmes in sub-Saharan African are addressed. It is argued that continuous dialogue between development researchers and policy decisionmakers and between the trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies is fundamental for achieving the goals of improved capacity for development policy analysis. Résumé: On avance souvent que l'absence de capacité d'analyse suffisante dans la plupart des pays en développcment d'Afrique subsaharienne constitue l'un des facteurs qui conditionne l'opportunité des interventions en matière de politique de développement. Ce document présente unc approche mise en ocuvre au Malawi au cours des trois dernières années en vuc de développer la capacité décentralisée à analyser les politiques et programmes de développement. Il met au point un cadre conceptuel pour l'identification des domaines nécessitant un appui institutionnel au niveau de 1'analysc des politiques de développement. Des leçons susceptibles d'être généralisées sont tirées de l'expérience du Malawi en matière de renforcement de la capacité décentralisée. Diverses questions ayant trait à l'amélioration de l'efficacité des programmes de renforcement des capacités en Afrique subsaharienne sont abordées. Il est avancé que le dialogue permanent entre chercheurs s'intéressant au développcment et décideurs, et entre formateurs des institutions académiques et organismes d'aide est essentielle pour atteindrc l'objectif d'amélioration de la capacité d'analyse des politiques de développement.     

Opening prices on the New York Stock Exchange

The prices of opening transactions on the New York Stock Exchange are determined quite differently from prices of subsequent transactions. This paper tests the null hypothesis that opening prices are as representative of contemporaneous equilibrium stock values as subsequent intra-day transactions prices. With one possible exception, there is no basis for rejecting this hypothesis, despite the very different trading mechanisms used in opening trades and intra-day trades.     

A New Utility‐Consistent Econometric Approach to Multivariate Count Data Modeling

In the current paper, we propose a new utility‐consistent modeling framework to explicitly link a count data model with an event‐type multinomial‐choice model. The proposed framework uses a multinomial probit kernel for the event‐type choice model and introduces unobserved heterogeneity in both the count and discrete‐choice components. Additionally, this paper establishes important new results regarding the distribution of the maximum of multivariate normally distributed variables, which form the basis to embed the multinomial probit model within a joint modeling system for multivariate count data. The model is applied to analyzing out‐of‐home non‐work episodes pursued by workers, using data from the National Household Travel Survey. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Country-specific equity market characteristics and foreign equity portfolio allocation

Do country-specific equity market characteristics explain variations in foreign equity portfolio allocation? We study this question using comprehensive foreign equity portfolio holdings data and different measures of country-specific equity market factors for 36 host countries. Employing panel data econometric estimations, our investigation shows that foreign investors prefer to invest more in larger and highly visible developed markets which are more liquid, exhibit a higher degree of market efficiency and have lower trading costs. The findings imply that by improving the preconditions necessary for well-functioning capital markets, policymakers should be able to attract higher levels of foreign equity portfolio investments.     

An Investigation of Stock Price Declines Following Corporate Financing Events: Further Evidence

Prior research documents a large downward drift in stock prices following issuances of debt and equity by US firms. We conduct tests based on both stock price and trading volume to provide evidence on the reasons for this apparent market anomaly. We document evidence of earnings management through accruals prior to external financing and lower operating performance afterward that is associated with the amount of capital raised. The earnings management that precedes external financing and the amount of capital raised are associated with both the post-financing decline in stock price and trading volume around earnings announcements that follow for a period of three years. This evidence is consistent with the proposition that firms raise external capital prior to predictable declines in their operating performance and they release upward biased earnings before these events to manage investor expectations. The failure of many investors to incorporate this information into their trading decisions in a timely manner consistent with limited attention and over-confidence appears to drive stock mispricing. Our evidence does not support the conjecture that the financing anomaly is primarily a statistical artifact or that it is a manifestation of the accrual anomaly.