Technology evaluation in Taiwan's technology industries: Strategies, trajectories, and innovations

Technology evaluation, as an organizational process, is the essential ability to comprehend the values of technologies very soon after they emerge. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation process is inevitably influenced by the firm's industrial context, such as its technological trajectory. This study defines technology evaluation strategy in terms of the processes, methods, and participants involved, and uses this definition as a taxonomy to explore different types of technology evaluation strategies. A survey on the technological industries is conducted to explore types of technology evaluation strategies and their relationships with the advantages of different types of innovation under the effects of different technological trajectories. The survey identifies four types of technology evaluation strategies, namely, those of the flexible executive strategist, the emergent executive intuitionist, the deliberate quantitative strategist, and the deliberate consensual strategist, are identified. This study has found that certain types of technology evaluation strategies have better innovation performances than the others. The patterns of technological trajectories are also found to influence a firm's technology evaluation strategy and the advantages of certain types of innovations. The established explanations of the relationships among the technological trajectory, innovation type, and technology evaluation strategies may guide technology businesses to develop a better technology evaluation capability. The theoretical framework developed in this research enriches the strategic management literature with a new taxonomy for technology evaluation strategies.     

Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.     

The competition and equilibrium analysis of LCD TV and PDP TV

This study has investigated the dynamic competitive relationship between PDP TVs and LCD TVs by means of their quarterly shipments. The renowned Lotka-Volterra competition diffusion model has been adopted to conduct the empirical analysis with the Lyapunov function to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis, and estimate the domain of attraction which describes the trend and phenomenon of TV shipments. The results illustrate that there is good fitting performance while adopting this model. The competitive relationship can be viewed from the perspective that the LCD TV is the prey while the PDP TV is the predator. The possibility, nevertheless, for dropping the price of LCD TVs is an advantage of the attractiveness of the product which can be noted in higher growth rate than PDP TVs. With respect to the equilibrium stability analysis and estimated domain of attraction, 40- to 49-inch PDP TVs will not disappear from the market, but will generate a stable equilibrium with LCD TVs and sales volume presents simultaneous increase or decrease. In the supply and demand analysis, LCD TVs present a surplus of supply from 2008; therefore, how to conduct appropriate inventory management will be an emerging issue.     

A heuristic procedure to identify the most valuable chain of patent priority network

In this study, we provide support for the argument that patents are at their maximum value at those times when they are under litigation. We develop a heuristic procedure to determine the way in which such patents under litigation form a network of patent family members, and then go on to examine the priority patents involved. We subsequently attempt to develop a simple procedure to further identify both the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains within our proposed patent priority network. We suggest that the ‘critical’ and ‘significant’ chains that are created within the above network provide companies with important information which will ultimately provide them with valuable support for the subsequent decision of their patent portfolio strategies.     

A framework for mapping industrial emergence

The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full lifecycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Roadmapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.     

The interaction effect of strategic orientations on new product performance in the high-tech industry: A nonlinear model

Innovation and market orientation are two strategic orientations or business philosophies that can guide a company in its business activities. Although the interaction effect of these two strategic orientations is conceptually recognized as a critical factor for new product's success, empirical results are mixed. This paper examines this issue in terms of innovation orientation, two types of market orientations (responsive and proactive), and new product performance. Based on a sample of 107 high-tech firms, the results of this study show that the interaction between innovation orientation and two types of market orientation yields different patterns of nonlinear responses for new product performance. Specifically, new product performance, when derived from the interaction between innovation orientation and responsive market orientation, is in the form of an inverted U, i.e., the interaction effect is contributory to firm performance until an optimal level is reached, and then the effect becomes detrimental thereafter. However, new product performance derived from innovation orientation and proactive market orientation is in the form of a U, i.e., the interaction effect is detrimental to firm performance until a threshold level is reached and then the effect becomes contributory thereafter. The different patterns of new product performance indicate that the costs and organizational learning effects of these two strategic orientation interactions are dissimilar. The paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

Managing TFT-LCDs under uncertainty: When crystal cycles meet business cycles

Understanding the correlation between the crystal cycle and the business cycle is important, because it can help managers to anticipate change, reduce environmental uncertainty, and formulate operational objectives. To this end, we focused on China and the U.S. in our analysis. We found that the economic indicators that were the most relevant in the characterization of China's huge and burgeoning TFT-LCD market are gross domestic production and industrial production. We complemented this finding by conducting similar analyses in the U.S. market using a more comprehensive list of economic indicators.     

A grey decision and prediction model for investment in the core competitiveness of product development

Because enterprises do not disclose their internal specific cost information to the public and, moreover, every firm has its own product character and financial constitutions, it is difficult to offer fixed guidelines for investment decisions. Thus, an enterprise may be uncertain when required to choose the most promising set of possible investments.The goal of this research is to use a grey relation analysis and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to probe the core product development and competitiveness of an enterprise from limited data and, furthermore, by constructing the grey model, GM(1,1), to validate the feasibility of this assessment of the core competitiveness and investment strategy. In this study, a precision mechanical manufacturer is taken as an example, and the forecast estimate from this method is compared to those of a linear regression and the actual values to demonstrate the feasibility of applying this methodology to investment decision making, hence, demonstrating the value of this research.